Monday, March 7, 2022

How the West Unplugged Russia From the World's Financial Systems

At WSJ, "Western financiers severed practically every artery of money between the country and the rest of the globe, in some cases going beyond sanctions":

Two weeks ago, Russia’s companies could sell their goods around the globe and take in investments from overseas stock-index funds. Its citizens could buy MacBooks and Toyotas at home, and freely spend their rubles abroad.

Now they are in a financial bind. Soon after Russia invaded Ukraine, another war began to isolate its economy and pressure President Vladimir Putin. The first move was made by Western governments to sanction the country’s banking system. But over the course of the past week, the financial system took over and severed practically every artery of money between Russia and the rest of the world, in some cases going further than what was required by the sanctions.

Visa Inc. V -3.91% and Mastercard Inc. stopped processing foreign purchases for millions of Russian citizens. Apple Inc. and Google shut off their smartphone-enabled payments, stranding cashless travelers at Moscow metro stations. International firms stepped back from providing the credit and insurance that underpin trade shipments.

This unplugging of the world’s 11th-largest economy opens a new chapter in the history of economic conflict. In a world that relies on the financial system’s plumbing—clearing banks, settlement systems, messaging protocols and cross-border letters of credit—a few concerted moves can flatten a major economy.

Russia now faces a repeat of one of the most painful episodes in its post-Soviet history—the financial crisis of 1998, when its economy collapsed overnight. In the decades that followed, Russia earned its way back into the good graces of financiers in New York, London and Tokyo. It is all being undone at warp speed and will not be easily put back together.

The ruble has lost more than one-quarter of its value and is now virtually useless outside of Russia, with Western firms refusing to exchange it or process overseas transactions. Moscow’s stock exchange was closed for a fifth straight day on Friday. The Russian Central Bank more than doubled interest rates to attract foreign investment and halt the ruble’s free fall. Two firms that are crucial to clearing securities trades, Euroclear and DTCC, said they would stop processing certain Russian transactions.

With their interest payments stuck inside the country—following the sanctions, Mr. Putin also ordered intermediaries in Russia not to pay—some Russian companies and government entities could default on their bond payments to international creditors. That could make the country toxic for investing for years. Shares of Russian companies, even those without obvious ties to the Kremlin, were booted from stock-index funds, which will further isolate them from pools of Western capital.

Analysts expect Russia’s economy to contract as much as 20% this quarter, roughly the same hit the British economy took in the spring of 2020 during the pandemic lockdowns.

Aleksandr Iurev left Moscow eight years ago as an aspiring entrepreneur. Russia’s escalating hostility in the region made it “no place for business people,” he said from his home in New Jersey. The 36-year-old runs a mobile-app startup and this week, he can’t make payroll for the six developers who work for him in Russia because they hold personal accounts at sanctioned banks.

“It is completely shut off,” he said. He’s looking into cryptocurrency to keep his staff from bolting.

His company, Pocketfied, has other problems: Members of his marketing team in Ukraine took the week off to help build street barricades in Dnipro, in the country’s east.

The one lifeline that still connects Russia’s economy to Western markets is its supplies of energy, which European countries rely on and have been loath to cut off, especially during the winter. U.S. lawmakers are pressuring the White House to expand sanctions to include energy payments, which would sap Russia of its largest source of income, at $240 billion last year.

Even if governments don’t act, the market is speaking: Russian oil producers have had trouble finding buyers for shipments since the invasion began.

“The golden age that we had from 1945 to last week is now over,” said Gary Greenberg, head of global emerging markets at Federated Hermes, which manages $669 billion in assets. “As investors, we need to look at things differently now.”

As it dug out from the 1998 crash, Russia plugged itself into the global economy. It joined Brazil, China and India—dubbed the BRIC economies by Western investors—as the next frontier of finance.

American, British and Swiss banks courted the flood of money its oil industry produced. Russia’s biggest banks listed shares in London. One of them moved into an office across the street from the Bank of England. The Moscow exchange itself went public in 2013 with backing from U.S. and European investors.

