Friday, January 5, 2018

The Democrats' 'Russian Descent'

This is good, from Kim Strassel, at WSJ, "Tactics in the Trump probe are starting to look a lot like McCarthyism":
Democrats have spent weeks making the case that the Russia-Trump probes need to continue, piling on demands for more witnesses and documents. So desperate is the left to keep this Trump cudgel to hand that Senate Intelligence Committee Democrats have moved toward neo- McCarthyism.

If that sounds hyperbolic, consider an email recently disclosed by the Young Turks Network, a progressive YouTube news channel. It’s dated Dec. 19, 2017, and its author is April Doss, senior counsel for the committee’s Democrats, including Vice Chairman Mark Warner.

Ms. Doss was writing to Robert Barnes, an attorney for Charles C. Johnson, the controversial and unpleasant alt-right blogger. Mr. Johnson’s interactions with Julian Assange inspired some in the media to speculate last year that Mr. Johnson had served as a back channel between the Trump campaign and WikiLeaks. There’s still no proof, but in July the Intelligence Committee sent a letter requesting Mr. Johnson submit to them any documents, emails, texts or the like related to “any communications with Russian persons” in a variety of 2016 circumstances, including those related to “the 2016 U.S. Presidential Campaign.”

Mr. Barnes seems to have wanted clarification from Ms. Doss about the definition of “Russian persons.” And this would make sense, since it’s a loose term. Russians in Russia? Russians in America? Russians with business in the country? Russians who lobby the U.S. and might be affected by the election—though not in contact with campaigns?

Ms. Doss’s response was more sweeping than any of these: “The provision we discussed narrowing was clarifying that the phrase ‘Russian persons’ in [the committee letter] may be read to refer to persons that Mr. Johnson knows or has reason to believe are of Russian nationality or descent” (emphasis added).

If this stands, Democrats will have gone far beyond criminalizing routine government contacts with Russians, which is disturbing enough. Trump transition and administration officials have been smeared and subjected to exhaustive investigation merely for doing their job, which includes interacting with Russian officials or diplomats. Attorney General Jeff Sessions has spent the past year having to justify why, as a U.S. senator, he shook hands with the Russian ambassador. The running joke in today’s Washington is that one risks a subpoena merely for ordering a salad with Russian dressing.

But the definition in the Doss letter potentially takes all this much further. It could be that Ms. Doss was simply trying to prevent a recalcitrant witness from evading legitimate requests. But it could mean you are now officially under suspicion by the U.S. government—subject to requisitioning your emails and texts or getting your own subpoena—if your parents or even great-great-grandparents were Russkis. By some estimates, the Russian-American community is more than three million strong, and quite a few of them are Mr. Warner’s congressional colleagues, including Bernie Sanders.

This comes from a Democratic Party that supposedly rejects group-based discrimination. Substitute the words “Arab or Arab background” into a hypothetical Republican version of the letter, and the left would melt down—not without reason.

The Doss letter suggests this is of a piece with the Democrats’ manic effort to keep the Trump-Russia investigations going, no matter what. As Republican congressional leaders have hinted that their probes may be wrapping up, the left’s demands and tactics have become ever more desperate. The Washington Post this past weekend ran a piece straight out of House Intelligence Committee ranking member Adam Schiff’s talking points, regurgitating complaints that Chairman Devin Nunes has run an incomplete probe. The accusation inspired House Oversight Committee Chairman Trey Gowdy to quip that Mr. Schiff’s desired witness list is “pretty much every character in any Dostoevsky or Tolstoy novel.”

The House Intelligence committee has collected nearly 300,000 documents, conducted 67 transcribed witness interviews, and issued 18 subpoenas. It’s held 11 hearings, taken 164 hours of testimony, and reviewed 5,251 pages of that testimony. It’s spent 346 days investigating Russian meddling. The country deserves the committee’s final recommendations as to how to avoid further Russian interference, especially given we are again in an election year...
Hat Tip: RCP.

Laura Ingraham: President Trump Outsmarts the Establishment 'Intellectual Elite' (VIDEO)

Here's Ms. Laura with "The Angle," from last night:



Sara Jean Underwood in Wet T-Shirt

She's fabulous pinup babe.

At Taxi Driver, "Sara Jean Underwood Boobs in Wet White T-Shirt."


Farms Facing Shrinking Immigrant Labor Pool

First thing I thought when I started reading this piece, is, "No, American workers worked Central Valley fields in the 1930s and '40s, workers escaping the devastation of Dust Bowl America (the Okies).

The piece does mention them, as a sop to history.

I just know that if wages were high enough, Americans would take these jobs. I would have picked cantaloupes in the 1980s if owners were paying me $12.00 an hour. The Times had a piece last year where growers near Sacramento were paying $15.00 and up (with some growers expecting to pay wages from $18.00 to $20.00 an hour).

It's simple economics. There's no shame in working an honest job. The fact that dark-skinned people have done it for so long doesn't mean that hard-working U.S. citizens won't work the fields. Immigrant labor drags down wages. Growers like it that way, giving the shiv to regular citizens.

At LAT, "Born in the U.S.A. and working in the fields — what gives?":

Nicholas Andrew Flores swatted at the flies orbiting his sweat-drenched face as he picked alongside a crew of immigrants through a cantaloupe field in California's Central Valley.

The 21-year-old didn't speak Spanish, but he understood the essential words the foreman barked out: Puro amarillo. And rapido, rapido! Quickly, Flores picked only yellow melons and flung them onto a moving platform.

It was hard and repetitive work, and there were days under the searing sun that Flores regretted not going to a four-year college. But he liked that to get the job he just had to "show up." And at $12 an hour, it paid better than slinging fast food.

For Joe Del Bosque of Del Bosque Farms in the San Joaquin Valley, American-born pickers like Flores, though rare, are always welcome.

For generations, rural Mexico has been the primary source of hired farm labor in the U.S. According to a federal survey, nine out of 10 agricultural workers in places like California are foreign-born, and more than half are in the U.S. illegally.

But farm labor from Mexico has been on the decline in California. And under the Trump administration, many in the agricultural industry worry that deportations — and the fear of them — could further cut the supply of workers.

But try as they have to entice workers with better salaries and benefits, companies have found it impossible to attract enough U.S.-born workers to make up for a shortage from south of the border.

Del Bosque said he'll hire anyone who shows up ready to work. But that rarely means someone born in the U.S.

"Americans will say, 'You can't pay me enough to do this kind of work,'" Del Bosque said. "They won't do it. They'll look for something easier."

For some immigrants working the fields, people like Flores are a puzzle — their sweating next to them represents a kind of squandering of an American birthright.

"It's hard to be here under the sun. It's a waste of time and their talents in the fields," said Norma Felix, 58, a Mexican picker for almost three decades. "They don't take advantage of their privilege and benefit of being born here. They could easily work in an office."

