Wednesday, July 8, 2009

The Obamafication of Great Power Arms Control

Conservatives knew Barack Obama lacked gravitas over two years ago. And now we're starting to see the rest of the country catch on. Folks are getting hip to the Democrats' epic electoral fail of 2008.

Recall, during the first Democratic debate, in April 2007, "
Obama failed to cast himself as a forceful commander in chief." As one headline reported at the time, "Lightweight Senator Overwhelmed By Grown-ups at Adults-Only Function." And who can forget Obama's Berlin speech last summer? Der Spiegel asked, "Is Obama Speech Site Contaminated by Nazi Past?" And we saw this from Michelle Malkin, "Next Stop, Germany: Ich bin ein beginner!":

So, let's just consider President Obama's U.S.-Russia summit this week. It's one more indication of the woeful unseriousness of this man and his administration. The highlights are at
Memeorandum. CNN has a story on Sasha and Malia Obama, "Obama Girls Take Russia by Storm." Plus, the New York Times follows up with, "Family Night for Obamas Miffs Some in Moscow."

It turns out that the Russian people haven't lost their faculties over this American president. As
Fausta indicates, "The Russians ...having lived with centuries’ worth of narcissistic egotists passing as heads of state, were underwhelmed by Obama..."

The president himself remains inside
a narcissisitic bubble and the rest of the world can only watch dumfounded as this administration sleepwalks through history.

Compare that meme to this article on earlier eras of superpower arms control, "
U.S.-Russia Talks Yield No Breakthroughs":

There was a time when an American president would travel to Moscow for a summit and the world watched intently to see if history would be made.

These days, most people seem prepared to settle for more modest outcomes.

That was the ambiguous result of Barack Obama's first trip as president to meet with his Russian counterparts. Obama came away from two days of talks with important, if not momentous, agreements to renew nuclear arms talks and allow U.S. warplanes to fly through Russian airspace on their way to Afghanistan.

But long-standing differences -- on U.S. missile defense plans, human rights and the response to Iran's nuclear ambitions -- remained unbridged.

Nor was it certain that Obama succeeded in his attempt to overcome years of deteriorating relations and alleviate wider Russian mistrust of U.S. aims by speaking over the heads of the country's elite to those outside the realm of power.

In a bit of characteristic stagecraft, the president took his message to a large assembly of the young and educated, speaking at the commencement ceremonies of the New Economic School. He reminded Russians of their nation's shared sacrifice with the United States in defeating fascism in the mid-20th century, and said that 21st century America was not trying to hold the country back.

"Let me be clear: America wants a strong, peaceful and prosperous Russia," Obama said. "This belief is rooted in our respect for the Russian people, and a shared history between our nations that goes beyond competition."

But none of Russia's domestic television channels carried the speech live. And the event was more heavily attended by Western-leaning intelligentsia and business community representatives than by members of Russia's ruling elite. News programs later played clips of the speech -- with newscasters adding pointedly that Obama's arrival onstage interrupted the distribution of diplomas to the school's students.
Behold the Obamafication of great power arms control.

The Russians don't care about this man, despite the president's displeasure at not being feted like a Victorian-era European head of state.

Meanwhile, the enduring logic of international politics continues its unavoidabe grind: "
Russia Itches for Another Georgian War."

Election 2012 can't come fast enough, especially for those who called this a massive presidential fail before the Democrats sealed the deal.

Mom Leaves Kids in Maggot-Filled Home to Get High; L.A. Cracks Down on Pot Dispensaries, No Word From Will Wilkinson!

A mother in Cypress, California, allegedly left her two young daughters alone overnight in a maggot-infested house. Toilets were overflowing and trash piled everywhere. The Los Angeles Times has a report, "Mom Allegedly Leaves Kids in Maggot-Filled Home." Here's the video from KTLA-TV, Los Angeles, "Police: Mom Leaves Kids Alone in Maggot-Filled Home, Smokes Pot":


In other local news, the City of Los Angeles is cracking down on the area's unregulated medical marijuana dispensaries, "L.A. Targets Cannabis Clubs":

Daniel Halbert moved here from Phoenix this year to invest his life savings in what he hoped was a golden opportunity: the medical-marijuana business.

But on Tuesday, the Los Angeles City Council told him to shut down his dispensary, part of a broad crackdown against a growing and unregulated marijuana industry. More than 600 dispensaries have taken advantage of a loophole in city regulations to open shop here in the past two years.

The unchecked growth has alarmed some city leaders.

"They were like a rash," said City Councilman Ed Reyes, who is leading the effort to shut down many of the dispensaries. He said a colleague told him that at one dispensary near a high school, the student crowds outside made the pot store look "like an ice cream shop from the 1950s."
Once again, I'm going to express my disagreement with the libertarian/legalization crowd. Remember, "I Don't Smoke Pot, and I Don't Like It."