The first signs of decoupling came in 2014, when Mr. Putin’s territorial ambitions began to stir. Western governments put limited sanctions on Russia after it annexed Crimea from Ukraine.

Russia began trying to sanction-proof its economy. It built its own domestic payments network—called Mir, Russian for “peace”—to function alongside and, if needed, replace those run by Western firms. It shifted its overseas holdings away from the U.S. and its European allies and toward China, which has been relatively more accommodating of Mr. Putin’s efforts to expand his influence and territory. It doubled its gold reserves.

Those efforts to wall itself off may prove insufficient. At least 40% of Russia’s $630 billion in foreign reserves are in countries that have joined in the latest sanctions. The rest, mostly in China, it is free to spend—but only in China. Moving those reserves out of the country would require first converting them into a Western currency like dollars or euros, which no global bank will do.

Russia, like many energy-rich countries, exports oil and gas and imports much else—automotive parts, medicines, broadcast equipment, wallpaper, fresh vegetables.

The financial journey that enables their geographical one depends on a complex web of loans, insurance policies and payments. Western banks are stepping back from trade financing, executives said, wary of the risk that their counterparty uses a sanctioned Russian bank, or has ties to a sanctioned oligarch. Maersk, the Danish shipping giant, suspended deliveries to Russia, citing tougher terms now being demanded by financiers.

Czarnikow Group, a London-based trade-financing firm, was preparing this week to send a shipload of a specialty plastic used in soda bottles and clamshell packaging, with scheduled stops in Russia and Ukraine. On Monday, the firm got notice from its insurance provider that its policy would no longer cover the ship.

“It was obvious we weren’t going to be able to put a vessel in,” said Robin Cave, Czarnikow’s chief executive, who began looking for alternative ports and is talking to his client about where to send the cargo...

California Gas Prices Hit More Than $5.00 Per Gallon on Average for First Time, Breaking Record Highs for the State (VIDEO)

I'm glad I'm not commuting to work everyday. I teach online. You wouldn't believe the continuing strong demand for online classes. Kids don't want to come back on campus, and not just because they might get sick. No, they like "going to school" in their pajamas. They don't have to pay for gas, parking, and maintenance on their vehicle. 

My college administration was stunned when on-campus classes were under-enrolled for the spring semester, which was supposed to be the first time everyone was fully "on-campus" since March 2020. 

Didn't work out that way. Even employees aren't looking to go back if their gasoline budget balloons to $600 a month and counting.

Following up from yesterday, "Gas Prices in Los Angeles," at KABC News 7 Los Angeles:


Biden Wokeness on Energy Is Weakness

From Ned Ryun, at American Greatness, "Wokeness on Energy: Is Weakness Biden’s energy policy is bankrupting the country and making us a paper tiger abroad?"


The U.S. Constitution Is Trash (VIDEO)

This is one bitter motherfucker.

Watch, Elie Mystal, a writer for the Nation, at "The View."

If you want to know how leftists will finally destroy the United States --- which is exactly what they want --- this is it:



Sunday, March 6, 2022

Sean McMeekin, Stalin's War

Sean McMeekin, Stalin's War: A New History of World War II




Doctor, My Eyes ... Tell Me What is Wrong...

Jackson Browne


Cause I have wandered through this world
And as each moment has unfurled
I've been waiting to awaken from these dreams
People go just where they will
I never noticed them until I got this feeling
That it's later than it seems

Doctor, my eyes
Tell me what you see
I hear their cries
Just say if it's too late for me...

Take a Peek Inside the Massive 'Stratofortress' B-52s Currently Doing Laps Around Eastern Europe

At Instapundit, Ed Driscoll quips, "JUST AS LONG AS SLIM PICKENS ISN’T IN THE COCKPIT."

Definitely click through. Lots of excellent video at the post. 

CONTENT WARNING: Russian Cruise Missile Strike Kills Family in Irbin, Ukraine (VIDEO)

This video is so intense Google's buried results for it, BBC's pulled the segment from their channel, and I'd be surprised if this one from Bloomberg stays up through the night. 

