Obama Halloween Effigy

At CBS News, "Controversial Obama Halloween Display."

More at the Louisville Courier-Journal‎, "Effigy of President Barack Obama removed by Indiana veteran."

I guess there's mini contagion of these things. See the Los Angeles Times as well, "Halloween Obama effigy prop removed after Secret Service visit."

Romney's Killin' It With Independents in Latest Fox News Poll of Likely Voters!

See, "Three Numbers That Could Hold the Key to a Romney Win," especially the section on the independent vote:

Independents’ Day

Americans have grown largely frustrated with both parties and the trend toward political independence is really the biggest political story of the past two decades. Independent is not synonymous with moderate since voters disaffected with the partisan status quo range from very liberal to very conservative. The universe of independents is a parallel to the overall electorate, but more unpredictable in voting habits.

But with both parties dug in deeply, the independent vote is the most promising field of persuadable voters.

Self-identified Democrats usually outnumber self-identified Republicans. Republicans therefore rely on the aforementioned turnout advantage combined with support from independents to win elections. That’s certainly the case this year.

If the combination of organic enthusiasm and effective ground game for Republicans can offset the Democrats numerical advantage, then it would be support from independents that could put Romney over the top.

And in that measure, Romney is succeeding by a wide margin.

In the latest FOX News poll, Romney holds a 7-point lead among independent voters, with 16 percent on the fence or supporting a marginal candidate. Romney lost 2 points of his advantage with the group from the beginning of the month as the pool of undecided voters shrank from 25 percent.

But it seems highly unlikely that the incumbent will get half of those remaining. Of those who consider themselves unaffiliated and undecided, the challenger, especially one with majority favorability and an equally matched voter outreach, has a clear advantage over the incumbent.

And see, "Fox News poll: Race for the White House a dead heat."

Video c/o Gateway Pundit, "LANDSLIDE WATCH: Romney Holds Massive Lead Over Obama With Independent Voters …Update: Romney Up in CO, OH and IA."

Nate Silver Bets $2,000 on Obama's Reelection, Provokes Public Editor's Ire

You gotta love it. Basically, Nate Silver had a public meltdown.

From Margaret Sullivan, at the Times, "Under Attack, Nate Silver Picks the Wrong Defense."

My own Forecasting Model says there's a greater-than-zero chance that Nate Silver will be a laughingstock Nov. 7dailycaller.com/2012/11/01/is-…
— Robert Stacy McCain (@rsmccain) November 2, 2012

Read the whole thing at the link. This part's especially good:

In a phone conversation, Mr. Silver described the wager offer as “half playful and half serious.”

“He’s been on a rant, calling me an idiot and a partisan, so I’m asking him to put some integrity behind it,” he said. “I don’t stand to gain anything from it; it’s for charity.”

He added that he is feeling the strain of being under attack and vulnerable to criticism as Election Day approaches.

“It’s a high-stress time,” he said.

I can understand and sympathize with that.

But whatever the motivation behind it, the wager offer is a bad idea – giving ammunition to the critics who want to paint Mr. Silver as a partisan who is trying to sway the outcome.

You think?

PREVIOUSLY:

* "Nate Silver Fast on His Way to One-Term Celebrity."

* "Akron Beacon Poll Finds Ohio Dead Heat at 49-49 — Presidential Race Tighter Than Obama's A**hole in a Prison Shower."

* "Nate Silver: Voice of the New Castrati."

* "If Bias Doesn't Matter Why Would Bill Maher Host Nate Silver on 'Real Time'?"

* "Oh My! Romney Back Up to 51 Percent in Gallup's Daily Tracking — Nate Silver Hardest Hit!"

* "'Grand Swami' Nate Silver Boosts O's Chances to 71.0% in Electoral College!"

* "Obama Crashing in Ohio; or, For the Love of Mercy, Leave Nate Silver Alone!"

* "Nate Silver Calls It: Advantage Obama!"

* "Nate Silver's Flawed Model."

* "Boom! Romney Back Up 52-45 in Gallup's Daily Tracking of Likely Voters."

* "ABC News Touts Nate Silver's Prediction That Obama's Handicapped at 68 Percent Chance to Win!"

* "'It's becoming increasingly obvious that Silver can't be taken seriously...'"

* "Nate Silver Blows Gasket as Gallup Shows Romney Pulling Away in the Presidential Horse Race."