No report on this yet from
Will "I'm a Stoner" Wilkinson, who has argued that "the drug war is stupid." Probably out rolling a fat one at this moment!

Related: R.S. McCain, "Attention, police: Arrest Will Wilkinson!"

Can Palin Ever Come Back?

From Camille Paglia's, "Can Palin Ever Come Back?":

Whether Palin has a national future or not will depend on her willingness to hit the books at some point and absorb more information about international history and politics than she has needed to know in her role as governor. She also needs a shrewder, cooler take on the mainstream media, with its preening bullies, cackling witches, twisted cynics and pompous windbags. The Northeastern media establishment is in decline, and everyone knows it. Palin should not have gotten into a slanging match with David Letterman or anyone else who has been obsessively defaming her or her family. Let surrogates do that stuff.

The vicious double standard is pretty obvious. Only the tabloids, for example, ran the photos of a piss-drunk Chelsea Clinton, panties exposed, falling into her car outside London clubs a few years ago. If Chelsea had been the scion of Republican bigwigs, those tacky scenes would have been trumpeted from pillar to post in the U.S. as signals of parental failures or turmoil in clan Clinton. As a Democrat, I detest the partisan machinations that have become standard in Northeastern news management and that are detectable in editorial decisions at major metropolitan newspapers nationwide. It's why I, like a host of others, have shifted my news gathering to the Web.
See also, Dan Riehl, "Paglia's Advice For Sarah Palin." And Memeorandum.

Plus, my take is here: "Can Palin Win the 2012 GOP Nomination?"

Cynthia McKinney: 'Letter from an Israeli Jail'

The background is here, from AP's recent report on Cynthia McKinney, "Israel Deports Gaza Boat Activists, Including Former US Congresswoman, Nobel laureate."

Now former Representative McKinney has released a statement in the mold of Martin Luther King, Jr.: "
Letter from an Israeli Jail":
During Operation Cast Lead, U.S.-supplied F-16's rained hellfire on a trapped people. Ethnic cleansing became full scale outright genocide. U.S.-supplied white phosphorus, depleted uranium, robotic technology, DIME weapons, and cluster bombs - new weapons creating injuries never treated before by Jordanian and Norwegian doctors. I was later told by doctors who were there in Gaza during Israel's onslaught that Gaza had become Israel's veritable weapons testing laboratory, people used to test and improve the kill ratio of their weapons.

The world saw Israel's despicable violence thanks to al-Jazeera Arabic and Press TV that broadcast in English. I saw those broadcasts live and around the clock, not from the USA but from Lebanon, where my first attempt to get into Gaza had ended because the Israeli military rammed the boat I was on in international water ... It's a miracle that I'm even here to write about my second encounter with the Israeli military, again a humanitarian mission aborted by the Israeli military.

The Israeli authorities have tried to get us to confess that we committed a crime ... I am now known as Israeli prisoner number 88794. How can I be in prison for collecting crayons to kids?

Zionism has surely run out of its last legitimacy if this is what it does to people who believe so deeply in human rights for all that they put their own lives on the line for someone else's children. Israel is the fullest expression of Zionism, but if Israel fears for its security because Gaza's children have crayons then not only has Israel lost its last shred of legitimacy, but Israel must be declared a failed state.

I am facing deportation from the state that brought me here at gunpoint after commandeering our boat. I was brought to Israel against my will. I am being held in this prison because I had a dream that Gaza's children could color & paint, that Gaza's wounded could be healed, and that Gaza's bombed-out houses could be rebuilt.

But I've learned an interesting thing by being inside this prison. First of all, it's incredibly black: populated mostly by Ethiopians who also had a dream ... like my cellmates, one who is pregnant. They are all are in their twenties. They thought they were coming to the Holy Land. They had a dream that their lives would be better ... The once proud, never colonized Ethiopia [has been thrown into] the back pocket of the United States, and become a place of torture, rendition, and occupation. Ethiopians must free their country because superpower politics [have] become more important than human rights and self-determination.

My cellmates came to the Holy Land so they could be free from the exigencies of superpower politics. They committed no crime except to have a dream. They came to Israel because they thought that Israel held promise for them. Their journey to Israel through Sudan and Egypt was arduous. I can only imagine what it must have been like for them. And it wasn't cheap. Many of them represent their family's best collective efforts for self-fulfilment. They made their way to the United Nations High Commission for Refugees. They got their yellow paper of identification. They got their certificate for police protection. They are refugees from tragedy, and they made it to Israel only after they arrived Israel told them "there is no UN in Israel."
Read the full letter at the link.

See also, Fox News, "
McKinney Returns to U.S. After Release From Israeli Jail."

Related: Israel Matzav, "
Palestinians' Allowed to Travel Freely in Judea and Samaria."

Tuesday, July 7, 2009

Can Palin Win the 2012 GOP Nomination?

