Is Donald Trump for Real?

The proof is in the pudding, as they say.

At the Washington Post, "Is Donald Trump for real? We’ll start getting an answer in Iowa":

DUBUQUE, Iowa — As Republican front-runner Donald Trump arrived in Iowa this weekend for a final burst of campaigning ahead of the Monday caucuses, he did so in his usual over-the-top fashion: rolling his jet to a stop in front of an airport hangar filled with supporters in this eastern Iowa river town.

The arrival — set to the theme song from the movie “Air Force One” — captured the surreal theatrics that have defined Trump’s candidacy, attracting attention in a way that prompts many to ask: “Is this for real? Is he for real?”

In any other election year, with any other candidate, Trump’s consistently high poll numbers and massive rally crowds would earn him the title of presumed nominee. But this year is unlike any other and Trump is unlike any other GOP candidate — a thrice-married billionaire real estate developer who has never held elected office, wears white shoes to the Iowa State Fair, curses at his rallies and gives rides to children in his Trump-emblazoned helicopter.

Yet Trump is on the cusp of something historic: A candidate who has broken nearly every rule of traditional campaigning is favored to win the Iowa caucuses and several primary contests to follow. The prospect has continued to baffle political pundits, strategists and party leaders, many of whom don’t seem to want to believe what is happening until they see some proof. The Monday caucuses provide Trump with the opportunity to provide some.

“It’s very frustrating because if anybody had the numbers and the turnout and the support that Donald Trump has, I don’t think the media would have any problem saying the normal stuff — that he’s a shoo-in,” said Ted Hacker, 39, who lives in Dubuque and started a trucking company with his wife a year ago. He plans to caucus for the first time on Monday, casting his vote for Trump in hopes of proving that the candidate’s supporters aren’t just fans looking to be entertained. “It’s very frustrating.”

It's all about the turnout, and after reading that piece from Sasha Issenberg, I'm even less sure about Iowa than ever. It's crazy!

But keep reading.

Malheur Defendant Shawna Cox Is Close Family Friend and the Bundys' Live-In Secretary

Well, perhaps this is something folks might have been wondering about.

At the New York Times, "Who is Shawna Cox, the only woman arrested with Bundy’s Oregon militia?":

Thus far, details about [Shawna] Cox are scant, but it is known that she drove from South Utah to East Oregon to join the militia, which hopes to pressure the government to hand federal lands over to local ranchers, loggers, and miners. The protesters — who call themselves “Citizens for Constitutional Freedom,” though they have become known on Twitter as “Y’all Qaeda” — seized the wildlife reserve after a court extended the sentence of Dwight and Steve Hammond, two ranchers jailed for setting fire to federal lands. The movement was spearheaded by Ammon and Ryan Bundy, whose father, Cliven, staged an armed resistance when federal officials tried to stop him from grazing his cattle on government pastures.

A 2014 WND article describes Cox as a “close family friend who has become the Bundys’ live-in secretary.” She spoke out in defense of Cliven Bundy in 2014 after he publicly claimed that African Americans “abort their young children, they put their young men in jail, because they never learned how to pick cotton.” Cox told WND that Bundy is not a racist, and that “We believe slavery is horrible!”

After the takeover of the wildlife reserve, Cox appears to have acted as a spokeswoman for “Citizens for Constitutional Freedom.” On January 4, during a protest in support of the Hammonds, Cox read a letter of grievances from the group, demanding that the verdict against the Hammonds be reviewed. “We the people of these states united, insist that you immediately assemble an independent evidential hearing board,” she said. “We require your thoughtful response within five days of the date of this notice.” Cox also asserted that the letter had been signed by “tens of thousands” of people from across the country, “including Hawaii.”

A few days before her arrest, Cox gave an interview from within the occupied federal building. “When the people come and take their rightful position, then we can go home,” she said. “They are coming; it’s just taking a little while.”

PREVIOUSLY: "VIDEO: Ammon Bundy's Attorneys Address the Media Outside Mark O. Hatfield U.S. Courthouse in Portland, January 29, 2016."

Whoa! Donald Trump Downplays Significance of Hawkey State on Eve of Iowa Caucuses (VIDEO)

Well, he rattles off all the states where he's leading in the polls.

