McCain Leads in South Carolina

A new FOX News/Opinion Dynamics poll has Senator John McCain leading the GOP pack in the crucial South Carolina primary vote:

A new FOX News South Carolina Republican presidential primary poll shows McCain is now the front-runner with 25 percent, followed by Iowa caucus winner Huckabee at 18 percent and Romney at 17 percent. The results for all three top candidates are within the survey’s margin of sampling error.

Fred Thompson, who is from the neighboring state of Tennessee, captures the support of 9 percent, while Rudy Giuliani and Ron Paul both receive 5 percent.

Read the whole thing.

The FOX poll results are based on a small sample, with a large margin of error (plus or minus 4 percentage points). The numbers are significant nevertheless, confirming the normal conventional wisdom of an expected boost in the polls coming out of McCain's comeback win in New Hampshire.

This morning's Los Angeles Times notes that South Carolina's where it all fell apart for McCain in 2000, so a win in the Palmetto State could really prove McCain's Lazarus touch:

In his maverick 2000 presidential bid, South Carolina was McCain's Waterloo, where he was crushed by the state establishment's favorite, George W. Bush.

The senator from Arizona now returns to that blood-soaked political battlefield hoping to prove his appeal to the conservative party regulars he needs to keep his resurgent campaign on track for the long haul.

But South Carolina remains littered with political land mines for McCain. There are more evangelical conservatives here than in New Hampshire, and they view him with suspicion. And no one has forgotten the 2000 battle, which featured scathing personal attacks from both sides.

"There's some lingering resentment that sticks in your mouth," said David Woodard, a pollster at Clemson University who supported Bush.

McCain kicked off the new phase of his campaign Wednesday in economically troubled Michigan, a state he won in 2000.

GOP primary rules in Michigan allow independents to vote. That could make it possible for him to outpoll former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney -- whose father was a popular GOP governor there -- by assembling the same coalition of independents and Republicans that brought him victory in New Hampshire.

But in South Carolina, an all-Republican primary will test McCain's ability to compete with more-conservative candidates like former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee, who has been leading in recent polls; Fred Thompson, the former Tennessee senator who is banking heavily on a strong showing in the state; and Romney, who came in second in New Hampshire.

Republican candidates fanned out across the post-New Hampshire political map Wednesday. But all of the major candidates will converge in Myrtle Beach, S.C., tonight for a debate to be broadcast by Fox News (at 6 p.m. PST).

McCain plans to remain in the state through the weekend. He is inaugurating a very different campaign than the one he conducted here in 2000, underscoring changes in his style, and in the country, in the last eight years.

The article notes that McCain has formed a high-power rapid-reaction organization, ready to provide instantaneous rebuttals to potential oppostion attacks and slurs:

South Carolina's 2000 primary was a turning point for McCain, coming on the heels of a surprising victory over Bush in New Hampshire. Bush fought back hard. The state was flooded with negative ads and mailings and phone-jamming calls from both campaigns. The most personal slam -- coming from anonymous sources -- was a rumor that McCain had fathered a black child. He and his wife have an adopted dark-skinned daughter from Bangladesh.

"We were literally stunned the last time by some of that," McCain said early this week, reflecting on the ferocity of the campaign. "To think that people would be making phone calls to say that -- did you know that we have a black baby? -- I mean, that was beyond belief."

This time McCain's campaign has formed a "truth squad" to respond to any attacks on the candidate. Addressing another perceived shortcoming, McCain worked hard to build the institutional support he lacked in 2000, heavily courting the top party leaders and former Bush fundraisers.

It remains to be seen how nasty things get this year, but we've still got a weekend of full campaigning.

USA Today reports that Fred Thompson has staked his presidential comeback on a strong South Carolina showing:

Saying, "This is where I make my stand," Fred Thompson launched a 10-day bus tour from here Tuesday morning to salvage his Republican presidential primary campaign.
"I'm staking an awful lot on South Carolina," the former Tennessee senator told The Greenville News.

Thompson's arrival signaled the start of the stretch run to Jan. 19's GOP primary. At least six candidates have released schedules showing campaign events this week before Thursday night's nationally televised Republican debate from Myrtle Beach....
Asked what he needed here in the Jan. 19 primary after a third-place finish in the Iowa caucuses and flagging in New Hampshire, Thompson said: "It might be first place." He declined to speculate further.

While Mitt Romney has blown off South Carolina - pulling advertisements from the state to focus on Michigan - Mike Huckabee's been considered a likely South Carolina winner, given the large bloc of conservative evangelicals there.

The Huckabee campaign is looking to use the Palmetto State as a "firewall" against further damage from McCain's New Hampshire momentum. Running ads in South Carolina for weeks, Huckabee's forces see McCain vulnerable on immigration, and have hammered the issue.

That strategy might help. Immigration is expected to be the hot topic at tonight's Republican debate in Myrtle Beach (although a large plurality of South Carolina voters favor a path to legalization for undocumented aliens, perhaps blunting the immigration issue against McCain).

A lot can happen over the next few days, but the FOX poll numbers indicate how dramatic McCain's turnaround has become.

Photo Credit: FOX News

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UPDATE: Sister Toldjah, citing additional polling figures supporting McCain's lead in South Carolina, asks: "If it comes down to it …and McCain gets the nomination, would you support him?"