And now here's this, at the Hill, "Turnout fears mount for Dems":
The Democratic Party's worst fears about the midterm election look to be coming true.More. (Via Memeorandum.)
Polling in recent weeks suggests turnout on Election Day could be very low, even by the standards of recent midterms. That’s bad news for Democrats because core groups in the liberal base are more likely to stay home than are people in the demographic segments that lean Republican.
A Gallup poll last week found that voters are less engaged in this year's midterms than they were in 2010 and 2006. Only 33 percent of respondents said they were giving at least “some” thought to the upcoming midterms, compared to 46 percent in 2010 and 42 percent in 2006. Even more troubling for Democrats, Republicans held a 12-point advantage when those paying “some” attention were broken down by party.
Historically, the core Democratic constituencies of young people, minorities and single women are more likely to skip voting in midterm elections. The current projections suggest that months of effort by the Democratic Party to engage those groups on issues such as the minimum wage and women's pay may have been in vain.
If the numbers hold, it could mean a rout for Democrats similar to the 2010 "shellacking" — President Obama’s description — that swept away their House majority.
"We cannot have 2010 turnout. If we have 2010 turnout among our key constituencies, we're going to have 2010 all over again. It's math," said Democratic strategist Cornell Belcher, who served as a pollster for President Obama's election campaigns.
Also from Martin "Not Dead" Longman, at the Washington Monthly, "If an Election Happens in the Forest and…" (Also via Memeorandum.)
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