There's no context, but still. Ruptly says "Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump named states that he expects to win his party's nomination, while speaking at a campaign rally in Sioux City, Sunday, in an attempt to ease concerns about his performance in the upcoming Iowa caucus."

Watch:

#IowaCaucuses — Weijia Jiang Reports!

This is great!

Via CBS News 4 Miami:

LATEST: Busy Signals — Phones and Internet Communications Down at Malheur Refuge #OregonStandoff

Not too much to report.

It's Sunday, and not a whole lot of LEOs have been on the scene.

Jennifer Dowling reports, for KOIN News 6 Portland:



PREVIOUSLY: "LATEST: Malheur Holdouts Say the FBI Has Cut Their Phone and Internet Communications," and "WATCH: Authorities Establish New Roadblock at #Malheur National Wildlife Reserve (VIDEO)."

WATCH: Bernie Sanders Draws Massive Over-Capacity Crowd in Iowa City, Iowa (VIDEO)

Hey man, "Feel the Bern."

Via WaPo, "Bernie Sanders’s latest eye-popping crowd in Iowa."



RELATED: "Can Donald Trump and Bernie Sanders Turn Out the Vote?"

Behind-the-Scenes Sneak Peek — 2016 Sports Illustrated Swimsuit Issue

Following-up, "Countdown to This Week's Release of 2016 Sports Illustrated Swimsuit Issue."

I'll be posting the release of the new issue as soon as it's out. Who cares about the Iowa caucuses?!!

Donald Trump Slams Ted Cruz Over 'Dishonest' ObamaCare Attack (VIDEO)

I posted video last night, "WATCH: Ted Cruz Slams Donald Trump and Marco Rubio at Campaign Event in Iowa (VIDEO)."

We're gonna see if the genuine "cuckservatives" flood the caucuses for Cruz tomorrow, lol.

Here's The Donald:

In Iowa, Hillary Clinton Looking to Avoid Mistakes of the Past

She should be good, if they have as vaunted a ground game as everyone says.

At Bloomberg, "Clinton’s Plan to Win Iowa: Do the Opposite of 2008":

.@sissenberg explains the caucuses: "exercise in hipster nostalgia for the way we chose leaders in the 19th centuryhttps://t.co/S7ILGap4tM

— Jonathan Martin (@jmartNYT) January 30, 2016

The chanciest move for a risk-averse frontrunner? Encourage staff and volunteers to talk about the race on Twitter. https://t.co/MUBVuUjzap

— The Victory Lab (@victorylab) January 31, 2016

Avoiding the mistakes of the past—and emulating Obama—are the Clinton campaign’s twin caucus obsessions. But are they fighting the last war?

Last spring, as he was just beginning to develop a plan for Hillary Clinton’s campaign in Iowa, Michael Halle asked for help from some of the people who had the clearest view of her defeat there last time. He invited Clinton’s seven Iowa regional field directors, all of whom had moved on from her political orbit, on a conference call for what amounted to a highly delayed postmortem of her 2008 organization in the state. During the call, what stuck most vividly with Halle was the question he learned that Clinton organizers had put to Iowans when they had their first interactions with them over the phone or at doorsteps in 2007. Will you support Hillary? they had asked.

When volunteers went back to the voters shortly before the caucus to provide them with information on their precinct locations, those who had earlier identified as Clinton supporters were flaking at an unexpectedly high rate. Now they were not ready to declare themselves caucus-goers. When they were forced to think through the specific demands that entailed—to declare their support in public, at a scheduled time, before all their neighbors—many backed off, or responded with a flat “no.”

Over seven years, a mythology has emerged about Clinton’s disregard for the peculiar folkways of Iowa caucus. There were the canonical examples of Clinton’s brushing off local expectation of collegial intimacy, like the vivid descriptions of her regal entourage of imperious staffers more focused on their BlackBerries than the citizens in their midst, or the Bell 222 that the campaign dubbed the “Hill-a-copter” as it shuttled her among farm towns. Then there were the almost comically indulgent expenditures, from the hundreds of snow shovels the campaign gifted to residents who had weathered many winters without any politician’s munificence to the nearly $100,000 in caucus-night sandwich platters that Clinton purchased from the Hy-Vee supermarket chain, even though many counties expressly forbid food at precinct locations. (After learning about the catering order from a canvasser who visited a Hy-Vee executive, Obama campaign officials subsequently contacted every county chair and reminded them to enforce their rules.) In hindsight, Clinton’s approach to Iowa was part of an institutionalized disdain for the caucus process nationwide that ultimately helped to doom her first candidacy for president....

