Iraq Progress is a Joke?

Sometimes I wonder why I bother with this, but I guess somebody's got to do it.

The latest antiwar controversy over Iraq again involves Michael O'Hanlon and his new "Iraq Update" at the New York Times.

O'Hanlon's data confirm what's been the most important development in foreign policy over the last year: We're winning in Iraq. Take a look at the chart, comparing monthly figures:

• Civilian deaths in February 2008 are down by 2000 compared to February 2007.
• 36 U.S. soldiers died this February, compared to 81 a year ago.
• Iraqi security forces number 425,000 strong, an addition of over 100,000 troops from last year.
• Iraqi security deaths are down by 40, a statistic drawn from a larger absolute number than in February 2007.
• Daily insurgent attacks were at 65 last month, compared to 210 for February of last year.

Again, check the chart.

O'Hanlon doesn't spend too much time on the numbers in his discussion, although he does try to bring a little more rigor to the measurement of continuing progress with the introduction of a new index:

IRAQ’S security turnaround has continued through the winter. The question for 2008 is whether Iraqi security forces can preserve and build on this improvement as they increasingly bear more of the responsibility as the number of American troops declines...

The most intriguing area of late is the sphere of politics. To track progress, we have established “Brookings benchmarks” — a set of goals on the political front similar to the broader benchmarks set for Baghdad by Congress last year. Our 11 benchmarks include establishing provincial election laws, reaching an oil-revenue sharing accord, enacting pension and amnesty laws, passing annual federal budgets, hiring Sunni volunteers into the security forces, holding a fair referendum on the disputed northern oil city of Kirkuk, and purging extremists from government ministries and security forces.

At the moment, we give the Iraqis a score of 5 out of 11 (our system allows a score of 0, 0.5, or 1 for each category, and is dynamic, meaning we can subtract points for backsliding). It is far too soon to predict that Iraq is headed for stability or sectarian reconciliation. But it is also clear that those who assert that its politics are totally broken have not kept up with the news.

This is an op-ed piece, so we'd need to see an elaboration of the statistical indicators for each category under analysis (see O'Hanlon's earlier Brookings essay for a bit more complete discussion, minus the "Brooking Benchmarks"). Unfortunately, O'Hanlon doesn't do this, and his failure to provide a link to a larger database is problematic for political consumption (he thus sets himself up for abuse).

Still, especially on government reform, O'Hanlon's markers match up with other various analyses pointing to Iraq's political progress resulting from increased military security (as measured by Congress' own benchmarks of Iraq success).

Now, we've seen a few new outbursts of terrorist violence over the weekend and this morning, which goes to show that for all of our success, significant challenges in both the military and political realms remain.

But to hear the left blogosphere discuss the situation, you'd think it was all a joke. O'Hanlon's been a source of ongoing ridicule on the left, which has questioned his progressive national security credentials follwing his favorable reports on the war. For example, O'Hanlon and Kenneth Pollack set off a firestorm last year with a report that suggested the U.S. would prevail in Iraq.

So it's no suprise to see the lefty blogger-kiddies up in arms about O'Hanlon's latest update. Matthew Yglesias goes so far as to compare "Brookings Benchmarks" to "Disney Dollars":

I think Brookings Benchmarks are kind of like Disney Dollars, i.e. funny money.

So, it's a joke: Real military success and political progress, discussed in an op-ed report, is equivalent to corporate play-money tokens sold by Walt Disney?

I've said many times that no amount of progress in Iraq will satisfy the nihilist antiwar contingent.

While Americans are fighting and dying for the consolidation of a free and democratic Iraq, we've got beer-addled leftist bloggers (and obviously self-proclaimed experts in strategic studies) watching the news on TV, pounding-down a few pale ales, and pumping-out blog posts at some dirty Washington flophouse.

Well, don't that beat all - and to this is what the Democratic candidates and the congressional majority pander?

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Photo Credit: Los Angeles Times