More later...

Mile-Long Gas Lines in New Jersey

Well, President Solyndra can visit New Jersey 100 times and folks will still be mad as hell after going through this sh*t.

At Bloomberg, "New Jersey Drivers Wait for Fuel as Sandy Curbs Gasoline."

Celebrity Halloween Costumes

I just checked Instapundit. The amount of news over there is overwhelming. I'll try to get caught up a bit through the night, although I'm beat from teaching all day, so we'll see how it goes. Folks might check Director Blue and Maggie's Farm for additional political roundups.

Oh, and don't miss Robert Stacy McCain's updates on the Robert Menendez Dominican prostitute scandal, "KYRILLOS CAMPAIGN RESPONDS TO MENENDEZ SEX ACCUSATIONS," and "BOYLE: SEN. MENENDEZ REFUSES TO RELEASE TRAVEL RECORDS."

And as for Halloween, I think the culture's gotten to that celebrity nudity and over-the-top sex displays are almost passé. I mean Lady Gaga's costume was to dress up at a topless dancer? See London's Daily Mail, "Dress code said Halloween... not porn queen! Gaga exposes her chest in barely-there marijuana costume." And Jenny McCarthy's not far behind, "Where is the rest of your costume? Jenny McCarthy celebrates Halloween and her 40th birthday dressed in raunchy lingerie."

I don't know. What ever happened to Elvira, Mistress of the Dark? Didn't see leave a little to the imagination? Well, yes. She still does, in fact.

In Deadlocked Race, Neither Side Has Ground Game Advantage

According to Pew Research.

I guess we won't know for sure until election day.

That said, Robert Stacy McCain's got the goods on Ohio, and things are trending for Mitt Romney in a big way. And see especially, "BREAKING NEWS FROM OHIO: REPUBLICAN WOMEN ARE HOT."

Check over at The Other McCain for updates.

PHOTO CREDIT: Lower the Boom.

'While My Guitar Gently Weeps'

The Sound L.A. was "Under the Covers" for Halloween, playing cover songs for the entire day. Here's Santana from about 9:00pm last night:

Classified Cable From Benghazi Warned Danger of 'Coordinated Attack' on Consulate

It's virtually Fox News that's all by itself in investigating this story, which is a sad comment on the role of the press in American democracy.

At Fox News, "Exclusive: Classified cable warned consulate couldn't withstand ‘coordinated attack’."

At the clip, Catherine Herridge says the State Department has "culpability" in the deaths of our personnel.

The Numbers Favor Mitt Romney

From Karl Rove, at the Wall Street Journal, "Sifting the Numbers for a Winner":

It comes down to numbers. And in the final days of this presidential race, from polling data to early voting, they favor Mitt Romney.

He maintains a small but persistent polling edge. As of yesterday afternoon, there had been 31 national surveys in the previous seven days. Mr. Romney led in 19, President Obama in seven, and five were tied. Mr. Romney averaged 48.4%; Mr. Obama, 47.2%. The GOP challenger was at or above 50% in 10 polls, Mr. Obama in none.

The number that may matter the most is Mr. Obama's 47.2% share. As the incumbent, he's likely to find that number going into Election Day is a percentage point or so below what he gets.

For example, in 2004 President George W. Bush had 49% in the final Gallup likely-voter track; he received 50.7% on Election Day. In 1996, President Clinton was at 48% in the last Gallup; he got 49.2% at the polls. And in 1992, President George H.W. Bush was at 37% in the closing Gallup; he collected 37.5% in the balloting.

One potentially dispositive question is what mix of Republicans and Democrats will show up this election. On Friday last week, Gallup hinted at the partisan makeup of the 2012 electorate with a small chart buried at the end of its daily tracking report. Based on all its October polling, Gallup suggested that this year's turnout might be 36% Republican to 35% Democratic, compared with 39% Democratic and 29% Republican in 2008, and 39% Republican and 37% Democratic in 2004. If accurate, this would be real trouble for Mr. Obama, since Mr. Romney has consistently led among independents in most October surveys.

Gallup delivered some additional bad news to Mr. Obama on early voting. Through Sunday, 15% of those surveyed said they had already cast a ballot either in person or absentee. They broke for Mr. Romney, 52% to 46%. The 63% who said they planned to vote on Election Day similarly supported Mr. Romney, 51% to 45%.

