Democrats Face Headaches Heading Into 2010 Midterm Elections

From Gerald Seib, "Midterms' Concrete Yet to Harden":

In a normal political cycle, Democrats would look at the electoral indicators right now and say: Get out the Tylenol, because we're going to have a big headache next year.

Here's how they can console themselves: This isn't a normal political cycle.

Indeed, we're in a period now in which down turns to up, and up to down, at about twice the normal speed. Hence, the next few months may well be more important than were the past few in setting the tone for next year's crucial midterm elections. The outcome of the pitched battle over health care, which right now is ruining many a Democrat's summer vacation, will help determine that tone, of course. But the X factor in this equation is the shape and pace of the economic recovery.

Certainly Democrats have to hope that trend lines are subject to change, because they point distinctly downward for the party right now. That's a particular problem for them, because the coming midterm is going to be an exceptionally important one, determining whether the 2008 victory by Barack Obama was the start of a long-term Democratic wave, or whether that wave will quickly hit the rocks.

The first sobering thought for Democrats is that they will be fighting history in next year's midterms. The first congressional election after a new president takes office normally is a tough one for his party, whichever party that happens to be.

Over the past century, a new president's party has lost an average of 28 seats in the House in his first midterm. Only twice during that century has the president's party managed to gain seats, most recently when George W. Bush and his Republican Party picked up eight seats in 2002, in the wake of the 2001 terrorist attacks.

Some of my thoughts are here: "The Revolt of August: GOP Sees Revival in Health Care Opposition."