On the eve of tomorrow's near-national contest for each party's presidential nominee, Democrat Hillary Clinton has lost much of her longtime polling lead over Barack Obama both nationally and in grand prize California, while Republican John McCain has surged ahead for a potentially decisive edge.
Tomorrow's votes could crown Sen. McCain, the Arizona senator, his party's presumptive nominee. The Democrats' battle more likely will grind on, since their party rules award convention delegates proportionate to candidates' votes in each state rather than giving them all to the winner.
Sen. Obama, of Illinois, and Sen. Clinton, of New York, could battle to a draw. But many Democratic activists say Sen. Obama stands to gain momentum, given his advantage in states voting after tomorrow, his campaign's financial strength and his ability to withstand the Clinton machine. That could matter to the party's "super delegates" -- uncommitted Democratic party leaders in each state who aren't up for grabs in the nomination contests but who could ultimately help determine the winner.
Sen. McCain now has a 2-to-1 lead nationally over chief rival Mitt Romney, according to new polls from Gallup, the Pew Research Center and the Washington Post-ABC News. On the Democratic side, they show Sen. Obama has shaved Sen. Clinton's once-formidable national advantage to single digits.Such polls are hardly predictive, as shown last month when no major surveys foresaw Sen. Clinton's victory in New Hampshire's primary. Then, as now, state and national polls show a large number of undecided voters in both parties, making predictions dicey.
Last month, when the candidates were campaigning in one state at a time, national polls were meaningless for anticipating what voters in New Hampshire or Iowa thought. But with nearly half the states voting tomorrow, national polls can provide a snapshot of the electorate.
The number, size and coast-to-coast range of states voting on "Super Tuesday" makes tomorrow unprecedented in the history of the presidential-nominating process. Primaries or caucuses will be held in 24 states, compared with 10 states on the biggest voting day in 2004. Both parties have votes in 19 states, while Democrats caucus in three more and Republicans in two. Just over half of Democrats' 3,253 pledged delegates are at stake, and 41% of Republicans' 2,380 total.
The battlefield is bigger than it has been for the November general election in recent decades. The general-election campaigns have come down to a dozen or so competitive battleground states, since the rest tend to favor one party or the other. In tomorrow's intra-party contests, every state counts as the major candidates seek more delegates. With just days to campaign, and the cost of advertising, the candidates' stamina and campaign budgets are being tested.
"There's never been anything like it," says Democratic pollster Geoff Garin, who hasn't committed to either candidate. "And there's the sheer economics of it, of how campaigns approach their deployment."
The pileup is a consequence of other states' frustration with the influence of the geographically balanced foursome -- Iowa and New Hampshire, and, more recently, South Carolina and Nevada -- whose early-voting status is blessed by party rules. The others over the past year rushed to reschedule their primaries and caucuses on Feb. 5, the earliest date that both parties allow. But the crush blunted the influence sought by the states, which hoped to get candidates to pay attention to their particular issues in return for votes.
California is the exception. Its huge delegate total -- 370 for Democrats, or about 18% of the number of delegates needed to win the nomination, and 173 for Republicans, or just under 15% -- makes the Golden State truly golden in the nominating race for the first time in three decades.
The Field Poll, a prominent California poll, yesterday had Sen. Clinton, who formerly had a huge lead, in a 36%-to-34% statistical dead heat with Sen. Obama. Sen. McCain has an eight-point edge over his next closest competitor, Mr. Romney, the former Massachusetts governor. Significantly, the poll has Sen. McCain statistically tied with Sen. Clinton in a hypothetical matchup, suggesting Democrats' lock on the state and its 55 electoral votes -- critical to their hopes for the White House -- could be picked. Sen. Obama bests Sen. McCain in a hypothetical face-off by seven percentage points.
Since tomorrow's state contests are party affairs, the candidates are stumping in places their party nominees rarely do for general elections. For example, Sen. McCain ended yesterday in heavily Democratic Massachusetts -- showing strength in former Gov. Romney's home state -- while Sen. Obama Saturday drew an estimated 13,000 to a rally in overwhelmingly Republican Idaho.
In a year in which Democrats have enthusiasm on their side against a Republican Party demoralized by an unpopular president and the war in Iraq, the Obama campaign argues that his appeal to new voters among the young, minorities and independents could put states in play for Democrats that rarely are, including Southern states such as Georgia and Alabama where black voters are a significant share of the electorate. The Clinton campaign counters that she is drawing new female voters.
The vastness of the playing field has spawned new tactics. Sen. Clinton tonight hosts a national "town hall" discussion to be broadcast on the Internet and cable TV. Sen. Obama, exploiting his huge financial edge, has spent $11 million on 17 Super Tuesday states and six more states voting in coming weeks, including $250,000 for last night's Super Bowl, according to the campaign. The Republicans are too financially strapped to run many national ads, even the resurgent Sen. McCain; Mr. Romney is digging deeper into his personal wealth.
Sens. Clinton and Obama remain from what began as a nine-person Democratic race. Four of the original 10 Republicans survive, but Sen. McCain's chief rival is Mr. Romney. Former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee has been siphoning conservatives' votes from Mr. Romney. Texas Rep. Ron Paul, the antiwar libertarian, has a small following, though Republicans say he could win tomorrow's caucuses in Alaska.
The article also notes that things are more settled on the Republican side. Some GOP insiders doubt Romney can stem the McCain campaign's momentum.
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