McCain is Clear GOP Frontrunner, Poll Shows

Senator John McCain got a big bump in national public opinion following his New Hampshire comeback, according to a new survey from CNN/Opinion Research:

John McCain's victory in Tuesday's New Hampshire primary appears to be paying off.

Sen. John McCain wins 34 percent of registered Republicans in a CNN/Opinion Research Corp. poll.

The senator from Arizona is the front-runner in the battle for the Republican presidential nomination, according to the first national poll taken after the New Hampshire primary.

McCain has the support of 34 percent of registered Republicans in a CNN/Opinion Research Corp. survey out Friday. That's a 21-point jump from the last CNN/Opinion Research poll, taken in December, well before the Iowa caucuses and New Hampshire primary earlier this month.

Former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee, who won the Iowa Republican caucuses, is in second place in the new survey, with 21 percent of those registered Republicans polled supporting him for the GOP nomination.

Rudy Giuliani follows with 18 percent, a drop of six points from the December poll, when the former New York City mayor was the front-runner.

"Only McCain gained support among Republicans nationally. McCain's now the clear Republican front-runner," said Bill Schneider, CNN senior political analyst.

Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney is in fourth place, with the backing of 14 percent of registered Republicans, with former Sen. Fred Thompson of Tennessee at 6 percent, Rep. Ron Paul of Texas at 5 percent, and Rep. Duncan Hunter of California at 1 percent.

The CNN poll is based on a small sample, and is thus prone to large statistical error.

Still, via Captain Ed, a new SurveyUSA poll in Florida has McCain also pulling ahead of Rudy Giuliani by 8 percentage points.

The new data - nationally and out of Florida - come in tandem with McCain's lead over Mitt Romney in next Tuesday's battleground Michigan primary (see my analysis of the Michigan race here).

The momentum has shifted dramatically, scrambling the entire GOP field. The true test of McCain's frontrunner assets will come in Tuesday's South Carolina primary. Yet considering how volatile the GOP field remains, as well as the direction of the media bump, a McCain loss in any of the upcoming contests is not likely to knock the Arizona Senator out of contention.

February 5 awaits.

Photo Credit: New York Times; see also Memeorandum.