Six-Year Itch: Historical Trends Point to Democrat Senate Loses in November

As I've written previously, the Dems are defending 20 seats out of 33 seats in play, and 13 of the 15 most vulnerable seats are in Democrat hands.

It's gonna be a bloodbath.

And now here comes Charlie Cook to throw some water on the leftist deniers of November Democrat doom, at National Journal, "Six-Year Itch Plagues Presidents in Midterms" (at Memeorandum):

Obviously, American voters do not have the date of each second-term, midterm election circled on their calendars to kick the party in the White House. But the novelty, energy, and excitement of newly elected presidents tends to dissipate in their second terms. We normally see a scarcity of new (good) ideas, and, to put it bluntly, a level of fatigue starts to plague the relationship between a president and the electorate. Statements, decisions, and policies from the first term can come back to haunt the administration during second terms. Certainly, “If you like your health insurance, you can keep it” might be a nominee in this category. Bad things tend to happen once a president reaches his second term, be they scandals, unpopular wars, economic downturns, or whatever. Think about playing the musical-chairs game, over and over again. The more times you play the game, the greater your chances of being the odd person left standing. We can see this in the way many mayors or governors who stay in office more than two terms often end up with unpleasant results.

RTWT.

PREVIOUSLY: "Republicans Poised for Big Gains in 2014 Midterms."