The assiduous commitment Clinton has made to not repeat her mistakes in Iowa is the prime reason her advisers can remain sanguine about their prospects in the face of another ascendant challenger drawing enormous crowds and small-dollar contributions from idealistic liberals. The aspect of Barack Obama’s campaign from which Clinton has learned the most is not the hope and change, but the nuts and bolts—and the better one understands the Iowa Democratic caucus, one realizes that it, more than any other venue in American electoral politics, sets those two objectives at odds with one another. “This was a big input piece from activists, from former precinct captains last time,” Halle remembered, in a conference room that was, like all the spaces at headquarters, named for one of the state’s cities. “‘One, they need to understand Iowa. Two, they need to understand the caucus,’” Halle said.

That's a great piece of political writing.

More.

WATCH: Authorities Establish New Roadblock at #Malheur National Wildlife Reserve (VIDEO)

Something's happening.

Here's my earlier entry, "LATEST: Malheur Holdouts Say the FBI Has Cut Their Phone and Internet Communications."

Not sure what's going on, although authorities towed a silver van out of the refuge.

Watch, via the Portland Oregonian:



Expect updates...

Donald Trump Holds Massive 25 Percent Lead in Latest Franklin Pierce-Boston Herald Poll

I love the headline too at the Globe, "Franklin Pierce-Herald Poll: Rivals need Iowa win to catch Trump, Sanders in N.H.":

NEW HAMPSHIRE

TRUMP 38% (+5)
Cruz 13% (-1)
Rubio 10% (+2)
Bush 10% (+1)
Kasich 8% (-4)
Christie 5% (-2)https://t.co/PTf3QHynas

— slone (@slone) January 31, 2016

GOP presidential challengers Ted Cruz and Marco Rubio and Democrat Hillary Clinton desperately need breakthroughs in Iowa tomorrow to overcome expanding leads held by Donald Trump and Bernie Sanders in New Hampshire, a new Franklin Pierce University-Boston Herald poll reveals.

Trump has a massive 25-point advantage over his nearest rival Cruz while Sanders has grown his lead over Clinton to a 57-37 percent margin , according to the poll of likely Granite State primary voters conducted Jan. 26-30.

A surprise in the Iowa caucuses tomorrow could still shake things up in New Hampshire’s Feb. 9 primary, especially on the GOP side, where 44 percent of voters say they could still change their minds. One-third of Trump supporters say they haven’t made a firm decision.

But a dramatic shift in the Democratic race appears less likely, with 78 percent of likely primary voters reporting they won’t change their minds. That makes Clinton’s hopes for another comeback an even bigger climb, even if she beats the upstart Vermont senator in Iowa.

Trump now gets 38 percent of the vote in New Hampshire — up from 33 percent a week ago — while Cruz has stalled at 13 percent, according to the poll of 439 likely GOP primary voters.

Rubio and former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush are getting 10 percent, while Ohio Gov. John Kasich has dropped to fifth place at 8 percent, according to the poll. New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, businesswoman Carly Fiorina and Kentucky Sen. Rand Paul are winning just 5 percent support, the poll shows.

Trump’s popularity has remained steady in the Granite State, with 56 percent of GOP voters saying they hold a favorable view of the billionaire business mogul...

Keep reading.

Kristen Keogh's Sunday Forecast

We're getting some rain, and snow in the local mountains.

It's great!

Via ABC 10 News San Diego:

Sunday Cartoons

At Flopping Aces, "Sunday Funnies."



Also, at Reaganite Republican, "Reaganite's Sunday Funnies," and Theo Spark's, "Cartoon Roundup."

Cartoon Credit: Legal Insurrection, "Branco Cartoon – Right to Vote."

Can Donald Trump and Bernie Sanders Turn Out the Vote?

Following-up from earlier, "Turnout Is Name of the Game in Monday's Iowa Caucuses."

As I said, "A lot of theories are going to be tested, and a lot of hopes are riding on the outcomes."