Some copies have even been deleted on Twitter, especially after Clarissa Ward RT'd it earlier (though the clip's gone now). 

Some #StandWithUkraine dude has it posted at a long thread showing today's horrific developments. Another copy is here.

Some are calling these "mortar shells" raining down on Irpin, but at the video, that's no mortar. It's a missile.

Both Pamela Brown and Anderson Cooper showed it during their respective news hours, with Cooper leading with it at the top of the hour, issuing a stern content warning: " We want to warn you it [this video] shows precisely what war is, but it's important for you to see it." Yeah, all the live shots of bombed out ground up meat and bone is "important for you to see," to bolster CNN's ratings though the March Nielson's sweep.

Story at the Associated Press, "Ukraine says Russia steps up shelling of residential areas."

And scroll down at the New York Times, here: "Russian forces fire on evacuees, leaving 4 people dead outside Kyiv.The attack in Irpin, west of the capital, suggested either direct targeting of evacuees or disregard for the risk of civilian casualties":

IRPIN, Ukraine — A Russian force advancing on Kyiv fired mortar shells on Sunday at a battered bridge used by evacuees fleeing the fighting, sending panicked civilians running and leaving four people dead on the pavement.

Crowds of hundreds have clustered around the damaged bridge over the Irpin River since Saturday. Ukrainian forces had blown up the bridge earlier to slow the Russian advance. Only a dozen or so Ukrainian soldiers were in the immediate area of the bridge on Sunday, not fighting but helping carry civilians’ luggage and children... 

A New York Times team — including the photojournalist Lynsey Addario; a security adviser; and Andriy Dubchak, the freelance journalist who filmed the scene — witnessed the moment that civilians were fired upon.

As the mortars got closer to the stream of civilians, people ran, pulling children, trying to find a safe spot. But there was nothing to hide behind. A shell landed in the street, sending up a cloud of concrete dust and leaving one family — a woman, her teenage son and a her daughter, who appeared to be about 8 years old; and a family friend — sprawled on the ground.

Soldiers rushed to help, but the woman and children were dead. A man traveling with them still had a pulse but was unconscious and severely wounded. He later died.

Their luggage, a blue roller suitcase and some backpacks, was scattered about, along with a green carrying case for a small dog that was barking...

 

Will Joe Biden, the Second Coming of George McGovern, Give Putin What He Really Wants?

Actually, I'm not trashing President Biden.  

The U.S. response to Russia's invasion hasn't been all bad, though it's true the NATO alliance was caught off guard, and by that I mean most all of the NATO countries have dramatically demilitarized over the last few decades, with the Cold War long in the rear-view mirror. We saw a lot of scrambling the first couple of days of the conflict, and pacific Germany has done a virtual about-face in its foreign policy. Now that's something new for a change. 

It's quite dramatic.

And I can't stress enough powerful are the several rounds of economic sanctions. It's absolutely stunning. Russia has literally been completely removed from the world economy. There are still some oil exports, but these too will dry up as a source of capital for Putin's regime very soon.  

In any case, Biden is no Franklin Roosevelt, much less Lyndon Johnson (who in the end, "lost" Vietnam). Democrats used to fight wars to win. After Afghanistan and Iraq, maybe we will again someday. 

At FrontPage Magazine, "Bombshell Revelations":

“Putin Order Puts Russian Nuke Deterrent Force on High Alert,” the Washington Times reported on February 27. A month before, another report exposed what was going on behind the scenes.

“55 Democrats Urge Biden to Adopt ‘No First Use’ Nuclear Policy,” headlined a January 26 story in Air Force Magazine. The 55 Democrats, including Sen. Elizabeth Warren, a member of the Senate Armed Services Committee, also want to stop deployment of the deployment of the W76-2 low-yield Trident submarine warhead, and the development of a new nuclear-armed sea launched cruise missile.

The Democrats, including four members of the House Armed Services Committee (Andrew Kim, Sara Jacobs, Ro Khanna and John Garamendi), also question the necessity of new nuclear weapons systems. As with opposition to deployment of the W76-2 warhead, such restrictions apply only to the United States.

