Saturday, September 3, 2016

The Presidential Horse Race is Tied Up in Latest IBD/TIPP Poll

Well, I think I can finally dispense with my uncertainty about the state of the race at this point. We're in a certified dead heat horse race, and I love it.

IBD's poll is very reputable, and in fact is one the most accurate surveys out there.

See, "Hillary Clinton, Donald Trump Are Tied In Latest IBD/TIPP Poll":
In a sharp turnaround in an already volatile election season, support for Hillary Clinton tumbled as Donald Trump made gains over the past month, leaving the race a virtual tie.

The latest IBD/TIPP Poll shows that Clinton is now ahead of Trump by just one percentage point, 44% to 43% among likely voters. Last month, Clinton had a seven-point lead over Trump — 46% to 39% -- among registered voters.

Clinton and Trump are tied at 39% each in a four-way matchup that includes Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson, who gets 12% support, and Green Party candidate Jill Stein, who gets 3%.

As the election nears, IBD/TIPP is narrowing the horse-race results from registered to likely voters. This month's survey included a total of 934 respondents, 887 of whom were registered voters and 861 were deemed likely voters. The margin of error for the horse-race results is +/‐3.4 percentage points. The IBD/TIPP Poll has been cited as the most accurate in the past three presidential elections.

"Two big factors are contributing to the tightening of the race," said Raghavan Mayur, president of TechnoMetrica Market Intelligence, which directs the IBD/TIPP Poll. "One is due to Trump and other due to changes in the electorate."

Trump has been widely regarded as having had a good couple of weeks — which included his visit to flood-damaged Louisiana and his meeting with Mexican President Pena Nieto, as well as an outreach to blacks and apologies for his past tone.

The IBD/TIPP Poll results show Trump made solid gains among independents, going from 36% support last month to 44% this month.

"We also see a significant spike in enthusiasm among Republicans -- the 'silent majority' is turning into a 'vocal majority,' " Mayur said. "Republicans' interest level at 88% is significantly higher than Democrats' at 80%.

Clinton, in contrast, has been hit by damaging revelations in newly released emails about the unseemly relationship between the Clinton Foundation and the State Department during her tenure as secretary of state. The news appears to be taking its toll.

Clinton's favorability rating slipped from 43% in August to 40% this month among registered voters, while Trump gained seven points. Both candidates are now tied on this score.

Meanwhile, nearly two thirds (62%) now say Clinton is "not honest or trustworthy," up from 58% in last month's poll. Trump scores comparatively much better, with 52% saying he's not honest or trustworthy, a three-point improvement from last month.

Trump also made gains in other areas. The latest poll shows that 47% now think Trump would do a better job handling the economy, vs. 43% who pick Clinton. That's almost an exact reversal from last month. And while Clinton was ahead of Trump on handling terrorism, the two are now tied on this score at 45% each.

In other bad sign for Clinton, the share of her supporters who say they back her "strongly" dropped from 51% in August to 44% in September. Trump, on the other hand, saw his strong support climb from 47% to 50%...
Still more at that top link.

If anything, it's Hillary's stumbles that account for the tightening of the race. Yeah, Trump's doing better, having a good couple of weeks, etc., but if we could just get some laser focus among the MSM on her epic scandals and corruption, we'd be able to make it a race all the way to November.