Most don't last long, she said.

"There is always one or two who show up every season," Felix said. "They show up for three or four days and turn around and leave."

Agriculture's reliance on immigrant labor, especially in the American West, goes back to the late 1800s, after the completion of the First Transcontinental Railroad, said J. Edward Taylor, a UC Davis rural economist.

"The domestic farm workforce was simply not big enough to support the growth of labor-intensive fruit and vegetable crops," he said...

Thursday, January 4, 2018

Dan Simmons, Ilium

At Amazon, Ilium (Ilium Series Book #1).



Laura Ingraham: Trump/Bannon Feud Has Set Off a 'Pavlovian Feeding-Frenzy in the Media' (VIDEO)

I should watch her show. As noted many times now, I quit watching television news. But I do itch for some partisan news reporting, conservative news reporting, and there are few better plugged into the populist beat than Ms. Laura.

Maybe I'll watch tonight. She's good.

From last night, at Ingraham Angle on Fox:



BONUS: At NYT, via Memeorandum, "Trump Demands That Publisher Halt Release of Critical Book." (That's a huge thread on Trump/Bannon at Memeorandum.)

Maitland Ward on Twitter

She's got one shot right here that's virtually pornographic.

And there's more:


Wednesday, January 3, 2018

Strangled by Identity

This is great, at National Affairs:


American politics is overwhelmed by bitterness and rancor. The norms that structure the work of our constitutional system are everywhere under attack. Partisan loyalties now seem to determine not only people's worldviews and policy priorities but also what facts they will accept or choose to treat as lies. The rhetoric of animus and apocalypse is the everyday parlance of both parties, particularly when each talks about the other. And although this polarization may have its roots inside the Beltway, its toxicity pervades the public.

None of this began with Donald Trump. It was all there in the culture wars of the Obama years and in the deep divisions of the Bush era. It is systemic. Our political dysfunction in this century looks less like a failure of individuals and more like a corrosion of our entire political culture and its institutions.

Many observers of this problem, especially on the right though increasingly on the left as well, tend to explain it by resorting to critiques of "identity politics." But identity politics is something we tend to see others doing while failing to recognize that we are doing it ourselves. And because we tend to miss the breadth of its scope and reach, we fail to see not only how central it is to the trouble with our politics but also how it might be overcome.

Identity politics is not just a problem of the left. It is a way of thinking that pervades our self-understanding. Our rancorous political conversation now consists of three competing theories of identity in America — three stories of how our differing backgrounds should shape our common political life. One of these (espoused by a significant swath of the left but increasingly co-opted by an influential minority on the right) treats politics as a continuous struggle across racial lines, and so conceives of coalitions on racial grounds. Another (advanced more commonly on the right in our time) insists that the principled distinction in our politics is not between racial groups but along the legal line of citizens versus non-citizens. Finally, the third theory of identity (espoused by some elites of both parties, and barely aware of itself as a theory of identity at all) views the other two schools of thought as pernicious and proposes its own form of identity defined by an ideal of cosmopolitan dignity.

Each of these theories, as practiced, is unstable. And each rejects the other two as un-American without really quite understanding them. It is this problem — our country's conceptual blind spot on identity — that drives so much of our present polarization. To be sure, disagreements over identity are a causa causans of why Republicans and Democrats can barely get along. But it isn't only that the two sides speak different languages; it's that our political languages fall short of our political needs.

The solution is not a new and improved theory of identity, although in time the country could use one. Instead, a practical solution would require us to begin by pivoting from philosophy to institutions. It is all well and good to debate the various theories of identity. But our leaders should also focus on building and sustaining those institutions that can concretely ground a functional civic life — one that works in practice even if it sometimes seems as though it couldn't work in theory. To begin this work, we should seek to better understand the quandary of American identity, so that we might rise above it.
More.


Karolina Szymczak Pictorial

At Editorials Fashions Trends, "EROTIC EDITORIALS: KAROLINA SZYMCZAK BY DAVID BELLEMERE."

Katherine J. Cramer, The Politics of Resentment

At Amazon, Katherine J. Cramer, The Politics of Resentment: Rural Consciousness in Wisconsin and the Rise of Scott Walker.



David Patrikarakos, War in 140 Characters

At Amazon, David Patrikarakos, War in 140 Characters: How Social Media Is Reshaping Conflict in the Twenty-first Century.



Bruce Schneier, Data and Goliath

At Amazon, Bruce Schneier, Data and Goliath: The Hidden Battles to Collect Your Data and Control Your World.



Alexander Roy, The Driver

At Amazon, Alexander Roy, The Driver: My Dangerous Pursuit of Speed and Truth in the Outlaw Racing World.



Lisa Ko, The Leavers

*BUMPED.*

At Amazon, Lisa Ko, The Leavers: A Novel.



Jessica Biel in Workout Gear

At Popoholic and Twitter. Justin Timberlake's got a fine squeeze, heh:


Claudia Romani

At Egotastic! and elsewhere:


The View of the Blinkered

From VDH, at American Greatness:


The Next Revolution in Military Affairs

Eliot Cohen published the classic piece on the topic in 1996, at Foreign Affairs, "A Revolution in Warfare."

I don't worry about the U.S. being overtaken in the military technology realm anytime soon. But just in case, here's this at the National Interest, "The Next Revolution In Military Affairs: How America's Military Will Dominate":


A Revolution in Military Affairs (RMA) is a theory about the evolution of warfare over time. An RMA is based on the marriage of new technologies with organizational reforms and innovative concepts of operations. The result is often characterized as a new way of warfare. There have been a number of RMAs just in the past century.

An example of an RMA is the mechanization of warfare that began in World War I with the introduction of military airpower, aircraft carriers, submarines and armored fighting vehicles. Out of these advances in technology came independent air forces, strategic bombardment and large-scale amphibious operations. Another occurred with the invention of nuclear weapons and long-range ballistic missiles leading to the creation of new organizations such as the now-defunct Strategic Air Command and new concepts such as deterrence. In the 1970s, the advent of information technologies and high-performance computing led to an ongoing RMA based largely on improved intelligence and precision strike weapons. The 1991 Gulf War and Operation Iraqi Freedom in 2003 are considered to be quintessential examples of this RMA.

According to the theory of dialectics, all revolutions give rise to counter-revolutions. The counter to the precision strike revolution arose in the form of anti-access/area denial (A2/AD) capabilities. These included weapons systems such as sophisticated air defenses, long-range precision fires and unmanned vehicles. But more significantly, the A2/AD counterrevolution seeks to exploit new means of combat -- electronic and cyber warfare, in particular, and operations in domains such as outer space -- to attack the sensors, networks, and command and control systems on which the precision strike revolution was based.

