Salma Hayek for GQ Mexico

At Drunken Stepfather, "SALMA HAYEK IN GQ MEXICO OF THE DAY."

Paris Hilton as Tinkerbell

For Halloween.

On Twitter, "Those who don't believe in magic will never find it..."

Also, at Egotastic!, "Paris Hilton Big Cleavage as Tinkerbell."

ICYMI: Arlie Russell Hochschild, Strangers in Their Own Land

At Amazon, Arlie Russell Hochschild, Strangers in Their Own Land: Anger and Mourning on the American Right.

I've got this one on order, along with J.D. Vance, Hillbilly Elegy: A Memoir of a Family and Culture in Crisis.

And thanks once again for shopping through my Amazon links.

It's greatly appreciated.

The 2016 Victoria’s Secret Fantasy Bra

This year's fashion show will feature "Gigi Hadid, Kendall Jenner, Bella Hadid, Karlie Kloss and returning favorites Adriana Lima, Alessandra Ambrosio, Lily Aldridge, Elsa Hosk and Jasmine Tookes, who will be wearing the $3 million Bright Night Fantasy Bra."

The show airs Monday, December 5th.

Check back here for all your pre-show hotness.

Deal of the Day: EcoSmart ECO 27 Electric Tankless Water Heater

At Amazon, EcoSmart ECO 27 Electric Tankless Water Heater, 27 KW at 240 Volts, 112.5 Amps with Patented Self Modulating Technology.

Also, Save on Philips Wake-Up Lights.

More, Up to 50% Off ECCO Men's and Women's Shoes.

Plus, Save Up to 35% on PURELL Solutions.

BONUS: Thomas Piketty, The Economics of Inequality.

Black Turnout Falls in Early Voting

Well, enthusiasm's down for Hillary Clinton all around, although I'm not sure it's going to make that much difference.

It's going down to the wire. Donald Trump has to run the table on all the states he needs, plus a couple others he's not expected to get. He's got a hard path to 270.

But we'll see. We'll see.

At NYT:

BAD OMEN: Black turnout falls in early voting, boding ill for Hillary Clinton https://t.co/AI8NnQGzkS pic.twitter.com/AfqycmbDK8

— slone (@slone) November 2, 2016

World Series Goes to Climactic Game 7

Well, the Indians bobbled the ball last night, literally.

Tonight's going to be epic.

Great! Cubs-Indians magic words: #WorldSeries Game 7. https://t.co/naeLE16wNg

— Donald Douglas (@AmPowerBlog) November 2, 2016

Orange County Could Go Democrat in 2016

The leftist hordes have stormed the barricades and breached the Orange Curtain.

At LAT "Orange County has voted for the GOP in every presidential election since 1936. This year, it could go blue":

It was the home of Richard Nixon, the cradle of Ronald Reagan’s career and, for decades, a virtual synonym for the Republican Party of California.

Now, for the first time since the Depression, Orange County stands on the verge of choosing a Democrat for president, potentially ending the longest streak of Republican presidential victories of any county in the state.

That possibility symbolizes how the American political map has been upended by Donald Trump’s campaign: He has sped up a decade-long shift in which the GOP has gathered strength in white, blue-collar regions that once routinely elected Democrats, but traditional Republican suburbs increasingly have turned blue.

From Chester County outside Philadelphia to Gwinnett County east of Atlanta and on to Fort Bend County near Houston and Tarrant County west of Dallas, big, affluent suburban regions seem likely to shift significantly toward Hillary Clinton this year, according to analysts who track county-level voting trends.

That’s an immediate hurdle for the GOP, which has long counted on suburban strength to offset Democratic votes in the cities. It could be an even bigger problem in the longer term because those suburbs are among the nation’s most economically dynamic, growing regions.

The shift reflects changing demographics: As with Orange County, many of the nation’s suburbs have become racially and ethnically diverse, shedding their status as all-white enclaves.

It has been accelerated by Trump’s weakness among college-educated, white voters. That group has sided with the Republican in every presidential election since reliable polling began in the U.S. in the 1940s, but this year it has consistently shown a Democratic majority in polls...

Keep reading.

Jackie Johnson's November 2nd Weather Forecast

It's cooler in the mornings, but nice in the afternoons. The fall weather's enough to stay in Californian. Not so much the politics of course. Even the O.C. might go Democrat this election. The left's has finally stormed the Orange Curtain!

Here's Ms. Jackie, for CBS News 2 Los Angeles:

Assessing the Fallout From the Comey Effect

Well, I think a number of folks who liked Hillary may have second thoughts, and if that's as much as a percentage point or more in some states, it could make a difference.