In 2018, Putin boasted a new nuclear weapon that “can attack any target, through the North or South Pole, it is a powerful weapon and no missile defense system will be able to withstand.” Putin, who also announced a cruise missile system that can “avoid all interceptors.” With President Trump in office, Democrats remained rather quiet about those new threats. Joe Biden has been on that page from the start.

In 1972 the Democrats’ candidate was George McGovern, whose position on “arms control” was essentially the same as the Soviets. America is to blame for the Cold War, McGovern believed, so the Soviets must arm and America must limit.

In his Senate run that year, Biden decried “endless warfare, reliance on false obligations of global power, overt and covert manipulation of foreign regimes, standing as the sentinel of the status quo are not our true styles.” Nothing about aggression from the USSR, then on the march around the globe, and still in control of Eastern Europe.

In the 1972 election, McGovern’s Republican opponent Richard Nixon won 49 states, 521 out of 538 electoral college votes, and 60.83 percent of the popular vote. By any measure, as the New York Times put it, “Senator George McGovern suffered the worst defeat of any Democratic Presidential candidate in history.” That year Joe Biden gained office and went on to represent McGovern’s weak defense policy in the Senate.

During the 1980s Biden supported the nuclear freeze movement, a Soviet-backed initiative that would have locked Soviet gains in place. Biden also opposed the Reagan defense buildup and Strategic Defense Initiative, which had the USSR on its heels.

For the Delaware Democrat living under the threat of a Soviet first strike was entirely acceptable. In 2010, vice president Biden said, “The spread of nuclear weapons is the greatest threat facing the country and, I would argue, facing humanity.” Nothing about the spread of tyranny under Stalinist dictatorships, or the threat of Islamic terrorism, which had already struck down thousands in the American homeland.

“Let me say as clearly and categorically as I can,” vice president Biden said in 2014, “America does not and will not recognize Russian occupation and attempted annexation of Crimea.” The attempted annexation succeeded, and Biden duly accepted it. At the same time, he opposed American efforts to shore up defenses against Russia.

“Given our non-nuclear capabilities and the nature of today’s threats,” Biden said in 2017, “it’s hard to envision a plausible scenario in which the first use of nuclear weapons by the United States would be necessary. Or make sense.” The prospect of a first strike by Putin failed to disturb Biden, who did not hesitate to target President Trump.

“The possibility that the Trump administration may resume nuclear explosive weapons testing in Nevada is as reckless as it is dangerous,” Biden said in May of 2020. “We have not tested a device since 1992; we don’t need to do so now.”

In August of 2020, Biden said. “I will restore American leadership on arms control and nonproliferation as a central pillar of U.S. global leadership.” No word about control of Putin’s aggression, and in 2022, Biden suggests that a “minor incursion” by Putin into Ukraine would be acceptable. That, and Biden’s devastation of the American energy industry, had to encourage the KGB man.

As Ukrainian-American comic Yakov Smirnoff says, the KGB will throw a man off a roof to hit the guy they really want. Putin invades Ukraine but what he really wants is for the United States to reduce its missile defense capabilities. Look for Biden to give the 55 leftist Democrats the reductions they want, while asking nothing from Putin, a big admirer of Joe Stalin.

The addled Joe Biden is the second coming of George McGovern, possibly worse. A blame-America leftist to the core, McGovern had no financial entanglements with totalitarian states in the style of Biden and son Hunter. George McGovern never told African Americans “you ain’t black” if they failed to support him, and never responded to a legitimate question by calling a reporter a “stupid son of a bitch.” And so on.

Joe Biden does all these things, and like Blanche DuBois, they increase with the years. The Delaware Democrat also suffers from Reagan Derangement Syndrome (RDS) and Trump Derangement Syndrome (TDS).

Whatever President Reagan and President Trump did, however successful at strengthening America and stopping Stalinist aggression, Joe Biden must do the opposite. So now it’s springtime for Putin, with bombs falling from the skies again, maybe in places far beyond Ukraine.