Well, let's not get cocky.

Leaks and Lies

Via Theo Spark:

Pastor Joseph Lowery: 'All White People Are Going to Hell...'

Well, it'd be one thing if folks were talking about Jeremiah Wright, but this guy marched with Dr. King.

Not good.

At the Washington Examiner, "Pastor who prayed at Obama’s inauguration says all white people will go to hell." (At Memeorandum.)

Also, from Diane Glidewell, "Civil rights icons pump Obama in Forsyth: Lowery, Don't think whites going to heaven."

That's how Democrats are transcending racial division, or something? Actually, I'm hopin' for some change.

Ladd Ehlinger's Retirement

From political ad production, explained at his post, "Last Political Video.

Human Rights Campaign Files Complaint Over Text Messages

At HRC, the freakin' crybabies:

HRC is calling on the Federal Communications Commission (FCC) to investigate mass spam texts that are taking aim at President Obama, marriage equality, and a number of other progressive issues. Recently, HRC supporters have received unsolicited anti-gay text messages such as: “Obama endorses the legality of same-sex marriage. Say No to Obama at the polls on Nov 6.” The Washington Post reports that the texts originated from ccAdvertising, a firm specializing in political phone and text outreach – and with a history of spamming cell phone users with unsolicited content. HRC’s letter to the FCC is available here.

Since many Americans pay for their text messages on an as-used basis, ccAdvertising is costing money to some cell phone users by spamming them with these unwanted messages.

It appears ccAdvertising tried to hide their identity on their website – a violation of the terms of service with their online host, GoDaddy. As a result, GoDaddy revoked ccAdvertising’s anonymity and their leading role in sending the text messages became clear. It remains to be seen who is funding the firm’s unsolicited anti-equality texts. The Washington Post reports that ccAdvertising’s chief operating officer is Republican Jason Flanary, who is currently running for Senate in Fairfax County, Virginia.

Shoot, if that landed in my inbox I'd forward it to everyone on my contact list. The freaks.

New Jersey Reels From Storm's Punch

The video's from Megyn Kelly's opening segment yesterday.

And at the New York Times, "New Jersey Is Reeling From Punch by a Storm":

HOBOKEN, N.J. — New Jersey was reeling on Wednesday from the impact of Hurricane Sandy, which has caused catastrophic flooding here in Hoboken and in other New York City suburbs, destroyed entire neighborhoods across the state and wiped out iconic boardwalks in shore towns that had enchanted generations of vacationgoers.

Though the storm raged up the East Coast, it has become increasingly apparent that New Jersey took the brunt of it. Officials estimated that the state suffered many billions of dollars in property damage. About a quarter of the state’s population — more than two million people — remained without power on Wednesday, and more than 6,000 were still in shelters, state emergency officials said.

At least eight people died, and officials expressed deep concerns that the toll would rise as more searches of homes were carried out.

On Wednesday, President Obama visited the state and viewed the destruction with Gov. Chris Christie.

“The entire country has been watching what’s been happening,” Mr. Obama said at a stop in Atlantic County at the Brigantine Beach Community Center in Brigantine. “Everybody knows how hard Jersey has been hit.”

Perhaps as startling as the sheer toll was the devastation to some of the state’s well-known locales. Boardwalks along the beach in Seaside Heights, Belmar and other towns on the Jersey Shore were blown away. Amusement parks, arcades and restaurants all but vanished. Bridges to barrier islands buckled, preventing residents from even inspecting the damage to their property.

Localities across New Jersey imposed curfews to prevent looting. In Monmouth, Ocean and other counties, people waited for hours for gasoline at the few stations that had electricity. Supermarket shelves were stripped bare.

Two days after Hurricane Sandy struck, such distress was not limited to New Jersey.

Continue reading.

'Bronco Bamma'

It will be over soon.

Via Memeorandum.

Democrat Sen. Bob Menendez Rumored Sex Scandal With Dominican Prostitutes?

Drudge Report had the headline earlier, "SEX SCANDAL TO HIT CAMPAIGN..."

And at The Other McCain, "BOB MENENDEZ AND HOOKERS?"

