War is Taking Back Seat on Campaign Trail

Candidates will be making their last pitches today in Iowa, before caucus-goers weigh-in with their picks for the major-party nominees.

Yet it turns out that the war in Iraq has receded in importance for many voters, as domestic issues are seeing greater salience in the electorate. The New York Times has the story:

The Democratic and Republican presidential candidates are navigating a far different set of issues as they approach the Iowa caucuses on Thursday than when they first started campaigning here a year ago, and that is likely to change even more as the campaigns move to New Hampshire and across the country.

Even though polls show that Iowa Democrats still consider the war in Iraq the top issue facing the country, the war is becoming a less defining issue among Democrats nationally, and it has moved to the back of the stage in the rush of campaign rallies, town hall meetings and speeches that are bringing the caucus competition to an end. Instead, candidates are being asked about, and are increasingly talking about, the mortgage crisis, rising gas costs, health care, immigration, the environment and taxes.

The shift suggests that economic anxiety may be at least matching national security as a factor driving the 2008 presidential contest as the voting begins.

The campaigns are moving to recalibrate what they are saying amid signs of this changing backdrop; gone are the days when debates and television advertisements were filled with references to Iraq.

Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton of New York recently produced a television advertisement that attacked the Bush administration for failing to deal with “America’s housing crisis.” Mitt Romney, the Massachusetts Republican, has begun talking about expanding health care coverage, an issue of particular concern in New Hampshire.

“People say that health care is a Democratic issue,” he said. “Baloney.”

John Edwards of North Carolina has a ready answer when asked about immigration at rallies here — a subject that rarely if ever came up at Democratic gatherings a year ago. He drew cheers at a New Year’s Day rally in Ames when he said that while he would support a path to citizenship for illegal immigrants, he would insist that none could become naturalized “until they learned to speak English.”

Part of the shift appears to stem from the reduction in violence in Iraq after President Bush’s decision to send more troops there last year. Mrs. Clinton, who once faced intense opposition from her party’s left over her vote to authorize the war, now is rarely pressed on it, though Democrats say it continues be a drag on her in this state. Senator John McCain, a strong proponent of increased troop levels, is off of the defensive and now positions himself as having been prescient about what would work to quell the violence.

Frankly, it's hard to be more antiseptic analytically than this. The war will remain a key issue troughout the year, and it's likely that success on the ground in Iraq threw the Democrats off of their game, since we saw troop withdrawals as the party's main priority in 2007.

John McCain deserves his rocket boost back to the front of the pack, for he's been consistent in his support for the war, and his strategic theory - announced before the troop surge - has been vindicated by events. (McCain's even thinking ahead, suggesting he's not against the idea of serving only one term as president.)

Rudy Giuliani's seen the political results from the change in Iraq, and he's hoping to create a similar political dynamic with his focus on a troop build-up for Afghanistan.

Meanwhile, Mitt Romney's just trying to hang in the race, and Fred Thomspon's already contemplating his exit, which may come as early as tonight if he fares badly in today's caucuses.