But let's see.

Here's Larry Sabato et al., "The Comey Effect":

Crystal Ball: New Electoral College map. AZ/FL/OH to Toss-up https://t.co/HRDHetpcwz pic.twitter.com/dZ5FAQ5Z68

— Larry Sabato (@LarrySabato) October 31, 2016

FBI director throws a curveball into the presidential race with a week to go; Clinton slips in ratings but retains clear edge.

The purest version of the “October surprise” is a political bombshell that no one sees coming. In the closing days of the craziest campaign in modern history, we have just been witnesses to an October surprise so pure it would qualify for an Ivory Soap commercial (“99 and 44/100 percent pure”). When FBI Director James Comey sent a letter to certain members of Congress about a new development in the long-running Hillary Clinton email mess, the resulting earthquake could be picked up by a seismograph.

There are very legitimate questions about whether Director Comey was right or wrong to do what he did. It’s indisputable that Comey broke normal FBI practice in order to comment publicly on an incomplete, ongoing investigation. Moreover, Comey violated longstanding FBI standards that prohibit announcements within 60 days of an election that would influence the public’s choice. Just 11 days before Nov. 8, Comey took an unprecedented step that could affect the outcome of an election for president and Congress. The vagueness and ambiguity of his letter to some senior members of Congress guaranteed a leak to the press within five nanoseconds, and invited the rankest speculation from Clinton’s opponents.

To the extent that Clinton loses ground this week, and falls behind in battleground states where she had been leading, we will call this “the Comey Effect.” Similarly, if Comey’s decision results in Republicans holding onto the Senate and losing fewer House seats because he has invigorated their “checks and balances” argument, we will also attribute this to the Comey Effect.

The all-emails-all-the-time media coverage has already had an impact on the presidential race. Polls were tightening a bit before this, mainly due to some reluctant Republican partisans returning home at the end to their party’s ticket. We also need to remember something that has defined this race: The candidate in the spotlight, except for the convention period, has generally suffered in the polls. After the conclusion of the third debate, the focus seemed to move back to Clinton, as negative headlines about the Affordable Care Act and the daily trickle of sometimes embarrassing emails from WikiLeaks’ John Podesta treasure trove accumulated. This took the focus off of Donald Trump and put it on Clinton — and the Comey Effect has kept the spotlight on her. That the Democrats have struck back so hard against Comey, with some even calling for his resignation, indicates the seriousness with which they are treating this new development in the race.

Republicans will thrill to the Comey Effect. Democrats will heatedly denounce it. Yet it is real and impossible to ignore, and the FBI director’s extremely controversial move must be noted in the Crystal Ball, and maybe even in the history books.

Still, Clinton remains the clear favorite in the race, and there were not immediate signs that the overall race dramatically changed as a result of the Comey Effect. However, the race may have been getting closer anyway...

Keep reading.

Donald Trump Campaigns in Blue States, Looking to Overturn the Electoral Map

Althouse has an entry on Donald Trump challenging Hillary Clinton's "firewall."

It's completely unorthodox, but what if it works?

At the Los Angeles Times, "Trump is placing a long-shot bet to win a handful of states. It could overturn the electoral map":

With one week before election day, Donald Trump spent the bulk of Tuesday campaigning in Wisconsin, a state that has not backed a Republican for president since 1984.

His unorthodox visit came on the heels of trips to Michigan and Pennsylvania, states that also haven’t gone red since the 1980s.

For the final stretch of the presidential race, the GOP nominee has embarked on a strategy of long-shot bids, holding rallies and airing ads in states that have been reliably Democratic in recent elections. Trump’s gambit sacrifices face time in battleground states, but if successful would upend the political map and likely hand him the White House.

“The Trump campaign is on the offensive and expanding our presence in battleground states into blue states,” David Bossie, Trump’s deputy campaign manager, told reporters Tuesday.

Trump’s campaign believes it can flip states by relying on his populist rhetoric that connects with white working-class voters hurt by the Rust Belt’s decline in manufacturing.

Michigan was among 13 states where the Trump campaign placed a $25-million ad buy for the final week of the race, digital director Brad Parscale announced. Pennsylvania and New Mexico, other mostly reliably blue states, were also on the list.

At a rally Monday in Warren, Mich., Trump seemed almost giddy as he repeatedly mentioned how a win in the state would buck historical precedent.

“No Republican has won since like Reagan or something many years ago” — it was actually George H.W. Bush — “and I said, ‘I love Michigan,’” he said.