UPDATE: Shortly after the Drudge Report headline went up, my associate Ali Akbar got a tip that the story involved Sen. Menendez of New Jersey and at least one prostitute with whom he trysted on a taxpayer-funded trip to the Dominican Republic. Within one hour, Akbar had confirmed this with other sources, and we understand that numerous reporters in D.C. have heard similar reports.

Did someone say, Dominican Republic prostitutes? Anxiously awaiting The DC article that will bring Senator Bob Menendez (D-NJ) down.#tcot
— Gabriella Hoffman (@Gabby_Hoffman) November 1, 2012

Check the Daily Caller for the breaking report, and at AoSHQ, "What I'm Hearing About The Sex Scandal":

Here's what I'm hearing. And bear in mind, I'm merely hearing it.

The story involves a Senator flying down to a big donor's place in the Caribbean for orgies. Hookers are involved.

The One Big Snag in the story is that the story comes from hookers -- a couple of them, I hear -- and their credibility is, well. They're hookers. It's not Gold Standard.

Well, I guess I shouldn't call them "hookers." Let's say "escorts."

Escorts, for your penis.

UPDATE: Folks should check Ace of SpadesHQ on Twitter. He's got a lot of newsy updates, especially some thoughts on the delays.

And check this earlier entry at Twitchy, "Matt Drudge teases campaign sex scandal; Twitter speculates; Update: ‘Powerful senator’; Update: Menendez?"

BREAKING: Here's the report, "Women: Sen. Bob Menendez paid us for sex in the Dominican Republic."

A Brutal Polling Day? Not for Mitt Romney

I guess folks on the left don't really look at survey internals, which is odd, since all these drive-by commenters keep saying conservatives can't do math. Looks the other way around, frankly. A good example is this report at TPM, "After Brutal Polling Day, Romney Team Reassures That They’ll Win" (at Memeorandum).

And the evidence for these so-called "brutal" numbers for Romney? Well, an obvious outlier at National Journal that has Obama up 50-45 when no other national poll of any repute shows a spread in Obama's favor like that. Even the hopelessly Democrat-heavy New York Times/Quinnipiac poll today had a miniscule Obama edge at 48-47. And on Monday Pew Research had the race deadlocked at 47 percent, with a turnout edge for Romney.

TPM's also claiming Obama's up by five in Ohio, which is again relying on the Times/Quinnipiac survey for the Buckeye State. But as I noted this morning, NYT's Ohio numbers are badly off, way out of line with both 2008 exit polling data on Democrat and Republican turnout, as well as likely turnout numbers for the GOP this year with the enthusiasm gap taken into consideration. Bryan Preston has more on that, "That Q Poll Showing Obama Up by Five in Ohio Has a Flaw (Updated: PPP Too?)." (PPP is the far-left Kos pollster, which almost always favors Democrats and is thus widely discredited.) See Ed Morrissey on those NYT numbers as well, "Final CBS/NYT/Q-polls in OH, FL, VA show Obama up …":

In each of these three states, the CBS/NYT/Q-poll shows Republicans at a lower percentage level of turnout than in the 2008 election. If one makes that assumption, it’s not too difficult to be guess that Obama might be ahead. However, that’s exactly the opposite of what all other polls rating enthusiasm are telling us what the electorate will look like on Tuesday. In fact, it’s not even what this poll shows, with Republican enthusiasm +16 over Democrats in Florida, +14 in Ohio, and +7 in Virginia.

And to round things off, here's the poll from the University of Cincinnati's Institute for Policy Research on Ohio, which has Obama up 48-46 with a partisan breakdown of D-45, R-43 percent, and I-12 (and note that independents here, who are breaking for Romney in all other polls, are probably under-sampled, to say nothing of the over-sampled Democrats).

So, it's not Mitt Romney who's having a "brutal polling day." If anything, it's the truth that's having a "brutal honesty day." Polling methodology (i.e., math) is not hard. If progressives get it they're not letting on, which is even worse from an integrity standpoint.

Hurricane Sandy Won't Save President 'I' Candy

From Dick Morris, "Here comes the landslide":

Voters have figured out that President Obama has no message, no agenda and not even much of an explanation for what he has done over the past four years. His campaign is based entirely on persuading people that Mitt Romney is a uniquely bad man, entirely dedicated to the rich, ignorant of the problems of the average person. As long as he could run his negative ads, the campaign at least kept voters away from the Romney bandwagon. But once we all met Mitt Romney for three 90-minute debates, we got to know him — and to like him. He was not the monster Obama depicted, but a reasonable person for whom we could vote.