The ongoing Sarah Palin drama is almost as bad the media extravaganza for the Michael Jackson memorial (here)!

So what to make of Dan Riehl's latest essay, "Why It's Time To Move Beyond Sarah Palin"?

As a Palin fan, I wanted to re-visit this John Fund piece I previously linked after taking some time to consider the implications of what appears to be a thoughtful, balanced and fair analysis surrounding Palin's recent resignation. Given the facts, it is all but impossible to see her as a viable presidential contender in the near term. And we need a good one in 2012 in the face of Obama's ever growing agenda ....

I believe she is a fine person with much to give to and do for America and conservatism. But I hope it isn't about running for president in 2012. I simply can't judge her ready for that given everything we've seen. I wish it were possible to reach a different conslusion. Unfortunately, right now I can't.

My position all along has been that Palin will be the odds-on frontrunner in 2016, assuming that Barack Obama is reelected to a second term.

Yet, as
Chris Cillizza laid out recently, all signs are pointing to a Palin candidacy in 2012. She's the "it girl" of American politics. She continues to have a huge block of support among the conservative base of the Republican Party. But even more importantly, from Gallup's new survey: "The poll finds 70% saying their opinion of Palin has not changed as a result of her resignation" (via Memeorandum).

That's big, and it's still two and a half years before the first caucuses and primaries. Pamela Geller is pumped, "PALIN LEADS POLLS! The Coming of the Second American Revolution." And as Jennifer Rubin notes, "If the Alaska governor can learn the hard lessons of the last few months, her career may not be over."

In fact, contrary to Dan Riehl's fears, the decisions surrounding Palin's resignation may eventually be less important than how well she positions herself for a run in the primaries. Palin's two biggest goals can be summed up thus: Iowa and New Hampshire. Politically, Palin needs money. Both Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama raised $100 million in 2007, the year leading into the primaries. The "entry fee" for the 2012 primaries will probably be twice that.

A good early indicator of Palin's donor power will be in how quickly she retires the $500,000 in legal bills she racked up defending against ethics charges. After that, let's see how well she performs in the money race. Readers should check this long comment at Conservatives for Sarah Palin, from March of this year, speculating on a Palin 2012 run for the nomination. The main suggestion at that time? Decline a second term as Alaska's governor, then, build a massive war chest for 2012:

... I believe that Sarah Palin should not run for re-election if she means to pursue the presidency in 2012.

Folks, $100m is a lot of money. I believe that SarahPAC can raise that kind of money or even more by November 2010. SarahPAC has the potential to match the $749m that Obama raised for his entire 2008 campaign.

I have no doubt that Palin can raise the $100 million, and with $200 million she'll deter a number of other second-tier candidates from throwing their hats in the ring.

But what else? If she'll have popular support, and money, what else does Sarah Palin need? Well, as Fred Barnes noted yesterday, Palin is awash in charisma and magnetism, but she needs "experience in office and enough knowledge of foreign and domestic issues to talk about them persuasively." For 2012, she's going to have to (1) develop a compelling narrative for her campaign that also works to mute criticism of her early departure from office, and (2) build up a substantial base of policy knowledge.

These are large tasks, but not insurmountable. As for the narrative, Palin should form a campaign organization right away. Someone remind her (or her advisors) that President Bill Clinton ran an effective ad campaign against the GOP in June 1995 (pushing for an assault weapons ban). And in November 1995, Clinton hammered Republicans on "Medicare and Medicaid, education, and the environment." Since Clinton, as the incumbent president, was assured the Democratic nomination, the practical effect was that the 1996 general election campaign began in the summer of 1995.

On policy knowledge, Palin needs to write her tell-all book from the 2008 campaign. She'll need to begin a wonkish speaking tour on her specialties of energy, the environment, and free-market economics. On foreign policy, she'll help herself with travel and by gaining the advice and consent of top experts in foreign relations.

But most of all, she cannot continue to be dragged into the vindictive politics of personal destruction. After she leaves office at the end of this month, she'll need to recede from the media glare on start amassing her campaing war chest. The expertise will come in time, although as much as I love her, my hunch in that she wouldn't be damaged politically be skipping the 2012 election cycle. That situtation is looking increasingly unlikely (IMHO) so she'll need to fire up some version of the strategic plan I've laid out here.

Still More on Palin's Resignation...