 

Under Steady Barrage, Ukrainian Forces Repel Russians

At the New York Times, "Shelling Halts Mariupol Evacuation as Conditions Deteriorate":

LVIV, Ukraine — Frantic efforts to rescue civilians from the worsening violence in Ukraine came under direct attack by Russian forces on Sunday as at least three people were killed in shelling outside Kyiv. Russian forces were struggling to advance on multiple fronts. The Ukrainian military said it was successfully defending its position in fierce fighting north of Kyiv, the capital, and holding back Russians from the east, where President Vladimir V. Putin’s forces bogged down in clashes around an airport.

The United Nations refugee agency said that 1.5 million people had fled Ukraine in the 10 days since Russia’s invasion began, making it the fastest growing refugee crisis in Europe since World War II.

In southern Ukraine, the unexpected Ukrainian success of defending the critical port city of Mykolaiv after three days of intense fighting underscores two emerging trends in the war.

Russia’s failure to seize Mykolaiv and other cities quickly, as President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia appears to have intended, is largely a function of its military’s faltering performance. Russian forces have suffered from logistical snafus, baffling tactical decisions and low morale.

But it is the fierce and, according to many analysts, unexpectedly capable defense by Ukrainian forces, who are significantly outgunned, that has largely stalled the Russian advance and, for now, prevented Mykolaiv from falling into Russian hands.

Here are the latest developments:

* A Russian force advancing on Kyiv fired mortar shells on Sunday at a battered bridge used by evacuees fleeing the fighting, sending panicked civilians running and killing four: a mother and her two children and a family friend traveling with them.

* A planned evacuation of Mariupol — a port city of a half-million people that has become a key battleground in Russia’s objective to capture Ukraine’s entire southern coast — was halted for a second consecutive day amid “intense shelling” by Russian forces that have encircled the city, the mayor’s office said. Residents are facing increasingly dire conditions in the city, which has been cut off from food, heat and electricity for days.

* Amid antiwar rallies across Russia, the police said more than 3,000 people were arrested, the highest nationwide total in any single day of protest in recent memory. An activist group that tracks arrests, OVD-Info, reported detentions in 49 different Russian cities.

* The Biden administration is studying how to supply Russian-made Polish fighter jets to Ukraine, U.S. officials say. President Volodymyr Zelensky is asking for more lethal military aid, especially Russian-made aircraft that Ukrainian pilots know how to fly. Russia threatened countries that allow the Ukrainian military to use their airfields.

* Hundreds of thousands of homes across eastern and southern Ukraine had their gas turned off on Sunday as the areas faced heavy fighting, according to Ukraine’s Gas Transmission System Operator.

* Mr. Zelensky repeated his calls for NATO to enforce a no-fly zone over his country to stop Russia’s aerial attack, saying, “It’s easy when you have the will.” NATO has been unwilling to take such a step, fearful of triggering a wider war with Russia...

 

How Vladimir Putin Weaponizes Refugees

From Ayaan Hirsi Ali, at UnHerd, "Immigrants have become a tool of war":

For the last three decades, Europe’s leaders have pursued a noble strategy to prevent conflict using trade, aid and diplomacy. But their reliance on soft power has had an unintended consequence: it has left them divorced from reality.

Soft-power tools are honourable and often pragmatic methods of conflict prevention and, at times, resolution. Just look at America’s Marshall Plan to rebuild Europe after the Second World War, or the foreign aid provided today by the wealthy West to smaller and poorer nations.

However, as we are now seeing, it is deluded to conclude that evil men can be stopped by soft power alone. In the days since Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine, Europeans have been reminded of the necessity of having a well-funded and well-trained military. It has also become clear that we need to abandon our irrational energy policy, which imagines meeting Europe’s energy needs exclusively from ‘renewable’ sources.

Nevertheless, a key battlefield in the conflict playing out in Ukraine continues to be overlooked — and that is immigration policy. This is, of course, nothing new: just as soft power has been divorced from hard power, so immigration policy has been divorced from national security, even though it has been a destabilising factor in Europe for at least a decade.

