Data Suggest Economic Recession

The new media consensus is that the U.S. economy has moved into recession. Here's the Wall Street Journal:

U.S. employers shed 63,000 jobs last month, the most in five years, reinforcing a widening view that the U.S. is falling into recession. Among economists and politicians, the debate is shifting to how deep the downturn will be and how to ease it.

The jobs dropoff came after the nation lost 22,000 jobs in January, the Labor Department said. In the past, such back-to-back monthly employment declines have occurred only around recessions.

U.S. employers shed 63,000 jobs last month, the most in five years, reinforcing a widening view that the U.S. is falling into recession. Among economists and politicians, the debate is shifting to how deep the downturn will be and how to ease it.

The jobs dropoff came after the nation lost 22,000 jobs in January, the Labor Department said. In the past, such back-to-back monthly employment declines have occurred only around recessions....

Easing the worries slightly, the Federal Reserve said it is stepping up efforts to restore credit markets to health by injecting cash into money markets and making larger direct loans to banks.

The Fed's actions were an effort to bring down interest rates banks charge to one another and stabilize the market for mortgage-backed securities, whose falling prices have lowered the value of the collateral posted by firms that hold large quantities of them, such as Thornburg and Carlyle [one of the nation’s largest mortgage lenders, which warned yesterday of possible collapse].

The New York Times has also got some beefy coverage on the economy's presumed downturn, "Sharp Drop in Jobs Adds to Grim Economic Picture, " and "Seeing an End to the Good Times (Such as They Were)."

Actually, just last weekend I let out a few musing on the economy and housing market ("Housing Woes: Borrowers Abandoning Mortgages Amid Falling Market"), and I mentioned how I noticed one of the first true signs of a recession in the "store closing" sign that went up on the big Wickes furniture storefront down the freeway from my home.

But frankly, things just don't feel that recession-like to me. SoCal's usually behind the market in any case, but things are still pretty robust in my area.

My wife's in retail management and she went on the job market a week or so back and was snapped up for a new position at the first big-box store to which she applied. What amazed me about this - after talking to my wife - is how the recruiters were saying they couldn't find enough highly-qualified top-end managers!

Sure, I see all the news stories on cable and Good Morning America, and I see the videos of all these people out-of-work, filling out applications, and saying this is the worst market they've ever seen.

Geez, you'd think we were back in the Dust Bowl or something.

Still, even voices of economic optimism are weighing the various statements on recessionary trends, so we'll have to keep our eyes peeled for more of the telltale indicators of a genuine downturn.

See more analysis at Memeorandum.