On the surface, the recent slew of House Republican retirements from competitive districts should boost Democrats’ hopes of winning the majority in 2014.Continue reading.
But a closer look at these newly open seats shows that House Democrats haven’t caught a big break — at least not yet.
Two longtime House Democrats announced retirements on Wednesday, and one of those departures — Rep. Mike McIntyre of North Carolina — will surely hand his seat to the GOP. House Democrats must win a net of 17 seats to take the speaker’s gavel, and retirements so far have only offered the minority limited hope of accomplishing that.
Twelve House members have announced their retirements so far without seeking other office — nine Republicans, and three Democrats. President Barack Obama won only three of those districts in 2012, plus the vacant 13th District in Florida.
Democrats plan to shift their focus to the open-seat races created by moderate Republican retirements in a smattering of districts across the country.
“For us as a party, to be fighting for House seats in places that Barack Obama won or barely lost is always going to be better than fighting for places where Romney won big,” said Democratic consultant Travis Lowe, a former top Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee aide.
But even those districts mark difficult opportunities for Democrats — at least in a midterm cycle. The party’s top pickup opportunities in open seats currently are...
Democrats won't retake the House. The real action's over on the Senate side, and as I always say, it's gonna be a bloodbath.
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