Trump has made a number of high-profile visits to the state, and he has enthusiastic grass-roots groups such as the Michigan Conservative Coalition organizing flash mobs and knocking on doors on his behalf.

His campaign also has more than 30 offices in the state and consistently knocks on at least 100,000 doors a week, said Scott Hagerstrom, who runs Trump’s campaign in Michigan.

The biggest challenge, he said, is “to get people to believe again, to believe that it’s possible.”

Trump faces steep hurdles in Michigan, Pennsylvania and here in Wisconsin, a state that has voted Democratic since 1984. He trails in public polls by 5 to 6 points in those states, according to averages maintained by RealClearPolitics.

But if the race tightens significantly, the time invested in those states may yield dividends...

Keep reading.

Americans Think the Media Wants Hillary Clinton by Nearly 10-to-1 Margin

Well, somebody's got some common sense.

At the Hill, "Public overwhelmingly thinks media is in the tank for Clinton."

Poll: Public overwhelmingly thinks media is in the tank for Clinton https://t.co/krQVwAHYTP pic.twitter.com/Hf3Hbgv8aV

— The Hill (@thehill) October 31, 2016

The polls here, at Suffolk University, "Suffolk University/USA Today Poll Shows Clinton Leading Trump by 9 Points Nationwide":

Despite Trump’s claim that the election is rigged, nearly 57 percent of likely voters said that the election results will be fair and accurate, while 38 percent said they are worried that the results could be manipulated. However, voters appeared to agree with Trump’s claim that the media has chosen Clinton. Asked whom they think the media preferred, 75 percent said Clinton, 8 percent Trump, and 5 percent said the media preferred neither.

Joanna Krupa Halloween

This lady goes all out.

At the Sun U.K., "SENDING PULSES AFLUTTER: Model Joanna Krupa goes topless for Halloween as she dons body paint for extremely sexy butterfly costume." (On Twitter here as well.)

Also, at London's Daily Mail, "Whip it good! Joanna Krupa wields riding crop in very revealing dominatrix Halloween costume." (On Twitter here as well.)

Still more, "Joanna Krupa unleashes her inner Aphrodite in a risqué Greek Goddess outfit at Halloween bash as she dons THIRD costume in as many days."

Heidi Klum's Halloween Clones

This is trippy.

At London's Daily Mail, "It's Heidi CLONE! Model Klum unveils her most ambitious costume yet as she arrives at her annual star-studded Halloween party with five lookalikes in prosthetics."

Arlie Russell Hochschild Discusses Anger and Mourning on the American Right (VIDEO)

On Sunday I ordered Arlie Russell Hochschild's, Strangers in Their Own Land: Anger and Mourning on the American Right.

I'm getting into the whole sociology of the disaffected white working class. I'm having the Hochschild book sent along with J.D. Vance's, Hillbilly Elegy: A Memoir of a Family and Culture in Crisis.

And as noted, I started reading Charles Murray's 2012 book yesterday, Coming Apart: The State of White America, 1960-2010. (It's a great read, by the way.)

In any case, here's Professor Hochschild on Democracy Now! She's amazingly sympathetic to the mourning Americans, even if she can't quite understand them.

Interesting:

The Far-Left's Nightmare Fantasies

Robert Stacy McCain refers to leftists here as "liberals," something I rarely do anymore.

They're not liberal, in the classical sense of the term. They're not even J.F.K liberals, which is the Cold War Democrat version. Nope. They're neo-communists, in David Horowitz's formulation. And they're bringing the Marxist-Leninist collective closer and closer by the day. It's not just "cultural" Marxism either. Leftists these days are giving us a preview of the prison camps of the 21st century, which won't look much different from the prison camps of the 20th century. Think Aleksandr Solzhenitsyn and you won't be far off base.

In any case, at the Other McCain, "Liberals and Their Nightmare Fantasies."

Forty-Five Percent of Voters Say Hillary Clinton's Email Scandal is Worse Than Watergate

That's almost half. Among all voters, that's almost half.

You've got more than Donald Trump partisans in a statistic like that. Forty-five percent is capturing a lot of independents, and perhaps quite a few Democrats.

See Politico, "Poll: Comey’s bombshell changes few votes." (Via Althouse.)

More here:

WaPo-ABC poll: 34% say the new FBI review makes them less likely to support Hillary Clinton. https://t.co/vPgojeddrz pic.twitter.com/CgcoZ5W6yD

— Sahil Kapur (@sahilkapur) October 30, 2016

'In North Carolina, as in Ohio, Colorado, Florida and the other major swing states, the election will likely unfold as a test of strength between metropolitan areas breaking for Clinton and non-metropolitan areas rallying to Trump...'