Here's Dan Balz, at the Washington Post, "The big Iowa test: Can Trump and Sanders turn enthusiasm into votes?":

DES MOINES — With campaign events all across Iowa on Saturday overflowing with voters, the Republican and Democratic contests have been reduced to the same question: Can the muscle of traditional and methodical organizing overcome the energy and enthusiasm of a pair of unconventional candidates in this unconventional race?

After a year in which voter anger and dissatisfaction with Washington have propelled insurgent candidates and shaped the political terrain, Iowa voters will offer the first clues as to whether what has taken place up to now was an aberration or a new normal in American politics that will continue to course through the election battles until November.

In the Democratic race, Hillary Clinton is seeking to fend off an unexpectedly strong challenge from Sen. Bernie Sanders (Vt.). Among Republicans, the principal battle pits Donald Trump, who has broken almost every rule of how to run an Iowa campaign, against Sen. Ted Cruz (Tex.), whose campaign is a textbook example of what is known here as “the Iowa way.”

The latest Des Moines Register-Bloomberg Politics poll, released Saturday night, showed Trump leading the Republican race at 28 percent, followed by Cruz at 23 percent, Sen. Marco Rubio (Fla.) at 15 percent and Ben Carson at 10 percent. Among Democrats, Clinton held a statistically insignificant lead over Sanders, 45 percent to 42 percent. The Iowa poll has had an excellent track record in past caucus cycles, particularly in its final measurement of the race.

The most important unknown in the final hours was how many Iowans will turn out for the caucuses Monday evening. The bigger the numbers, the better for Trump and Sanders, according to projections by several campaigns.

Iowa Republican Party Chairman Jeff Kaufmann said he “can’t envision” his party not beating its previous turnout record of about 122,000, set four years ago. He said telephones at party headquarters have been ringing constantly for the past week, day and night, with people wanting to know how and where to caucus. “It is just nonstop here,” he said. “We’ve got literally hundreds of calls a day. . . . I’ve got a hunch a lot of these folks are going to show up.”

Trump returned to Iowa in grand fashion, roaring his private jet low over a huge crowd in Dubuque before rolling to a stop at a hangar. He implored the crowd to go to the caucuses. “I don’t care what it is,” he said. “If you don’t get out, we’re wasting time. . . . We have a chance to do something so historic.”

More.

PREVIOUSLY: "Turnout Is Name of the Game in Monday's Iowa Caucuses."

The 2016 Land Rover Range Rover Sport HSE Td6

What a car!

At the Los Angeles Times, "Range Rover Sport HSE Td6: a posh drive through El Niño's wickedness":

Land Rover has made its Southern California reputation by selling cars capable of fording rocky streams and climbing icy slopes to drivers who rarely face anything more challenging than a lentil soup spill in the Trader Joe's parking lot.

But with a powerful El Niño bearing down upon us, the 2016 Range Rover Sport might be the best vehicle on the market for handling wicked winter weather — in our accustomed comfort and style.

Between their Land Rovers and Range Rovers, the storied English automobile company has been making off-road-capable vehicles since 1948. Although the original Rover company has since become part of larger Jaguar Land Rover (which has since been acquired by Indian automotive giant Tata Motors), they still make ruggedly handsome Jeep-like machines that are capable of handling almost anything.

With the Range Rover Sport HSE Td6, the company is introducing the first diesel Land Rover ever sold in North America. The timing is unfortunate — the company introduced the vehicle just as the Volkswagen diesel "defeat device" scandal was breaking — but its makers expect diesel versions to account for up to 20% of the company's U.S. sales this year.

It's a lot of car. Equipped with a 3.0-liter turbo V6 diesel engine that cranks out 254 horsepower and a whopping 443 pound-feet of torque, the Td6 has massive pulling power, well distributed with the eight-speed transmission. And for a large vehicle, it carries its 4,700 pounds gracefully...

More.

Prices start at $65,000. The model under review above goes for $85,000.

Good thing they offer dealer-approved pre-owned models, heh.

Kendall Jenner, Charlotte McKinney — Sexiest Women of 2015 (VIDEO)

Via GQ:

WATCH: Gun-Grabbing Hypocrite Gabby Giffords Campaigns for Hillary Clinton in Iowa (VIDEO)

Giffords says she grew up with guns, and she's happily posted pictures of herself sporting an AR-15 rifle, but nowadays she's one of the staunchest leftists pounding for mass Australian-style gun confiscation.