As we stripped away Obama’s yearlong campaign of vilification, all the president offered us was more servings of negative ads — ads we had already dismissed as not credible. He kept doing the same thing even as it stopped working.

The result was that the presidential race reached a tipping point. Reasonable voters saw that the voice of hope and optimism and positivism was Romney while the president was only a nitpicking, quarrelsome, negative figure. The contrast does not work in Obama’s favor...

Continue reading. And then compare to MoDo, "The ‘I’ of the Storm" (at Memeorandum).

Presidential Race Too Close to Call in Final Week

The New York Times still has Obama up by 5 in Ohio, which at this point in the race is a complete joke.

And here's the Times' report for its nationwide poll, "Obama and Romney in Exceedingly Close Race, Poll Finds":

Polls that show Obama ahead on both state & national levels almost all based on assumed huge Dem turnout surpassing 08.
— Jonathan S. Tobin (@TobinCommentary) October 31, 2012

COLUMBUS, Ohio — President Obama and Mitt Romney enter the closing week of the campaign in an exceedingly narrow race, according to the latest poll by The New York Times and CBS News, with more voters now viewing Mr. Romney as a stronger leader on the economy and Mr. Obama as a better guardian of the middle class.

The president is holding his coalition together with strong support from women and minority voters and is supported by 48 percent of likely voters nationwide, the poll found, while Mr. Romney holds a wide advantage among independents and men and is the choice of 47 percent.

The race for the White House, which has been interrupted by the aftermath of Hurricane Sandy’s deadly assault on the East Coast, is heading toward an uncertain conclusion. The president was set to stay off the campaign trail for a third straight day to tour storm damage on Wednesday with Gov. Chris Christie of New Jersey, a Republican. Mr. Romney was set to resume a full schedule in Florida.

In the final days, the most intense competition between Mr. Obama and Mr. Romney has narrowed to seven states, but the national poll illustrates why the Romney campaign is working to expand the battleground and seize upon the deep concern in the electorate about whether the president should win a second term.

The Times has been oversampling Democrats, so it's probably not as "close" as the report suggests.

Campaign Resumes After Pause for Hurricane

At the Wall Street Journal, "Race Is Back On After Storm Hiatus":

As the ruinous force of Sandy begins to diminish, the nominal pause it created in the presidential election campaign is about to fade away.

President Barack Obama continued his detour from the campaign trail Tuesday to focus on storm response. Republican Mitt Romney set aside a planned political rally in favor of a relief event to help storm victims. Both asked supporters to make donations to the Red Cross.

But a presidential campaign racing toward its conclusion next week is taking little more than a short break to acknowledge the storm's impact.

Even as Mr. Romney and Mr. Obama canceled political appearances Tuesday, the two campaigns escalated a heated exchange over Mr. Romney's suggestion that the president's auto bailout had benefited China, rather than U.S. autoworkers. With new TV ad buys, Mr. Romney and his allies also pushed to enlarge the set of competitive states to include Pennsylvania, long an elusive prize for the Republican nominees.

Mr. Romney will return to his schedule of campaign appearances Wednesday in hopes of regaining the momentum many polls showed he had built in recent weeks. Mr. Obama is scheduled to follow suit on Thursday, after more time in Washington and a tour of storm damage in New Jersey, as he juggles the political rewards and risks of focusing on the government disaster response.

Northeast states grappled with how to make sure voting next week isn't unduly affected by the storm. With widespread power outages, flooding and blocked roads, officials said they may have to move or consolidate some polling locations. Connecticut gave voters two extra days to register while Maryland said it may have to resort to paper ballots for some locations due to power outages, which could delay the vote count.
For Mr. Obama, the turn to disaster management paid a surprising political dividend when he won praise on Tuesday from New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, a Republican who has been a scathing critic of his presidency.

"The president has been great," Mr. Christie, who represents Mr. Romney at campaign events, said on MSNBC. "The president has been all over this and he deserves great credit." It was one of several television interviews in which Mr. Christie praised Mr. Obama, who will tour New Jersey storm damage Wednesday with the governor.

He's been great, alright --- at never letting a crisis go to waste.

See: "Obama to Tour Storm-Damaged New Jersey."

Image: People's Cube.