Tuesday, December 20, 2011

Death of Kim Jong Il Creates New Layer of Risk to East Asia

The Los Angeles Times examines the impact of Kim's death on the regional economy, "Kim Jong Il's death could upset regional economy in Asia."


And at New York Times, "In Kim's Death, an Extensive Intelligence Failure."

Also, this morning's Wall Street Journal has the don't miss lead editorial, "Breaking the Kim Dynasty":
Kim maintained power by promoting a sense of siege aimed at the U.S. and its "puppet regime" in South Korea. Demonstrating loyalty to reunification on Pyongyang's terms and to the Kim family that personifies this goal is the key to advancement in the North. Nuclear weapons are crucial to this agenda, both as a bargaining chip to seek cash from the West and as a deterrent to any attempt to promote regime change. That last point is a warning about the horrendous long-term cost of letting Iran get the bomb.

Kim's death is producing the inevitable hopes that his successors will change all this and seek an opening to the world. The immediate likelihood is remote. Power has been centralized in the Kim family, including Kim Jong Il's sister and her husband, who may play the role of regent during the coming years.

Kim only began to install his youngest son, the 20-something Kim Jong Eun, as successor in the last few years, but he has also quickly picked up the terror mantle. North Korean propaganda suggests that the youngest Kim was behind the unprovoked sinking of a South Korean navy ship and the shelling of Yeonpyeong Island last year. A measure of the regime's danger is that South Korea went on high alert upon news of Kim's death, and the White House issued a sensible statement pledging to maintain stability on the Korean peninsula and support America's allies in the region.
Don't expect much change under Kim the Younger.

And more at Wall Street Journal, from John Bolton, "'The Great Successor'," and Melanie Kirkpatrick, "The World's Most Repressive State."

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