The heated rhetoric and large candidate field have made the Republican primary race look loud and messy. But here’s a simple way to view the landscape: The GOP electorate is divided into three, broad groups, each roughly equal in size.Yes, but be sure to click through to the graphics. Trump pulls in 57 percent of the social conservatives (Cruz's base), which is more than Marco Rubio pulls in of the Trump voters. So, it's a matter of perspective. I'm discounting so-called establishment voters in this poll, mainly because we're talking about the primaries, and secondly I see the establishment folks like Rubio as the extreme long-shots. So, it's going to be interesting once we see the shakeout from both Iowa and New Hampshire.
There is the socially conservative wing, which has elevated Sen. Ted Cruz and Ben Carson. The GOP’s establishment-friendly, more-centrist wing backs Sen. Marco Rubio and a few others. And then there are the Donald Trump voters, a largely working-class and male group drawn together by Mr. Trump’s unique persona and, in large measure, his promise to end illegal immigration.
With about one-third of voters in each camp, according to indications seen in December Wall Street Journal/NBC News polling, the stage is set for some drama: Which candidate has the crossover appeal needed to win majority support? Once Iowa and New Hampshire start to winnow the field, which surviving candidate has the most room to grow?
The short answer, based on Journal/NBC News poll results: As of now, Mr. Cruz looks well-positioned to draw voters from outside his cadre of social conservatives, presuming he does well in one of the first two races. Mr. Rubio also shows signs of crossover appeal beyond his establishment lane.
Donald Trump, by contrast, doesn’t show as strong a pull beyond his own set of supporters. And it will come as little surprise, given his standing in the polls, that Jeb Bush would have a challenge even if he scored well in the early balloting...
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