Republican Candidates Must Win Support of Disaffected Americans

At WSJ, "GOP Candidates Must Win Over Dissatisfied Voters":

SIMI VALLEY, Calif.—Whether or not Donald Trump remains the frontrunner for the GOP presidential nomination, his supporters will be a potent political force that other candidates must confront.

The billionaire real-estate developer’s unexpected rise—and surprisingly durable popularity—is pointing to a surly mood among GOP voters that is not going away soon.

Mr. Trump’s detractors have spent weeks trying to devise the best line of attack to dethrone him. Now, some of his rivals are turning their attention to addressing the voters whose anger, frustration and mistrust of politicians seems to have elevated him to the top.

Jeb Bush recently described himself, as governor of Florida a decade ago, as a “disrupter” who upended the status quo in Tallahassee. Sen. Marco Rubio, reaching for ordinary-guy authenticity, is airing ads with “unedited” footage of him driving around Miami. Sen. Ted Cruz amplified his own anti-establishment message by inviting Mr. Trump to join him at a protest rally on the Capitol lawn.

“I don’t think there’s ever been a time when Washington has been more out of touch with the lives of everyday people than it is right now,” Mr. Rubio said in Iowa last weekend. “Both parties quite frankly are to blame. People want leaders who know what life is like in the real world.”

Wednesday night’s televised CNN debate will give GOP candidates another chance to attack Mr. Trump, empathize with his supporters, or both. Their calculations could carry big consequences down the road: If the party’s nominee moves too far to the right on issues such as immigration or bashes Washington with too much gusto, the GOP could lose general-election support from minorities and swing voters who are less hostile to government.

In the six weeks since the first GOP primary debate, there has been growing evidence of deep voter disaffection with Washington and the political establishment. In the shifting polls since then, candidates with the most experience have tended to lose ground while the least experienced candidates have surged.

According to polling averages compiled by Real Clear Politics, the candidates drawing more support are Messrs. Trump and Cruz, retired neurosurgeon Ben Carson and former Hewlett-Packard executive Carly Fiorina. Those who have lost ground include Messrs. Bush, Paul, and Rubio, as well as Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker and former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee.
“I like that Trump is throwing things out there,” said Gaige Gill, a social studies teacher in Mapleton, Iowa, as he waited to catch a glimpse of the real estate mogul at a tailgate party at Iowa State University last weekend. “I don’t know if that makes him a good president.”

The stiffest challenge to Mr. Trump’s dominance now is from Mr. Carson, another political amateur. In the latest New York Times/CBS poll, Republicans who favored those two candidates alone accounted for half of those surveyed...