A still new RMA could be imminent. It is a function, first and foremost, of the proliferation of sensors and so-called smart devices, the creation of increasingly large, complex and sophisticated information networks, and growing potential in automated systems and artificial intelligence. The first step in this revolution, now evident in the commercial world and our personal lives, is the rise of the “Internet of Things.” But it is the marriage of ubiquitous information collection, virtually unlimited data storage, advanced computational analytics and global, near-instantaneous communications that will truly revolutionize the world.

This emergent RMA is also driven by the need to address the A2/AD challenge and to more fully exploit the opportunities presented by new technologies and concepts of operations. Electronic and cyber “weapons” can be employed both offensively and defensively. Sensors and weapons in each of the domains of warfare (land, air, sea, outer space and cyberspace) can be employed in all others.

The current overarching concept encompassing the various aspects of the new RMA is Multi-Domain Battle (MDB). Although the MDB approach to future warfare is still evolving, one reasonable definition of it can be found in the U.S. Army’s Training and Doctrine Command draft document, Multi-Domain Battle: Evolution of Combined Arms for the 21st Century, 2025-2040: “a new, holistic approach to align friendly forces’ actions across domains, environments, and functions in time and physical spaces to achieve specific purposes in combat, as well as before and after combat in competition.” The key to the conduct of MDB is something called “convergence.” This is defined in the same document as...

U.C. Santa Cruz Can't Attract Enough Transfer Students

Now this is a surprise, since the entire State of California has gone to the dogs of social justice and political correctness. Seems like far-left U.C. Santa Cruz would be just the ticket for degenerate left-wing students looking to tune out and burn out.

Maybe all that social justice crap is a turnoff for regular people, after all.

At LAT, "U.C. Santa Cruz has offerings far beyond hippies and banana slugs. So why can't it draw more transfer students?":
UC Santa Cruz sits on an idyllic expanse of redwood groves and rolling meadows. World-class surf is just minutes away.

Its researchers were the first to arrange the DNA sequence of the human genome and make it publicly available.

About nine miles away, Cabrillo College in Aptos is the closest community college. But at a recent UC Santa Cruz sales pitch featuring University of California President Janet Napolitano, numerous Cabrillo students made it clear Santa Cruz wasn't their first transfer choice. Cal State is cheaper and classes are smaller, said one student. Santa Cruz housing is too expensive, said another. Several named UCLA or UC Berkeley as their dream schools.

"Santa Cruz life is too hippie for me." said Rachel Biddleman, a 21-year-old studying political science. "I'm more of a city person."

UC Santa Cruz recently launched a million-dollar effort to reach out to community college students around the state in an effort to change minds and boost its transfer numbers. The university is under pressure to meet state demands that eight of the nine UC undergraduate campuses enroll one transfer student for every two freshmen. Santa Cruz and Riverside both fall short, a failure Gov. Jerry Brown cited last year as one reason why he is withholding $50 million from UC's budget.

Last year, Santa Cruz enrolled about three freshmen for every transfer student. Of the campuses under state scrutiny, only Riverside did worse, with about four freshman per transfer.

State finance officials will decide this spring if the campuses have made sufficient "good faith efforts" toward meeting the ratio, which was set by Brown and Napolitano in 2015, said H.D. Palmer, the spokesman for the state finance department. He said one reason why Brown is pushing for increases is that they provide a more cost-efficient path to a four-year degree because transfer students complete their first two years of studies at the less expensive community colleges.

UC Santa Cruz Chancellor George Blumenthal, however, considers finance bureaucrats judging university enrollment actions "unbelievable micromanagement."

But he says the campus is trying hard — starting with correcting what he said were misperceptions. People still hear the name and picture the campus "Rolling Stone" once dubbed "the stonedest place on earth."

"Some people still think of us as a kooky place … as banana slugs, hippies and protests," he said. "We're also a serious university."

At Cabrillo College, Blumenthal talked up the work on the human genome project, as well as research in marine science and astronomy and astrophysics. Students got the chance to meet a Santa Cruz faculty member whose team won worldwide acclaim this fall for becoming the first to capture the light generated by a cataclysmic merger of two neutron stars. Last fall, the London-based Times Higher Education ranked UC Santa Cruz third in the world in research influence based on how many times scholars cited its work.

Blumenthal told students from four area community colleges about the university's undergraduate research opportunities, emphasis on social justice and leadership in environmental sustainability. He said a new summer academy could help them make the transition.

Napolitano pitched UC's generous financial aid, diversity and support for immigrants. "The doors to the University of California are open. ... Right next door is UC Santa Cruz!" she said.
More.


Emily Ratajkowski Talks Feminism

Being "sexualized" gives the finger to the patriarchy, or something.

At London's Daily Mail:


'I think it's a very, very powerful and potent tool...'

Here's Michelle Malkin, on Fox News:


Danielle Gersh's Wednesday Weather Forecast

We don't have much to complain about on the West Coast, except perhaps not enough rain.

I'm glad we're not having subfreezing temperatures like the East Coast.

Here's the beautiful Ms. Danielle, for CBS 2 News Los Angeles:



Tuesday, January 2, 2018

Danielle Gersh's Tuesday Forecast

I was up early this morning, reading and blogging.

I think I might go back to bed for a while, heh.

Meanwhile, here's the lovely Ms. Danielle.

More blogging later.



Shop New Year's Deals

At Amazon, Today's Deals.

And especially, Save Big on NordicTrack Equipment.

Also, Optimum Nutrition Gold Standard 100% Whey Protein Powder, Naturally Flavored Chocolate, 4.8 Pound.

Plus, CLIF BAR - Energy Bar - Blueberry Crisp - (2.4-Ounce Protein Bar, 12 Count).

Here, ProFitness Genuine Leather Workout Belt (4 Inches Wide) – Proper Weightlifting Form – Lower Back and Lumbar Support for CrossFit Exercises, Powerlifting Workouts, Deadlifts.

Still more, COWIN E7 Wireless Bluetooth Headphones with Mic Hi-Fi Deep Bass Wireless Headphones Over Ear, Comfortable Protein Earpads, 30 Hours Playtime for Travel Work TV Computer Phone - Black.

Finally, Samsung 65" 4K Ultra HD Smart LED TV 2017 Model (UN65MU6300) with 2x 6ft High Speed HDMI Cable, Stanley 6-Outlet Surge Adapter, Screen Cleaner for LED TVs & 1 Year Extended Warranty.

BONUS: Chris D. Thomas, Inheritors of the Earth: How Nature Is Thriving in an Age of Extinction.

Demi Lovato Rocks Striped Swimsuit in Racy Instagram Photo

At London's Daily Mail, "Cheeky! Demi Lovato flaunts her pert derriere in racy Instagram snap while sporting striped bathing suit."