From Victor Davis Hanson, "Sarah Palin and Her Critics":

Smart women do not get pregnant when it is inconvenient, especially when it interferes with one’s cursus honorum. Palin foolishly had a baby as governor, and waddled around with it the entire time-with other snotty kids in tow (just like those trashy folk at the mall who pile out of the Tahoe, in the way just as you are parking your Volvo)! And worse, in the age of sonograms and abortion, she delivered a mentally-challenged child. And worse still, the mom of five encouraged her daughter to deliver an out-of-wedlock child. (Is it in Oklahoma or Arkansas where moms and daughters have children about the same time?) And which is worse, to have a kid at 17 or one after 40? And worse, worse yet, she does not support abortion! Here is Hell in Sarah Palin’s world: I am up for a promotion at CNN, foolishly become pregnant at 42, and discover “it” has chromosomal “issues”. Am I supposed to deliver this thing? I don’t think so (nor would my daughter, should she become pregnant by her boyfriend the summer before starting off at Vassar [all that SAT camp for nothing?]).
Lots more at the link.

Helpful Vocabulary Hint: "cursus honorum."

Check also a real good piece at PoliGazette, "
Feminist Hatred of Palin."

And via
Memeorandum, see also, Kate Snow, "Sarah Palin: Why She Resigned," and "TIME's Interview with Exiting Alaska Governor Sarah Palin."

Plus, from the New York Times, "
On Politics Reading (Too Much?) Into Palin's Resignation." And don't miss, John Fund, "Why Palin Quit: Death by a Thousand FOIAs."

Andrew Sullivan Has Truly Lost His Mind

I've been saying it for some time. But Dan Riehl's got the goods on Andrew Sullivan, "Sullivan Has Truly Lost It Over Palin":
Sullivan seems trapped in some unfortunate reality in which he so has to demonize anyone he's opposed to politically, it really does suggest serious emotional issues of some sort. Whatever Sullivan may have been at one point, people who still believe he's even a semi-honest broker in touch with objective reality are just fooling themselves ...

It's beyond funny, into the realm of the sick, or disturbed.
Yep, it sure is.

What's also beyond funny is no matter how wrong, Sullivan remains
widely cited by the netroots hordes (even though he's "not really a leftist").

Dan has
more.

Meanwhile, Sullivan's scheming away again, this time with a "
roundup of lies."

Related: The Rhetorican, "More “Salons” In the News."

Coming to America, For Health Care!

There's currently some big attention at Memeorandum to health care politics. See, the Wall Street Journal, "White House Open to Deal on Public Health Plan." And the Huffington Post, "President Tries To Put Out Fire From Emanuel's Health Care Remarks." It turns out that President Obama's not too happy with Chief of Staff Rahm Emanuel. See, "Obama to Rahm: Shut. Up."

Here's some video, in any case:



More at Memeorandum.

Added: Jake Tapper, "MoveOn Pulls the "Trigger" on Rahm."

Rule 5 Rescue: Afternoon Ordnance Porn!

I'm a little short on hot cover girls at the moment. So, I just checked over at Theo Spark's for some Rule 5 material. Tonight's "Bedtime Totty" was a little too hot, but scrolling down we find this ultra cool video from the Oklahoma Full Auto-Shoot Trade Show:


As always, this is a chance to send some link love to my blogging friends and allies.

I owe The Classical Liberal a big shout out, so enjoy, "
What Everybody Ought to Know About Sarah Palin." Plus, No Sheeples Here! has been getting really hot with the Memeorandum action of late. See her post, "We The Common Trash" (featured at this Memeorandum thread last night).

Okay, I also need to thank
Dan Riehl and Jonn Lilyea for the links, and don't miss Dan Collins' blog, Piece of Work in Progress, which is progressing along quite well.

Check out my friend Cassandra as well,
Villainous Company. And Steven Givler too.

Maggie's Farm is always a good read, with lots of links are resources; but check The Rhetorican too, who's got a timely post up right now, "The Best Liveblogging of the Jackson Memorial..."

And more Rule 5 video-blogging at TrogloPundit, "
Yeah, but…if the instructor isn’t wearing anything, will the instructees really listen?'