A rank hypocrite, in other words, a perfect campaigner for hateful Hillary Clinton.

Asshole astronaut Mark Kelly rounds out this tiresome threesome of tyrannical leftist trolls.

Watch, via AP:

Two Sides of Voter Fear in Iowa

Tomorrow's the big day.

A lot of theories are going to be tested, and a lot of hopes are riding on the outcomes.

It's democracy's feast.

At the Los Angeles Times, "From west to east, Iowa voters have starkly different realities and fears":

They met decades ago, when they were first married, and the three sisters-in-law still gather each week at the Dutch Bakery to catch up amid the sweet smell of flour and sugar floating through the air.

Despite the cozy setting here on the state's western edge, they can feel the country beneath their feet slipping away, eroding under the threats of immorality and terrorism.

"I never thought we would live in so much fear," said Joanne Niezen, as her coffee sat cooling before her in a Styrofoam cup.

There's fear on the other side of the state as well, though for different reasons.

In the college town of Iowa City, with its hip music scene and pita restaurant advertising "fresh thinking and healthy eating," Veronica Tessler worries about the harsh rhetoric directed at immigrants and the economic inequality that lingers years after the Great Recession.

"I really fear for our country," said Tessler, who left her job at a foreign policy foundation to open a frozen yogurt shop near the University of Iowa campus.

The two communities, located in the most lopsidedly partisan counties in the state, reflect the vast political chasm here and across the country, a divide that President Obama was unable to heal and which may prove insurmountable for whomever takes his place.

"Republicans see an America where the government is too big at home and too feeble abroad. Democrats see an America where the economy is out of whack," said David Nagle, a Democratic attorney who used to represent Iowa City and surrounding Johnson County in Congress. "It's like two trains in the night, passing in opposite directions."

But the division goes far beyond a profound disagreement on issues. While partisan tensions are nothing new, they have deepened and intensified during the presidencies of George W. Bush and Barack Obama as the parties have splintered along the lines of age, race and culture. The result is a separation of America into mutually estranged and suspicious tribes...

Still more.

Countdown to This Week's Release of 2016 Sports Illustrated Swimsuit Issue

Who'll be on the cover this year?

I predict Nina Agdal, but we'll see. We'll see.

More at SI:

We're counting down the days until #SISwim 2016! https://t.co/uUB1c162ML pic.twitter.com/EEgdSn9KRu

— SI Swimsuit (@SI_Swimsuit) January 30, 2016

Turnout Is Name of the Game in Monday's Iowa Caucuses

Here's the question of the day: which candidates will prove to have the superior ground operations on Monday?

Here AP, posted at ABC News (via Memeorandum):

In a final frenzy to inspire supporters to turn out for Monday's Iowa caucuses, the presidential contenders scrambled to close the deal with the first voters to have a say in the 2016 race for the White House.

The result Sunday was a blur of sometimes conflicting messages. Even as the candidates begged backers to caucus, many hopefuls also tried to lower expectations and look ahead to the New Hampshire primary on Feb. 9 and later contests.

Republican Donald Trump, who has a slight edge over Ted Cruz in Iowa, predicted that "many" senators "soon" would endorse him rather than their Texas colleague. Trump didn't name any such senators, and none immediately emerged.

Democratic Hillary Clinton, in a tight race with Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders, suggested that political point-scoring helped explain the hubbub over the State Department's announcement Friday that it was withholding some emails on the home server she used while secretary of state.

The Sanders campaign, meanwhile, sought to claim financial momentum, saying it has raised $20 million in January, suggesting he will continue to match Clinton's resources.

One development — the weather — was beyond the candidates' control. A snowfall forecast to start Monday night appeared more likely to hinder the hopefuls in their rush out of Iowa than the voters. Republican John Kasich already has decamped to New Hampshire.

Iowa offers only a small contingent of the delegates who will determine the nominees, but the game of expectations counts for far more than the electoral math in the state. Campaigns worked aggressively to set those expectations in their favor (read: lower them) for Iowa, New Hampshire and beyond.

Meantime, on the final full day before the caucus, a pastor at a church outside Des Moines urged politicians to treat their opponents with love and not attack ads.... The candidates' agreed on one thing: It's all about turnout now.

"If people come out to vote, I think you're going to look at one of the biggest political upsets in the modern history of our country," Sanders told CNN's "State of the Union."