Plus, "How Lo(vato) can you go? Braless Demi Lovato shows off gravity-defying cleavage in VERY plunging sequined jumpsuit as she puts on sizzling performance in Miami."


Maria Menounos Gets Married

She just had brain surgery a few months ago, for cancer.

What a woman!


Logan Paul Apologizes

I've never heard of this guy, but he's stirred up an extremely angry nest of Internet outrage.

At Variety, "Logan Paul Apologizes for Posting Video of Apparent Suicide Victim: 'I Didn't Do It for Views'."

Also, at the Guardian U.K., "YouTube star Logan Paul has apologized after posting a video of the body of an alleged suicide victim he found in a Japanese forest; the video was removed."

And on Twitter, "Okay. Logan Paul is straight up retarded. You find a dead body in the Japanese Suicide Forest and instead of turning off the video and trying to get help for the dead guy, you vlog it? Seriously. You’re an idiot. I still find it hard to believe @YouTube still supports him."

And from iJustine:


Samantha Hoopes Takes it Off (VIDEO)

At Sports Illustrated:



Gal Gadot: FHM's Sexiest Woman of 2017

Hey, she's a great choice!


Plus, she's topless here.

BONUS: At the Fappening, "Gal Gadot Topless and Sexy."

Lucy Pinder 2018 Calendar

Following-up, "Happy New Year!"

It looks like Ms. Lucy's doing really well --- she's continuing with her ample success, with an emphasis on *ample*. (IYKWIMAITYD.)

At the Sun U.K., "GONNA BE A GOOD YEAR -- Lucy Pinder looks gorgeous in pictures from her 2018 calendar: The former Celebrity Big Brother star wows in revealing lingerie as she poses for her latest calendar." (And FHM below.)



Chloe Goodman in Red One Piece Swimsuit

She's apparently "a model and television personality."

Nice bathing suit, either way.

At Taxi Driver:



New Wave of Optimism Prompts Business Investment: The 'Trump Effect" Will Cause Leftist Heads to Explode

Man, it must have practically killed those idiots at the leftist New York Times to publish this, but here it is. I love it!

See, "The Trump Effect: Business, Anticipating Less Regulation, Loosens Purse Strings":


WASHINGTON — A wave of optimism has swept over American business leaders, and it is beginning to translate into the sort of investment in new plants, equipment and factory upgrades that bolsters economic growth, spurs job creation — and may finally raise wages significantly.

While business leaders are eager for the tax cuts that take effect this year, the newfound confidence was initially inspired by the Trump administration’s regulatory pullback, not so much because deregulation is saving companies money but because the administration has instilled a faith in business executives that new regulations are not coming.

“It’s an overall sense that you’re not going to face any new regulatory fights,” said Granger MacDonald, a home builder in Kerrville, Tex. “We’re not spending more, which is the main thing. We’re not seeing any savings, but we’re not seeing any increases.”

The applause from top executives has been largely reserved for the administration’s economic policy agenda. Many chief executives have been publicly critical of President Trump’s approach to social and cultural issues, including his response to a white nationalist march over the summer in Charlottesville, Va., that turned deadly and his decision to withdraw from the Paris climate accord. Two of the business advisory councils that Mr. Trump assembled in the nascent days of his presidency disbanded after executives grew concerned about his public remarks on the violence in Charlottesville.

There is little historical evidence tying regulation levels to growth. Regulatory proponents say, in fact, that those rules can have positive economic effects in the long run, saving companies from violations that could cost them both financially and reputationally. Cost-benefit analyses generally do not look just at the impact of a regulation on a particular business’s bottom line in the coming months, but at the broader impact on consumers, the environment, public health and other factors that can show up over years or decades.

But in the administration and across the business community, there is a perception that years of increased environmental, financial and other regulatory oversight by the Obama administration dampened investment and job creation — and that Mr. Trump’s more hands-off approach has unleashed the “animal spirits” of companies that had hoarded cash after the recession of 2008.

Some businesses will essentially be able to get away with shortcuts that they could not have under a continuation of Obama-era policies. The coal industry, for instance, will not have to worry about a regulation, overturned by Congress and Mr. Trump, that would have protected streams from mining runoff.

Brett Hartl, the government affairs director at the Center for Biological Diversity, said the Trump administration might avoid big-splash regulatory rollbacks this year and instead would make it harder for federal agencies to block business expansion.

“It’s not going to be sexy things like ‘We’re killing the Clean Power Plan,’” Mr. Hartl said, referring to the Obama-era rule aimed at curbing greenhouse gas emissions from coal-fired power plants. “But you can make it systematically harder for an agency to do the right thing.”

Only a handful of the federal government’s reams of rules have actually been killed or slated for elimination since Mr. Trump took office. But the president has declared that rolling back regulations will be a defining theme of his presidency. On his 11th day in office, Mr. Trump signed an executive order “on reducing regulation and controlling regulatory costs,” including the stipulation that any new regulation must be offset by two regulations rolled back.

That intention and its rhetorical and regulatory follow-ons have executives at large and small companies celebrating. And with tax cuts coming and a generally improving economic outlook, both domestically and internationally, economists are revising growth forecasts upward for last year and this year.

Even before it became clear that Republicans would pass a major tax cut, capital spending had risen significantly, climbing at an annualized rate of 6.2 percent during the first three quarters of last year. Surveys of planned spending also show increases...
That part above concerning the "little historical evidence" on how regulations kill economic growth is pure baloney. If anything, perhaps the authors are alluding to how the historical legal-institutional framework of the American economy has contributed to the consolidation of markets and secure property rights. No one argues against such a regulatory framework. Nope. Business leaders and entrepreneurs are now responding to the Trump administration's incentives and market signals for an expansionary business environment. Think of the opposite in the previous administration: Obama, "So if somebody wants to build a coal-powered plant, they can; it's just that it will bankrupt them, because they're going to be charged a huge sum for all that greenhouse gas that's being emitted..." Hillary, "We're going to put a lot of coal miners and coal companies out of business..."


That's the difference. It's a fundamental philosophical shift that's changed actors' expectations in the market. (And of course, we're not just talking about the coal industry. This is an economy-wide phenomenon. This is what's really beneath the slogan, "Make America Great Again" --- a return to the political, economic, and cultural fundamentals that have driven American prosperity and success.)

Well, continue reading, in any case.

More People with Autism Pursuing Higher Education

My young son's on the autism spectrum. I just say he's autistic, but for some reason people don't like being that specific. It used to be that he had "ADHD," but that was only part of it, or perhaps even a misdiagnosis. In any case, my son's been having intense behavioral problems. He's been around bad influences at his school, kids who're having their own family or behavioral problems. He's been introduced to vaping (and worse). And he's been hard to handle.