And don't forget to visit some of my other friends:
Jammie Wearing Fool, Dr. Helen, Laura Elizabeth Morales, Charles G. Hill , Blueshelled, The Nose on Your Face, All-American Blogger, Paco Enterprises, The Conservatives Who Say F*ck, Joust The Facts, Panhandle Poet, Steven Givler, The Astute Blogger, Chris Wysocki, Moonbattery, Sweating Through the Fog, Three Beers Later, PA Pundits, Sister Toldjah, Blazing Cat Fur, The Daley Gator, Just One Minute, Dave's World, The Oklahoma Patriot, Right Wing Sparkle, Conservatism With Heart, Duck of Minerva, Wolf Howling, Right Wing Nation, Right Wing Nuthouse, Melissa Clouthier, Steve Bartin's Newsalert, The Western Experience, ShrinkWrapped, The Average American, Paco Enterprises, Ken Davenport, Doug Ross Journal, The Blog Prof, Fausta's Blog, Clueless Emma, Obob's World, Seymour Nuts, Red State, Dr. Sanity, The Desert Glows Green, Not One Red Cent, Vinegar and Honey, Dan Collins, Scott Kingsmore, The Astute Bloggers, The BoBo Files, Grant Jones, Tapline, New Testament News, Wizbang, William Jacobson, Phyllis Chesler, Right View from the Left Coast, Generation Patriot, Macsmind, Flopping Aces, Edge's Conservative Movies, Stop the ACLU, Snooper's Report, Grandpa John's, Cranky Conservative, Jimmie Bise, Little Miss Attila, Moe Lane, Private Pigg, Pundit & Pundette, The Rhetorican, R.S. McCain, Saber Point, Stephen Kruiser, Suzanna Logan, GrEaT sAtAn'S gIrLfRiEnD, TrogloPundit, Villainous Company, PoliGazette, Prying 1, Paula in Israel, Pamela Geller, Vanessa's Blog, Pat's Daily Rants, Bob's Bar & Grill, Power Line, Melanie Morgan, Dave in Boca, Neo-Neocon, Right in a Left World, Flag Gazer, Stephen Green, The Tygrrrr Express, The News Factor, Israel Matsav, The Conservative Manifesto, Gates of Vienna, Sparks From the Anvil, Gateway Pundit, Political Pistachio, Liberty Pundit, Not One Red Cent, Right Truth, Dave's Notepad, The Red Hunter, Maggie's Farm, The Next Right, This Ain't Hell, Stop the ACLU, Politics and Critical Thinking, Riehl World View, Midnight Blue, Caroline Glick, The Griper, FouseSquawk, The Other McCain, Cheat Seeking Missiles, Roger Simon, Classical Values, Samantha Speaks, Grizzly Mama, The Capitol Tribune, The Patriot Room, The Real World, RADARSITE, Serr8d's Cutting Edge, Bloviating Zeppelin, Born Again Redneck The Educated Shoprat, St. Blogustine, Yid With Lid, Pondering Penguin, Betsy's Page, The Anchoress, Ace of Spades HQ, Right Wing Sparkle, Thunder Run, The Classic Liberal, Conservative Grapevine, Cassy Fiano, Jim Treacher, NetRightNation, Q and O, Urban Grounds, Ed Driscoll, Cold Fury, Michelle Malkin, Neptunus Lex, Neo-Neocon, The Liberty Papers, The Monkey Cage, Law and Order Teacher, Mike's America, AubreyJ, Dan Collins, Track-a-'Crat, The Jungle Hut, Wake Up America, Dan Riehl, Nikki's Blog, Big Girl Pants, Maggie's Notebook, Hummers & Cigarettes, Mark Goluskin, Jawa Report, Darleen Click, The Skepticrats, Sarge Charlie, Thoughts With Attitude, Kim Priestap, Swedish Meatballs Confidential, Five Feet of Fury, Amy Proctor, Blonde Sagacity, Liberty Papers, TigerHawk, Point of a Gun, Right Wing News, And So it Goes in Shreveport, Nice Deb, Becky Brindle, Fishersville Mike, Monique Stuart, No Sheeples Here!, Dana at CSPT, Glenn Reynolds, Obi’s Sister, Right Truth, Gold-Plated Witch on Wheels, Chicago Ray, Ace of Spades HQ, Natalie's Blog. Ann Althouse, Pirate's Cove, and Diminished Expectations.

Unmanned Drones and Human Tolerance

From London's Telegraph yesterday, "Unmanned Drones Could Be Banned, Says Senior Judge."

My friend Steven Givler provides a miltary analysis and critique, "
'Use of Drones Intolerable,' According to British Judge" :

Death From Above

We're at work. We're standing, eyes glued to one of the screens on the wall above us. Different images flicker elsewhere on the wall, but the one we're interested is grainy black and white video, transmitted live. We're watching because an indicator on the screen says the operator has designated a target. A moment later we get the word - a weapon has been released. Someone is about to die.

This scene has repeated itself many times over the last few days. It's one of few experiences that I've found is not diminished by repetition.

Am I remorseful? Do I feel for the men who, in a matter of seconds, will cease to exist? The place in my heart that would be occupied by remorse is scarred by images of a hostage slaughter house. The part of my mind that might harbor compassion is imagining a makeshift video studio, where Al Jazeera cameramen drank tea to the sounds of innocents' life blood gurgling in their windpipes.

The people we watch die are blissfully unaware. What are they discussing on that street corner? What is he thinking as he drives that car? Do they, for the split second before impact, wonder at the sound of wind, rushing over the stubby wings of the warhead? Even if they do - even if they hear the missile, homing inexorably from a vehicle so far away they never saw it, their brief shock is nothing to me. The searing flash, the concussion that separates their body from their soul bothers me not a bit. It is merciful.

It is not the weeks or months-long separation from friends and family, being held like livestock for a bargain that will never be struck. It is not the desperate sickness that invades the heart, knowing you will never see your family again. It is not the terror of knowing your captors consider you most valuable when your head is severed, dangling from their bloody fist in a television commercial for evil. It is not the grinding by of countless hours of loneliness and fear.