More great election analysis, from Ronald Brownstein, along with Leah Askarinam, at the Atlantic, "The Tipping Points of the 2016 Election."

Ben Cohen Reviews Socialism of Fools

A very interesting book review, at Commentary.

Cohen's reviewing Michele Battini's, Socialism of Fools: Capitalism and Modern Anti-Semitism.

Also, FYI, Cohen's the author of Some of My Best Friends: A Journey Through Twenty-First Century Antisemitism.

In any case, at the magazine:

Book Review, "Socialism of Fools". https://t.co/0dBPxQqVCs @BlazingCatFur

— Donald Douglas (@AmPowerBlog) October 31, 2016

Julian Assange Belongs in Jail

Marc Thiessen nails it with this piece, "Wikileaks is no hero":

Wikileaks is no hero. @marcthiessen: https://t.co/nGrJz8ElJL

— AEI Foreign Policy (@AEIfdp) October 28, 2016

Winston Churchill once said that “if Hitler invaded hell, I would make at least a favorable reference to the devil in the House of Commons.” So it’s not surprising that many conservatives are thrilled to see WikiLeaks and the Clinton campaign at war, as Julian Assange releases emails exposing the duplicity and potential self-dealing of the Clinton machine and the blurred line between the Clinton Foundation and the State Department.

But in our excitement, let’s not forget: Julian Assange is no hero. He is the devil.

Some conservatives seem to have lost sight of this. Rudy Giuliani recently said, “I find WikiLeaks very refreshing.” And Rep. Jeff Duncan (R-S.C.) declared on Twitter, “Thank God for Wikileaks — doing the job that MSM WON’T!”

These conservatives seem to have forgotten that before Assange was revealing Clinton campaign emails, he was serially leaking stolen, classified national security information that has endangered the United States and its allies across the world. In 2010, WikiLeaks dumped more than 76,000 unredacted, secret U.S. intelligence documents into the public domain, including the identities of at least 100 Afghans who were informing on the Taliban. At the time, Assange admitted in an interview that his leaks might harm innocent people (“collateral damage, if you will,” he declared) and that WikiLeaks might get “blood on our hands,” but this was a price he was willing to pay for transparency.

In the years that followed, Assange continued his serial disclosures of stolen U.S. secrets. He released a troveof classified documents on Guantanamo Bay detainees, an unredacted archive of more than a quarter-million secret U.S. diplomatic cables, classified CIA documents exposing how CIA operatives maintain cover while traveling through airports, secret details of European military operations to intercept refugees traveling from Libya to Europe, and top-secret documents describing National Security Agency intercepts of foreign government communications, among others.

The cost of WikiLeaks’s disclosures to our national security is unfathomable. As former CIA and NSA director Michael Hayden has put it, “We will never know who will now not come forward, who will not provide us with life-saving information” because of WikiLeaks, “but we can be certain that the cost will be great. And foreign intelligence services, with whom we have established productive and legitimate partnerships, will ask, ‘Can I trust the Americans to keep anything secret?’ ”

For these and other crimes, Assange should be in jail. But instead, he is being given sanctuary by the left-wing, anti-American government of Ecuador. Moreover, let’s not forget that Assange is attacking Hillary Clinton not because he thinks she is a corrupt liberal, but because he believes that she is too interventionist. “She’s palled up with the neocons responsible for the Iraq War,” Assange recently told Megyn Kelly, “and she’s grabbed on to this kind of neo-McCarthyist hysteria about Russia.” Assange wants the United States to pull back from Iraq and Afghanistan and stop criticizing Russian President Vladi­mir Putin — not exactly conservative priorities.

While the conservative embrace of Assange is troubling, the hypocrisy displayed by some in the media in not fully covering WikiLeaks’s Clinton revelations are equally galling. They had no problem reporting on WikiLeaks’s revelations of highly classified national security information, falling over themselves to publish what amounts to espionage porn. But according to the Media Research Center, between Oct. 7 and Oct. 13, “the morning and evening news shows on ABC, CBS and NBC dedicated 4 hours and 13 minutes to discussing the recent allegations of sexual misconduct surrounding Donald Trump’s campaign,” while “the continual release of the WikiLeaks emails from top Hillary staff [got] a comparatively puny 36 minutes of coverage .” That is a ratio of 7 to 1. And much of that meager coverage has been focused not on the revelations themselves, but on how the emails were hacked and leaked.

The Clinton campaign has a clear strategy for tamping down coverage of WikiLeaks — to paint the revelations as an assault on American democracy...

Still more.