In any case, we're getting him medical help, therapy and what not. But it's an issue for parents as well. You want to see your kids being successful.

So, this piece caught my attention, at the Chicago Tribune, "Chicago man's success shows college dreams within reach for more people with autism":

It was never a question whether Paris King would go to college.

The 23-year-old, who is on the autism spectrum, loved learning — especially history — and he and his parents saw no reason why he shouldn’t continue to do so after high school.

But during the four years King spent earning his bachelor’s degree in history at Roosevelt University, he endured setbacks that would have challenged any student. His father died. King was diagnosed with multiple sclerosis. He was mugged near his home. And his mother was diagnosed with breast cancer that required aggressive treatment.

So when King walked across the stage and received his diploma Friday at a graduation ceremony, he was cheered on by faculty, family and friends for not only believing that a person with autism is capable of college, but also for overcoming enormous personal challenges to become a role model for people with disabilities.

“Paris never has a bad attitude,” said Danielle Smith, associate director of academic success at Roosevelt University. “He always finds a way to do it.”

King is one of four students with autism who graduated with bachelor’s degrees from Roosevelt this year, a number that has been steadily increasing for the past four years, Smith said.

“I came to college so I can learn more about the world we live in,” King said. “It has been a fun experience, but it has been hard.”

The increase at Roosevelt mirrors a national trend of students with autism enrolling in and finishing college. Because universities cannot, by law, require students to report autism or other disabilities in college applications, exact numbers are hard to pin down. But anecdotally, advocates say the large increase in the number of people diagnosed with autism is prompting more conversations about how to offer opportunities and access to the growing population.

And in turn, more students on the autism spectrum are pursuing bigger education goals.

“It’s really important for every individual to be able to have access to lifelong learning opportunities,” said Vanda Marie Khadem, founder of the Autism Higher Education Foundation, which launched in 2008 with a mission of opening access to education for people on the autism spectrum.

“Parents are demanding it, and students are demanding it, and teachers are recognizing it,” she said.

King, the youngest of three children, grew up in a Navy family that relocated several times when he was young. As a toddler growing up in San Diego, he exhibited speech delays, sensitivity to noise and fixations with hobbies. But after a doctor’s quick evaluation incorrectly determined King was not on the autism spectrum, and instead had an unspecified learning disability, his parents carried on, handling his idiosyncrasies without guidance from doctors or educators, said his mother, Patricia King.

The family moved to the Chicago area by the time Paris King was of school age. Because he struggled to focus and missed social cues, he often was separated into classes for students with behavioral problems. King also became the target of bullies. At 12 years old, he was diagnosed to be on the autism spectrum — a revelation that triggered mixed emotions from his parents, his mother recalled.

“I felt irresponsible, because as we know now, the earlier you’re able to get intervention and get them the help they need, the better they do,” Patricia King said.

But it also motivated Paris King’s parents to advocate for him and his access to educational opportunities from that point on, she added.

“It was definitely in the plan for him to go to college,” she said. “We believed that he had the ability … and the whole plan was to support him as much as he could, to make sure that he had the tools that he needed.”

With encouragement from his teachers at Gary Comer College Prep High School, where he graduated with honors, King applied to Roosevelt University. He and his parents sought out the university’s Academic Success Center, which works with students with disabilities to help them meet the same class and credit requirements expected of all students.

King began meeting twice a week for an hour with Smith, of the academic center, who was impressed with the way he tackled difficult assignments, from term papers on ancient African tribes to readings on renewable energy. King takes longer to focus and get his thoughts onto paper than some of his classmates, but he never lets his challenges stifle him, Smith said.
More.

Iran's Revolution of National Dignity

From Sohrab Ahmari and Peter Kohanloo, at Commentary, "An Iranian Revolution of National Dignity":


Iran is convulsing with the largest mass uprising since the 2009 Green Movement. Demonstrations that began last week in the city of Mashhad, home to the shrine of the eighth Shiite imam, have now spread to dozens of cities. And while the slogans initially addressed inflation, joblessness, and graft, they soon morphed into outright opposition to the mullahs. As we write, the authorities have blocked access to popular social-media sites and closed off subway stations in the capital, Tehran, to prevent crowd sizes from growing. At least 12 people have been killed in clashes with security forces.

What is happening in the Islamic Republic?

After nearly four decades of plunderous and fanatical Islamist rule, Iranians are desperate to become a normal nation-state once more, and they refuse to be exploited for an ideological cause that long ago lost its luster. It is a watershed moment in Iran’s history: The illusion of reform within the current theocratic system has finally been shattered. Iranians, you might say, are determined to make Iran great again.

Their movement is attuned to the worldwide spirit of nationalist renewal. From the U.S. to India, and from South Africa to Britain, political leaders and the voters who elect them are reaffirming the enduring value of the nation-state. Iran hasn’t been immured from these developments, as the slogans of the current protests indicate. No longer using the rights-based lexicon of votes and recounts, Iranians are instead demanding national dignity from a regime that for too long has subjugated Iranian-ness to its Shiite, revolutionary mission.

It’s notable, for example, that protestors chant “We Will Die to Get Iran Back,” “Not Gaza, Not Lebanon, My Life Only for Iran,” and “Let Syria Be, Do Something for Me.” Put another way: The people are tired of paying the price for the regime’s efforts to remake the region in its own image and challenge U.S. “hegemony.” Some have even taken to chanting “Reza Shah, Bless Your Soul,” expressing gratitude and nostalgia for the Pahlavi era, which saw the modern, pro-Western nation-state of Iran emerge from the shambles of the Persian Empire.

Iran’s Islamist rulers have never had a comfortable relationship with Iranian nationalism. In the early post-revolutionary days, Ayatollah Khomeini’s followers set out to rip the pre-Islamic threads that formed the tapestry of national identity: pride in the Persian New Year, the architectural glories of Persepolis, and the epic poetry that has long shaped the national soul–all these things were deemphasized if not altogether forbidden.

More recently, however, the regime has sought to harness its ideological and regional ambitions to national pride and memory. Qassem Soleimani, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps commander spearheading the war effort in Syria and Iraq, was increasingly presented as a latter-day Cyrus the Great. The regime claimed that it had to fight the Islamic State in Syria and Iraq lest Iran be forced to defend itself at home, and the idea even gained currency among many secular, middle-class Iranians. Meanwhile, some regime figures, such as former President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, tried to present an idea of “Iranian Islam” that was both pure and consistent with a nationalistic vision.