It is quick. It is better than they deserve. Far from regret, I am grimly satisfied at my role in this process.

Maybe it shocks you that I can appreciate beauty, love my family, and calmly contemplate killing men. It shouldn't. The understanding of good and evil and the willingness to act in the differentiation between them is fundamental to those more appealing characteristics.

I'm still me.

The full essay at the link.

Steven is a Major with the United States Air Force, and an Assistant Air Attache at the U.S. Embassy, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia.

Thanks to Steven and all of our men and women who fight for us everday.

Obama U.S.-Russia Nuke Partnership Belies 'Realist' Foreign Policy Creds

We've heard much applause of late for "Obama's Realism on Iran."

Stephen Walt, perhaps our most important contemporary realist scholar,
recently praised President Obama's "measured tone" on Iran as "sensible."

Daniel Larison, whose foreign policy I recently critiqued,
adds this:
Obama does seem to understand that foreign policy is a matter of state interests, and that Iran and America have some shared interests regardless of the shape of the government in Tehran. His foremost responsibility is to secure American interests, and reasonably enough this involves rapprochement with Iran, so you’d better believe that he is not going to put the cause of Mousavi ahead of that of the United States.
It's unfortunate, but from my perspective the current rage for a realist orientation to foreign affairs is simply a cover for those inclined to pacifist isolationism (with sprinklings of Israel-bashing for good measure). This new realism is adopted to "provide academic cover to a postmodern epistemology of appeasement and weakness."

I'm a student of realism as well. I've always loved the theory's parsimonious rationalism. We've seen the paradigm expand in the last couple of decades to include all kinds of emendations and offshoots, but the fundamentals of practical realism endure.

I'm thinking about this in reading Henry Kissinger's interview at Der Spiegel, "
Obama Is Like a Chess Player." To Kissenger, one of the 20th century's greatest realist policymakers, President Obama is less the realist than a potential Wilsonian idealist. And hence, his foreign policy could promote the same crises and disasters that the country saw in earlier decades of international politics. Here's Kissinger on Obama's current moves in world politics:

SPIEGEL: Do you think it was helpful for Obama to deliver a speech to the Islamic world in Cairo? Or has he created a lot of illusions about what politics can deliver?

Kissinger: Obama is like a chess player who is playing simultaneous chess and has opened his game with an unusual opening. Now he's got to play his hand as he plays his various counterparts. We haven't gotten beyond the opening game move yet. I have no quarrel with the opening move.

SPIEGEL: But is what we have seen so far from him truly realpolitik?

Kissinger: It is also too early to say that. If what he wants to do is convey to the Islamic world that America has an open attitude to dialogue and is not determined on physical confrontation as its only strategy, then it can play a very useful role. If it were to be continued on the belief that every crisis can be managed by a philosophical speech, then he will run into Wilsonian problems.

Well, if Cairo was Obama's "first move," it's not in Iran where we can measure the administration's foreign policy acumen. It's in Russia. And it's there where we're seeing Obama running into those "Wilsonian problems" of which Kissinger warns.

President Obama is now wrapping up this week's
U.S.-Russia summit. He signed yesterday, with Russian President Dmitry Medvedev, a rough draft of a new nuclear arms-control treaty. In a speech today, the President said:
America wants a strong, peaceful, and prosperous Russia. This belief is rooted in our respect for the Russian people, and a shared history between our nations that goes beyond competition ....

So as we honor this past, we also recognize the future benefit that will come from a strong and vibrant Russia. Think of the issues that will define your lives: security from nuclear weapons and extremism; access to markets and opportunity; health and the environment; an international system that protects sovereignty and human rights, while promoting stability and prosperity. These challenges demand global partnership, and that partnership will be stronger if Russia occupies its rightful place as a great power.

Yet unfortunately, there is sometimes a sense that old assumptions must prevail, old ways of thinking; a conception of power that is rooted in the past rather than in the future. There is the 20th century view that the United States and Russia are destined to be antagonists, and that a strong Russia or a strong America can only assert themselves in opposition to one another. And there is a 19th century view that we are destined to vie for spheres of influence, and that great powers must forge competing blocs to balance one another.

These assumptions are wrong. In 2009, a great power does not show strength by dominating or demonizing other countries. The days when empires could treat sovereign states as pieces on a chess board are over. As I said in Cairo, given our independence, any world order that -- given our interdependence, any world order that tries to elevate one nation or one group of people over another will inevitably fail. The pursuit of power is no longer a zero-sum game -- progress must be shared.

