Patrick Barry and my colleague Josh Keating think I’m understating the importance of what President Obama accomplished in Moscow. So let me be clear: The arms reduction agreement and the Russian air corridor into Afghanistan aren’t small peanuts. Indeed, the latter is quite important because it will help to advance a key national interest -- success in Afghanistan. Still, we’d better not put too many of our eggs in that basket, because what Moscow giveth, Moscow can easily taketh away. And considering how many conflicts of interest we still have with Russia, even after our reset buttoning, U.S. military planners are probably not taking that air corridor as a given indefinitely.Read the whole thing, here.
As for negotiating an update to START, which expires this year -- of course we should do it, and it’s not unimportant. But would anyone drawing up a list of U.S. national interests put the negotiation of a bridge agreement for the START treaty at the top, or anywhere near the top? That’s all I’m saying. It’s a worthwhile step, but let’s put it in perspective.
Now, nonproliferation more broadly IS a national interest that I'd put at or very near the top of my list, and U.S.-Russian arms reductions are a piece of that. Furthermore, Josh is right that if your goal is "a nuclear-free world", then you have to start somewhere. Well, yes, as far as that goes. Still, no matter how clearly we meet our obligations under the NPT, and no matter how much legitimacy that adds to our argument that others should follow suit, I just don’t think that will markedly advance those goals in the real world. So by all means, let’s restart START, let's wrap our policies in whatever added legitimacy that gives us, but let’s not overstate the importance of doing so.
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Thursday, July 9, 2009
Let's Not Overstate What Obama Accomplished in Moscow...
From Christian Brose at Shadow Government, "What Did Obama Accomplish in Moscow?":
There is no reset button.
ReplyDeleteThe key here is self-interest, as in all foreign relations. Bush set up a credible relationship with Russia, yet Russia still moved on Georgia. No leader will get far with Russia. Not even a John McCain. Political reality is different from jaded American hopes and political wishful thinking. Russia will never drop support for Iran, and never submit to ballistic missiles in its backyard.
If history taught us anything, the Russian government should never be trusted beyond its own temporary and ever-changing self-interests.