But as the uprising underway now suggests, that project has utterly failed. No amount of propaganda and revisionism could mask the regime’s constitutional hostility to talk of nationalism and nationhood. Nor could it mollify Iranians who saw their national wealth squandered on adventures in Arab lands that didn’t concern them; “Gaza” was an abstraction to the vast majority. Nor, finally, could this regime-led nationalist push uplift Iranians, whose daily lives were marked by poverty, repression, and isolation from the rest of the world.

The current uprising, then, poses a far more potent threat to mullah power than its previous iterations, because nationalism is a far more potent force than liberal-democratic aspiration. If enough Iranians come to view their regime as an obstacle to national greatness, the Islamic Republic’s days will be over–an outcome that is squarely in the U.S. national-security interest.

The new Iran that could emerge from such an uprising may not be a liberal state, as the West understands the concept. But its calculations about the country’s place in the region and the world are far more likely to be driven by normal, nation-state priorities. The people who are making the revolution, after all, are tired of serving someone else’s messianic cause...
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Kelly Rohrbach Invites You to Explore (VIDEO)

Explore? Well, who could resist?

At Sports Illustrated Swimsuit:



Monday, January 1, 2018

Trump's Sneakily Successful First Year

From Rachel Alexander, at Town Hall:


While the left complained nonstop about Trump’s tweeting and boisterous language, Trump buckled down and accomplished an incredible amount during his first year as president. The Washington Examiner counted an impressive 81 major achievements and another 100 minor achievements. Some of the largest include substantial tax cuts, increasing U.S. energy production and getting Neil Gorsuch confirmed to the Supreme Court. Other notable accomplishments include appointing more judges to the federal appellate courts than any other president during their first year and reducing illegal immigration. U.S. Customs and Border Protection reports a 23 percent decline over the previous fiscal year.

The left is excitedly churning out articles gloating about a handful of items Trump was unable to accomplish, such as repealing Obamacare and getting Congressional funding for a border wall between the U.S. and Mexico. One Green Party candidate actually said, “Trump is a failure his first year.” These armchair critics conveniently ignore Trump’s long list of accomplishments – as if they don’t exist. Some even claim that the economy isn’t doing any better. But GDP has increased above 3 percent and 1.7 new jobs have been created, reducing unemployment to 4.1 percent. 

The left can claim all it wants that Trump has had a bad year, but people see the results and feel them in their pocketbooks. Trump may not be very likable in this ultra-politically correct era, but he doesn’t have to be likable to get things done. Three of our greatest presidents have been characterized as having only average charisma: George Washington, Thomas Jefferson and John Adams. James Madison was described as “noticeably below average.”

Call Trump names but it’s not going to change anything. Most Americans are probably sick of the media blasting Trump constantly. Only five percent of the media’s coverage of Trump is positive, three times more negative than for President Obama. Maybe this explains why Trump’s approval rating at the end of his first year in office is almost the same as Obama’s was at the end of his first year. Rasmussen Reports found that Trump has 46 percent approval and 53 percent disapproval among likely voters; Obama had 47 percent approval and 52 percent disapproval. Americans see through the media spin and find it unfair.

No reasonable person believes that Trump is an “idiot” or whatever other choice words the left uses to describe Trump’s intelligence. He wouldn’t be where he is now, accomplishing a vast amount his first year in office, if he was really stupid. When the left can’t think of a substantive argument, they resort to 4th-grade name calling. Since they can’t refute his presidential success, they ridicule his personality. But Trump’s crude style may be a product of the left. He was a Democrat from 2001 to 2009. He produced and hosted The Apprentice, a reality TV show, from 2003 to 2015. He was enmeshed in the crudeness of Hollywood at the peak of his Democratic affiliation. The left dominates Hollywood, which is known for its lack of moral values. So it’s a little hypocritical for the left to attack Trump for vulgarity now. Trump’s comment he made about inappropriately grabbing women? He said that during a 2005 interview – after he’d been a Democrat for four years.

No matter how much the left calls Trump names, they can’t hide the fact he’s accomplished an incredible amount this past year. Once they wise up, they’re going to start seriously looking into removing him from office, whether by impeachment or the 25th Amendment. This means they are going to double down on their efforts to taint him criminally. Since they can’t beat him fair and square, they will try and take him out illegitimately through bogus accusations.
More.

Actually, it's not even sneaky. The economy is surging, and economists expect even bigger gains in 2018.

Yep, Trump's actually making America great again.


Timothy B. Tyson, The Blood of Emmett Till

At Amazon, Timothy B. Tyson, The Blood of Emmett Till.



Rita Ora on Instagram

At Drunken Stepfather, "RITA ORA NUDE ON INSTAGRAM OF THE DAY."

(Ms. Rita's hot. Here's a flashback, "Rita Ora for 'Lui' Magazine.")

Now Only 5 Free Articles Per Month at NYTimes.com

Bah!

They think I'm paying for their content? They're freakin' crazy, lol.

(Well, actually, I do pick up a hard copy New York Times once in a while, and I enjoy it. I just don't like paying for stuff online.)

At Bloomberg, "N.Y. Times Scales Back Free Articles to Get More Subscribers":
The New York Times, seeking to amass more paid subscriptions in an era of non-stop, must-read headlines, is halving the number of articles available for free each month.

Starting Friday, most non-subscribers will only be able to read five articles rather than 10 before they’re asked to start paying. It’s the first change to the paywall in five years. A basic Times subscription, with unlimited access to the website and all news apps, is $15 every four weeks.

Scoops on the Trump administration’s scandals and sexual-harassment allegations in Hollywood have already contributed to a surge in Times subscriptions, which jumped 60 percent in September from a year earlier to 2.5 million. With demand for journalism “at an all-time high,” the Times decided this was the right moment to experiment with giving away less online content for free, said Meredith Kopit Levien, New York Times Co.’s executive vice president and chief operating officer.

“It’s a very hot news cycle,” Levien said. “We think it’s as good conditions as any to demonstrate to people that high-quality journalism is something to be paid for.”

As Facebook and Google capture a growing share of the online advertising market, publishers from the New York Times to Conde Nast are trying to shift their digital businesses from selling ads to persuading readers to pay for their journalism.

Trump Impact

Fueled in part by demand for news about President Donald Trump, the Times’ subscription business has thrived in the past year. The Times added 154,000 digital-only subscriptions last quarter, a 14 percent increase in new customers from a year earlier, though many signed up through promotional deals and may leave when regular rates kick in.

The subscriber boost has led to a surge in Times Co. shares, which are up 41 percent this year. The stock slipped 1.7 percent to $18.48 as of 9:55 a.m. in New York trading.

But enticing casual readers to open their wallets raises a tricky question: Just how many free articles do you let them sample before requiring them to sign up?

The decision comes with trade-offs. By reducing the number of free articles, the Times will likely see a drop in traffic at the website, which could hurt ad revenue.