That's why I have called for a "reset" in relations between the United States and Russia. This must be more than a fresh start between the Kremlin and the White House -- though that is important and I've had excellent discussions with both your President and your Prime Minister. It must be a sustained effort among the American and Russian people to identify mutual interests, and expand dialogue and cooperation that can pave the way to progress.
In both words and tone, the president's speech evinces the same Wilsonianism that led to the disastrous institutional paralysis of the interwar era. It is the same kind of happy talk that we might find in the text of the Kellogg-Briand Pact. And for President Obama, this is not the talk of a president seeking to increase a momentary burst of bilateral comity and opportunity. It's not a Reykjavik moment marking a great thaw in decades of Cold War hostility, paving the way for a epochal change in the international system. We're at no crossroads to the end of great power competition. No, with this administration's strategic moves in Moscow, we're seeing the beginning implementation of Barack Obama's plan for a nuclear-free world.

Recall the New York Times article published over the weekend, "
Obama’s Youth Shaped His Nuclear-Free Vision." According to the piece, President Obama ...
... has begun pushing for new global rules, treaties and alliances that he insists can establish a nuclear-free world ....

.... no previous American president has set out a step-by-step agenda for the eventual elimination of nuclear arms. Mr. Obama is starting relatively small, using a visit to Russia that starts Monday to advance an intense negotiation, with a treaty deadline of the year’s end, to reduce the arsenals of the nuclear superpowers to roughly 1,500 warheads each, from about 2,200 ....

But reducing arsenals, he insisted, would be the first step toward giving the United States and a growing body of allies the power to remake the nuclear world.
It's extremely difficult for me to fathom how anyone can praise the adminstration's quest for universal disarmament as "realist." As any student of international politics will tell you, there are no permanent friends or enemies in foreign policy, only permanent interests. In one of the seminal pieces of literature from last three decades, Joseph Grieco hammered neo-institutional idealism in world politics. He noted that "the fundamental goal of states in any relationship is to prevent others from achieving advances in their relative capabilities." Indeed, states cannot be indifferent to changes in the relative material position of their potential adversaries. Even if mutual understandings toward armament reductions produce absolute gains, who actually gains more? As long as internatioanal anarchy holds, one actor may take advantage of a gap in relative capabilities to seek advantage and ultimately enslave those states now newly disadvantaged.

Moreover, the goal of a nuclear-free international system is sheer fantasy. As Kenneth Adelman remarked recently, "
If they’re dreaming of a world with no nukes, why not one of no war? Peace on earth, everywhere, forevermore."

And
here's Ralph Peters on Obama's new preliminary arms control agreement:
PRESIDENT Obama went to Moscow desperate for the appearance of a foreign-policy success. He got that illusion -- at a substantial cost to America's security.

The series of signing ceremonies in a grand Kremlin hall and the litany of agreements, accords and frameworks implied that the United States benefited from all the fuss. We didn't.

We got nothing of real importance ....

President Obama even expressed an interest in further nuclear-weapons cuts. Peace in our time, ladies and gentlemen, peace in our time . . .

We just agreed to the disarmament position of the American Communist Party of the 1950s.
This discussion puts the lie to all of the fawning accolades for Barack Obama's careful restraint and keen discernment of American national interests.

The fact is that this president is selling out U.S. national security. This is not surprising, of course: "
For the first time in US history, we have a president who hates his own country. A president who is on the side of America's enemies, not on the side of America."

See also, Atlas Shrugs, "
Media Laps Up Obama's Weak and Hopelessly Naive Capitulation to Russia." See also, Memeorandum.

The Coming Second American Revolution?

From Mark Di Ionno, "Growing Numbers at Anti-Tax 'Tea Parties' Shows a Fed Up Public":

When historians track the beginnings of the second American Revolution, their search will take them to Morristown, N.J., just like the first time.

And like the first, it will have started with a tax revolt, and anger at an unresponsive government.

Something is happening in this country. And it would be not only arrogant, but unwise, for our elected officials to ignore it.

In the past, movements like the July 4 national Tea Parties were usually sparsely populated by libertarians, radicals and reactionaries. This movement has them too, but with a whole lot more regular folks. The crowd Saturday at Morristown Green was sizable and made up of the put-upon American middle class. Instead of pitchforks and muskets, they were armed with signs, that if nothing else, show many still believe in the visions of the Founding Fathers ....

The Tea Party movement is becoming a national phenomenon. They started locally, in a few cities in a few states, just this year. But the idea is spreading as fast as the internet can take it. On April 15, tax day, there were 750 across the country. For July 4, there were 1,505. Now, a Sept. 12 taxpayer march on Washington is being planned. The number of local organizers running Tea Party groups has swelled to well over 2,000 throughout the 50 states. These could soon be the grassroots seeds of a third political party, one designed to reform government, and bring it back to basics.
Also, from Dr. Jack Wheeler at Atlas Shrugs, "The Coming Second American Revolution":


Clearly, we are no longer living in a world of normal reality. For the first time in US history, we have a president who hates his own country. A president who is on the side of America's enemies, not on the side of America ...