Both sides of the immigration equation — the push and pull factors — dramatically affect Europe’s national security. The unyielding flow of immigrants from Africa, the Middle East and South Asia remains a source of civil unease. Social cohesion and national identity have become incendiary issues in polling stations across Europe. Intolerance towards immigrants is high and extremist parties remain popular. At the same time, radical Islamist extremism and the constant threat of terrorism still linger.

Add to this the burden on local resources — on housing, healthcare, education and policing — and it’s hardly surprising that the status quo exacerbates resentment towards immigrants, while undermining trust in the political class. It is no accident that Putin and other adversaries have been using misinformation and disinformation to support anti-immigrant parties and other groups on the far-Right.

What is less well-known, however, is how immigrants have become a tool of war — one that is increasingly deployed by cruel, inhumane autocrats such as Putin.

Since the start of this conflict, at least half a million Ukrainians have crossed into neighbouring countries; according to the EU’s latest warnings, that figure could rise to seven million. To put that in perspective, when Russia invaded Ukraine in 2014, roughly 1.5 million Ukrainians were displaced. But even then, there was no exodus to the EU; the refugees simply relocated to other regions within the country.

This time, however, it’s unclear if Putin will leave any Ukrainian territory for them to flee to. And make no mistake: this is all part his plan. Indeed, Putin has become the world’s leading advocate of hybrid warfare. In 2016, US General Philip Breedlove, Head of Nato forces in Europe, recognised this, warning that “Russia and the Assad regime are deliberately weaponising migration from Syria”.

Yet in recent years, it’s been in Libya that Putin has pursued his most fierce — and secret — weaponisation of migrants...

 Keep reading.


GRAPHIC: At Least 17 Dead in Soccer Melee at Mexico's Querétaro Estadio Corregidora Stadium (PHOTOS)

This tweet is particular gruesome. It's a foaming mob, kicking people to death, stripping off their clothes. Here, "The riot at the Querétaro vs Atlas game spilled outside of the stadium. Reprehensible scene."

Oh! Lord have mercy!

At London's Daily Mail, "Mexican football league suspended after match turns into BLOODBATH: 'Up to 17' fans killed and 'at least 26' injured after fights break out in stands as supporters beat up rivals and strip them NAKED":

At least 17 were killed and 26 people were brutally injured in a football match in Mexico yesterday, according to local reports.

The game between Queretaro and Atlas was suspended when fights broke out.

Unconfirmed reports of deaths emerged amid footage of fans bloodied and unresponsive.

Security opened the gates so women and children could escape to the pitch.

The Liga MX - Mexico's elite football division - announced the suspension of all remaining matches this weekend.

 More here, "VERY STRONG IMAGES FROM QUERÉTARO CORREGIDORA STADIUM. The bars fought brutally, there are wounded and unofficially dead. NO TO VIOLENCE IN STADIUMS, IN SPORTS, IN FOOTBALL," here, "Picture captured of man in the total choas that broke out at the Liga MX soccer match between Atlas and Querétaro."

See also, "Soccer Match Gets Suspended As Gruesome Riot Ends With 17 Fans Dead & Counting (VIDEO + PICS)."


Fish-Matching Woman

 I love this lad, "Woo-hoo fishy woman ... she's got the scales in her eyes..."

On Twitter. 


 


Nightmare! Sky News Journalists Take Fire, Attacked by Russian 'Death Squads' (VIDEO)

You can see the rounds pounding the vehicle. One of the journalists took a couple to his bullet-proof vest body armor, and another was shot in the lower back. 

Here, "Sky News team's harrowing account of their violent ambush in Ukraine this week":

On Monday, near Kyiv, chief correspondent Stuart Ramsay and his team were attacked. Camera operator Richie Mockler took two rounds to his body armour, Stuart was wounded. Their experience illustrates the scale of the mayhem and violence as Russia's invasion enters a new and deadlier phase.


Saturday, March 5, 2022

Masha Gessen, The Future is History

At Amazon, Masha Gessen, The Future is History: How Totalitarianism Reclaimed Russia.


Shop Pop Music

At Amazon, Pop Rock CDs and Vinyl.