Levien said that tightening the Times’ paywall would have a “modest impact” on its digital advertising business, which increased 11 percent last quarter from a year earlier. The increase failed to offset the continued decline in print ad sales, which fell 20 percent...
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Izabel Goulart Strips Down for Beach Outing in Her Native Brazil

At London's Daily Mail, "Model Izabel Goulart strips down to bikini for beach outing in her native Brazil with boyfriend Kevin Trapp."

Emily Ratajkowski and Demi Lovato New Year's Eve

At London's Daily Mail, "Busting into the New Year! Emily Ratajkowski and Demi Lovato flaunt cleavage for their NYE Instagram posts."


Happy New Year!

With Lucy Pinder:


Karan Mahajan, The Association of Small Bombs

*BUMPED.*

At Amazon, Karan Mahajan, The Association of Small Bombs: A Novel.



Jennifer Delacruz's New Year's Day Weather

I'm not going out much today, I don't think. I might make a bagel run in a bit, but that's it. No matter. It's a nice day for watching football. No worries.

Here's the lovely Ms. Jennifer:



Cami Morrone by LOVE Magazine (VIDEO)

Watch:



Lorde Slammed as a 'Bigot in Washington Post Pro-Israel Advertisement

It's Rabbi Shmuley Boteach, who's been posting all the news coverage of his ad attacking Lorde, on Twitter.

Actually, I love this, heh.

At the Guardian U.K, via Memeorandum, "Lorde called a bigot in Washington Post ad over cancelled Israel concert."



Bookstore Chains Final Shakeout

The night before Christmas Eve I went over to Barnes and Noble in Tustin to pick up a couple of Christmas presents for my wife and oldest son.

I took the car for a car wash before heading over to the store, so I got to Barnes about five minutes past 10:00pm (thinking they'd be open). Four women sales associates were standing by the Nook sales display, looking rather angry, actually. I thought they were getting ready to do a hard sale on one of those Nook readers and I was already shaking my head "no." But then I realized they were guarding the store. They were ready for people to be angry as they announced, in unison, "We're closed!" I'm like, "What huh?" I said to the main lady, who was like an assistant manager or something, "I thought you closed at 11:00pm?" And she just shook her head no. I asked "What time do you open tomorrow?" and she said 9:00am, as I exited the store with a sort of weird chagrin. I looked online later and found this was a corporate policy change, as all the local Barnes stores were closing now at 10:00pm. It just seemed weird, especially the military front these ladies had set up by the door. Maybe they should have just locked the door and put a "We're closed" sign in the window.

In any case, I guess this is part of a trend. Barnes and Noble has been losing money year over year, and corporate policy is to refocus sales orientation to basic items, like books (duh), rather than all the knickknacks and fluff, like toys, calendars, trinkets, coffee mugs, and stupid stuff.

A couple of years ago the local Costa Mesa Barnes and Noble closed down. I met Mitt Romney there, so it felt bittersweet. But I expect more of the local stores to close in the years ahead. I frankly don't shop there much, except to buy a magazine once in a while, or a cup of coffee. Their prices are astronomical. I can buy books at Amazon for almost half price, and of course I go to the local Friends of the Library book sales, where you can find bestsellers for a buck or two.

But check out the New York Times, "Bookstore Chains, Long in Decline, Are Undergoing a Final Shakeout":


APPLETON, Wis. — This fall, at a moment when retailers traditionally look forward to reaping holiday profits, the owner of the fourth-largest bookstore chain in the country surrendered to the forces of e-commerce.

Book World, founded in 1976, sold hardcovers, paperbacks and sometimes tobacco in malls, downtowns and vacation areas across the Upper Midwest. It had endured recessions, the expansion of superstores like Borders and Barnes & Noble, and then the rise of Amazon. But the 45-store chain could not survive the shifting nature of shopping itself, and so announced its liquidation.

“Sales in our mall stores are down this year from 30 to 60 percent,” said Bill Streur, Book World’s owner. “The internet is killing retail. Bookstores are just the first to go.”

As e-commerce becomes more deeply embedded in the fabric of daily life, including for the first time in rural areas, bookstores are undergoing a final shakeout. Family Christian Stores, which had 240 stores that sold books and other religious merchandise, closed this year, not long after Hastings Entertainment, a retailer of books, music and video games with 123 stores, declared bankruptcy and then shut down.

“Books aren’t going away, but bookstores are,” said Matthew Duket, a Book World sales associate waiting for customers in the West Bend, Wis., store.

Here is one way to measure the upheaval in bookselling: Replacing Book World as the fourth-largest chain, Publishers Weekly says, will be a company that had no physical presence a few years ago. That would be Amazon, which having conquered the virtual world has opened or announced 15 bookshops, including at the Time Warner Center in Manhattan.

In a famous passage in Ernest Hemingway’s “The Sun Also Rises,” a novel that Book World used to sell, a character is asked how he went bust. “Two ways,” he answers. “Gradually and then suddenly.”

That more or less mirrors what happened to Book World and other bookstore chains.

A few years ago, e-books were widely assumed to be driving the physical book — and the physical bookstore — to extinction. Instead, e-book sales leveled off, and the physical book has retained much of its appeal.

But readers are increasingly ordering those books online, getting them delivered with their clothes and peanut butter and diapers. Bookstore sales were $684 million in October, the Census Bureau said this month, off 4.6 percent from a year earlier and down 39 percent from a decade ago.

“There aren’t many businesses that can survive a 20 to 30 percent drop,” said Mr. Streur, 68. “Closing was the last thing in the world I wanted. But reality sets in.”

It was an abrupt decision that surprised even his 300 full- and part-time employees; a few said that at least some of the stores — especially those that catered to tourists — seemed to be holding their own. Book World had opened a store in Jefferson City, Mo., just a few weeks before.

But a search for buyers for the chain or even some of the stores came up short. The chain swung from a profit in 2014 to break-even in 2015 to a loss in 2016, although Mr. Streur declined to provide numbers.

“There was nobody interested in buying us,” he said...
Still more.

The Trump Rally

The stock market rally. It's great!


Death by SWATting

At the Other McCain, "Death by SWATting: A Former Target’s Thoughts About a Deadly ‘Prank’."


Californians Can Now Buy Recreational Marijuana (VIDEO)

It was pretty much "recreational" before this anyway, but it least the change in the laws bring the "medical marijuana" fiction to an end.

At LAT, "A 'monumental moment' for fully legal marijuana in California":

Will Senn has been waiting his whole life for this. Californians can now go to the store and buy marijuana, and his shop is opening its doors at 7 a.m. on New Year's Day.

Senn's Urbn Leaf in San Diego was among the first to get a state-issued license to sell pot for medical and recreational uses. He hired 15 more workers to accommodate what he expects to be a crush of new customers to flood into his shop, which had previously specialized in cannabis for medicinal purposes.