We have a media who reveres and worships as a demi-god a president who hates his, and their, country.

We have a government spending trillions of dollars it does not have in a seemingly determined effort to destroy everyone's life savings via inflation.

We have a Congress that passes the largest tax increase in the history of the world (literally) via a 1,300 page Climate Bill that no one has read and based on utterly fraudulent science.

We have a governor who goes so around the bend that he trashes his wife, four children, his career and life for some broad in Argentina.

We have a people who go completely bananas with grief over the suicide of a washed-up pedophilic fruitcake ex-rock star.

This is societal quantum weirdness, a dissociation from normal reality, of which additional examples could be endlessly provided. Yet extreme, unhinged, over-the-top weirdness is normally what you get when you get close to a tipping point, close to the bursting of a bubble.

Madnesses of crowds are most often economic, such as the dotcom craze or the housing bubble. A lot of folks lose a lot of money, and that's it. But when such a madness pervades an entire society, the consequences can be far more dramatic. Such a madness is often the runup to a revolution.

Revolutions are chaotic, dangerous things. We were blessed-by-Providence lucky in our first one in 1776. We got freedom and George Washington, while the French with theirs in 1789 got the guillotine and Napoleon. Which will we get in the coming Second American Revolution?
More at the link.

Added: From Heidi at Big Girl Pants, "Power Is Not a Means, It is an End. A Parable For Today."

Monday, July 6, 2009

Los Angeles Braces for Jackson Rioting: House Resolution Honors 'King of Pop'; Irony as Staples Welcomes Ringling Bros. Circus!

You heard it here first, in any case, but here's this: "Los Angeles Police Department Assistant Chief Jim MCDonnell insists Jackson fans will get no sympathy from officers, who fear the crowds could turn violent." Also, from the Los Angeles Times, "Staples Center at Core of Wide Security Cordon in Downtown L.A."

Plus, from KABC-TV Los Angeles, "
Fans to Say Goodbye to Michael Jackson":


There's some congressional action as well: The Hill has the "Full text of Michael Jackson resolution." But Representative Peter King picked the wrong time to ask, "Would you leave your children alone with Michael Jackson?" And Jackson fans are a ready political constituency: "Michael Jackson Fans Raise Money To Defeat Peter King."

And
if that's not enough:

Los Angeles city officials, burdened with a budget gap of half a billion dollars, said on Monday they were worried about the public cost of controlling the big crowd expected at the memorial for pop star Michael Jackson.

City Councilman Dennis Zine estimates the city could face $2.5 million in police and other expenses for the event on Tuesday at a downtown sports arena.

"Michael was a phenomenal entertainer, but why should the taxpayers of Los Angeles pick up this extremely high tab for security?" Zine told Reuters.
See also, "Tab on memorial running high in Los Angeles: City officials looks to Jackson's corporate connections to help foot bill."

An interesting side note, "Ringling Brothers and Barnum & Bailey starts a run at Staples Center on Wednesday. In the predawn hours before Jackson's memorial, the elephants will walk from the train station to the arena."

Here's the
television listings:

PRE-MEMORIAL SERVICE

6 a.m. "American Morning" (CNN) kicks off with Kiran Chetry in Los Angeles.

7 a.m. "The Early Show" (CBS) with Maggie Rodriguez and Harry Smith joins in from the Staples Center, and so does Meredith Vieira on "Today" (NBC).

11 a.m. MSNBC has Chris Jansing reporting live.

12 p.m. MTV and VH1 air a collection of Jackson's greatest hits and interviews; Shepard Smith starts coverage on Fox News Channel; BET begins "Forever the King: Memorial to Michael Jackson" with celebrity guest interviews; Anderson Cooper, Larry King, Don Lemon and Soledad O'Brien are on CNN; "The Bachelor" host Chris Harris anchors on TV Guide.

MEMORIAL SERVICE

1 p.m. The service at the Staples Center has no end time, but some are projecting 2:30 p.m.; networks and channels airing the service include ABC, NBC, CBS, Fox, CNN, CNN Headline News, Fox News Channel, E!, TV Guide, TV One, MTV, VH1, VH1 Classic, VH1 Soul, Telemundo and Univision.

POST-MEMORIAL SERVICE

6:30 p.m. "CBS Evening News With Katie Couric" has coverage, as does "Nightly News With Brian Williams" (NBC).

9 p.m. "20/20" (ABC) has a special edition hosted by Diane Sawyer and Barbara Walters.

10 p.m. "Primetime: Family Secrets" (ABC) focuses on the custody battle over Jackson's children with Debbie Rowe; "On the Record with Greta Van Susteren" (Fox News Channel) reports from Los Angeles; Lester Holt reports on "Dateline" with reaction from fans.

Check back here for potential riot coverage.