MORE:

Antivirus and Security Software.

* PlayStation 5.

* Best Sellers in Office and School Suppllies.

* Shop Electronics.

* Pet Food and Supplies.

BONUS: Michael McFaul, From Cold War to Hot Peace: An American Ambassador in Putin's Russia.


Viewers Tune In to CNN's Ukraine Coverage

Here's CNN's own report, "Viewers Tune In CNN’s Extensive and Worldwide Coverage of the Russian Invasion of Ukraine."

And at Showbiz 101, "War is Good For Prime Time Cable: CNN Shows Rise by a Million or More Viewers During Ukraine Crisis."

I'm enjoying the coverage very much. It's been excellent, well-informed, immediate (with phenomenal on-the-ground reporting), featuring outstanding guests, impartial and professional. 

Clarissa Ward has been particularly outstanding. 

It reminds me of CNN of the early years, especially during the 1980s and 1990s when I used to tune in a lot.

Seen on Twitter:




How Vladimir Putin Brought the West Together

 At Der Speigel, "United By Danger":

The Ukraine war is uniting the West – politically, militarily, morally. But what will the world's democracies do with this newfound unity? Can they succeed in preventing further escalation?

The small Romanian town of Câmpia Turzii doesn't look like the kind of place where global political developments take place. The bed of gravel in front of the town hall is waiting for new asphalt, the "Asia” market next door has lost its "i," and the hotel on the outskirts of town bears the simple name A3. The town’s biggest attraction stands at the city limits. Once you pass the last single-family homes, you suddenly find yourself in front of a mounted aircraft. A blue, Soviet-produced MiG-21 fighter jet juts into the sky like a signpost.

Câmpia Turzii has been home to an air base for almost 70 years. During the Cold War, Warsaw Pact pilots took off and landed here. These days, though, NATO troops are stationed behind the metal gate.

People waited for precisely that for more than 50 years, says Laura Ștefan, a Romanian who works for the Expert Forum, which promotes trans-Atlantic relations. "The Americans were the salvation," she says. "When the first U.S. soldiers moved in, people greeted them with flowers."

NATO, the West – synonymous for many with freedom and prosperity back when Romania joined NATO in 2004.

Today, the country that has for so long stood in the shadow of European history is a front-line state. "We border Ukraine," Ștefan says. "If it came to an invasion of Romania, that would be the end. For many of us, but also for Putin. But I don’t think an invasion of Romania is likely. Still, we have to be prepared for anything.”

Slowly, we're running out of comparisons for grasping the magnitude of what is currently happening. Just a week ago, Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine brought to mind events like Saddam Hussein’s 1990 attack on Kuwait – a large scale and ultimately devastating military operation, but also one whose impact at first seemed limited to the region.

In the meantime, however, an open and brutal war is raging, and Putin’s threat of using nuclear weapons is evoking the darkest moments in human history: the fateful chain of events that triggered World War I in 1914 and the unleashing of World War II through the invasion of Poland on the orders of a single, megalomaniacal dictator.

.. Few spoke seriously during the Kuwait crisis about the possibility of an imminent third world war. Today, many are using that expression, from the German Green Party politician Jürgen Trittin to the British-American presidential adviser Fiona Hill, who says the global conflict began long ago – with the assassination attempts by Russian agents in the West, for example.

The same West that for so long seemed powerless in the face of Putin’s provocations has now been united by his attack on Ukraine in a way that neither the Kremlin nor Western politicians could have foreseen...

More.

 

Gas Prices in Los Angeles

On Twitter earlier today:


Is the Russian Air Force Actually Incapable of Complex Air Operations?

At Instapundit, "'One of the greatest surprises from the initial phase of the Russian invasion of Ukraine has been the inability of the Russian Aerospace Forces (VKS) fighter and fighter-bomber fleets to establish air superiority, or to deploy significant combat power in support of the under-performing Russian ground forces. On the first day of the invasion, an anticipated series of large-scale Russian air operations in the aftermath of initial cruise- and ballistic-missile strikes did not materialise'."