"This is what a lot of activists in the industry have been working for since the 1990s when Dennis Peron opened his first marijuana shop for AIDS patients in San Francisco," said Senn, 32. "It's a monumental moment and we are ecstatic to be a part of it."

The KindPeoples Collective in Santa Cruz plans to give out T-shirts to the first 420 people who show up to buy weed Monday.

CEO Khalil Moutawakkil, 33, said the legalization of marijuana for recreational use is a major change that has been too long in coming. "This is essentially going to eliminate prohibition on the plant of the last 400 years and return the plant back to the people," he said.

Still, don't expect pot shops on every corner. In recent weeks, hundreds of businesses have applied for temporary licenses to engage in the marijuana business, but industry officials expect a slow rollout as most cities in California have not yet given their approval, a prerequisite to getting a state license. As of Friday, 49 retail licenses had been issued by the state for businesses to sell recreational pot.

Sales for recreational use are allowed in cities including Los Angeles, West Hollywood, San Francisco, San Diego, Oakland, Santa Cruz and San Jose, but many proposed pot shops in those cities will not have a state license by the start of the year.

The state has not yet issued a retail permit for a store in Los Angeles, which plans to issue local licenses in the coming weeks.
At least 300 other cities, including Riverside, Fresno, Bakersfield, Pasadena and Anaheim, don't allow pot sales for non-medical purposes, according to industry officials.

Voters paved the way for today in November 2016, with Proposition 64 earning 57% approval. The ballot measure made California one of eight states to approve the sale of cannabis for recreational use. Those 21 and older can purchase and possess up to an ounce of marijuana for recreational use and to grow up to six plants in their homes.

Even with greater access, there are still restrictions on when the drug can be used. State regulations prohibit smoking marijuana in many public places, including restaurants and theaters, where cigarettes are barred. And new laws make explicit you can't toke and drive.
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Congressional Republicans Face Tough Electoral Prospects for Midterms 2018

As much as I want to disagree with this analysis, I can't: The president's party normally loses seats in midterm election's, and this year we've got polarizing President Trump in the Oval Office. The GOP has a lot of favorable variables, the strong economy and partisan redistricting, for example, but the cultural environment and constant outrage and ideological hatred looks to be the key influence on voting. Trump's a totem for all that good or bad in politics, depending on your perspective.

Good thing we got tax reform. We need to finish up the MAGA agenda this year, especially on immigration,  because once the Dems take back one or both chambers of Congress in 2019, all bets are off.

At LAT, "As 2017 ends, Republicans struggle to counter a Democratic wave":


The clock is ticking on the Republican majority in Congress: The GOP has just over 10 months to avoid a rout in 2018.

Republicans could do it. They have time and several important factors on their side: a good economy, low crime rates, achievements of significance to the party's followers.

Nevertheless, as 2017 closes, almost all signs point toward big Democratic gains next year, largely driven by President Trump's widespread unpopularity. And some of the pugnacious instincts that helped the president win election a year ago may now be worsening his party's dilemma.

Midterm elections "are a referendum on the party in power," notes Sean Trende, political analyst for the Real Clear Politics website. During the Obama years, Trende correctly forecast that Democrats had underestimated the potential of a surge of conservative white Americans voting Republican. Now, he says, Republicans are making a mistake in assuming that turnout will once again favor them in an off-year election.

Trump has "terrible numbers," Democrats have a large advantage in polls, and "it all adds up to a really rough midterm" for the GOP, Trende says.

The trouble for Republicans comes despite some of the best economic conditions in years, which normally would boost the party in power. Unfortunately for Republican candidates, a majority of Americans continues to believe the country is headed in the wrong direction, despite the good economic news.

Much of that discontent appears to center on one person — the president.

Throughout the year, opposition to Trump has generated energy among Democrats. But something new has been added to the mix in recent months, said Joe Trippi, the veteran Democratic consultant who served as media strategist for Doug Jones' upset Senate election this month in Alabama.

"The sense of chaos, the constant fight, fight, fight and alarm bells going off all the time" has deeply troubled voters, including many who backed Trump last year, Trippi said. "There's this sense of being on edge," which Alabamians talked about frequently, Trippi said. "That's what they don't want anymore."

Alabama's election had unique aspects, notably the flaws of the Republican candidate, Roy Moore. But that same voter anxiety has come up repeatedly in focus groups around the country.

If a year of Trump has put voters in the mood for less confrontation, that poses a big challenge for Republicans.

"I don't know how you stop Donald Trump from putting people on edge," Trippi said. "That's what he does."

Indeed, even if conflict weren't so deeply ingrained in Trump's personality, political calculation might lead him to continue seeking out battles at every turn. Voters as a whole may not like it, but to Trump's most fervent supporters, his willingness to fight forms a major part of his draw. His former strategist, Stephen K. Bannon, threatens to add to the political tension by backing challengers to several Republican incumbents.

Trump's hard-core supporters remain loyal and probably always will. But for all the attention they get from the White House — and often from the news media — Trump's fervent backers make up only about one-fifth of the public and are outnumbered about 2 to 1 by fervent opponents.

Indeed, the gap between the share of Americans who say they "strongly disapprove" of Trump and those who "strongly approve" has grown significantly this year. In polls by SurveyMonkey, for example, the margin now stands at 26 percentage points, up from 16 points at the start of the year.

Those numbers form just one of several indicators of problems for Republicans. The most basic comes from the so-called generic ballot — a question polls have used for decades that asks which party's candidate a person plans to vote for in the next election. It has long proven among the most reliable forecasting tools in American politics.

For most of the fall, Democrats showed a healthy lead on that question — enough to suggest the midterms would be competitive. This month, the forecast took an abrupt jump in one nonpartisan survey after another — to 13 points in a poll from Marist College, 15 in Quinnipiac University's poll, 15 from a Monmouth University survey and 18 points, a previously unheard-of level, in a poll for CNN.

Exactly why the numbers for the GOP worsened is unknown, although the timing suggests the unpopularity of the Republican tax bill played a role. What is knowable is that even discounting the biggest numbers, the Democrats' lead on the generic ballot surpasses that of any party out of power in decades.

The average size of the Democratic advantage forecasts that if the election were held now, they would gain in the neighborhood of 40 seats in the House — considerably more than the 24 they would need for a majority.

For those who don't trust polls, actual election results point the same way. Some of the contests have gotten wide attention, including the Alabama Senate race and the Virginia election in November, in which Democrats won the governorship and all but wiped out a huge Republican majority in the lower house of the Legislature.

Other, less heralded contests have shown the same pattern of high Democratic turnout, depressed Republican voting and double-digit shifts in partisan outcomes, particularly in suburban areas where Trump fares worse than a typical Republican.