Basra Marks Big Shift in Iraq Progress

Events in Basra these last few weeks have emerged as some of the most significant signs of Iraq's political development in the last year, particularly with the exertion of state authority by the government of Nouri al Maliki.

The most recent news of progress out of Iraq deals with the recent cease-fire between the government and renegade Shiite forces.

Never one to look on the bright side, here's Cernig at Newshoggers:

The outlook, as a wrote yesterday, is that the new truce is not a "milestone towards Iraq's bright, free future" but rather a milestone on a continuing cycle of violence and political manouvering. Sadr's movement has returned to ist [sic] roots and again become an insurgency with a political wing - not unlike Hezboullah or the Sinn Fein/IRA double act - and an insurgency wins simply by surviving.

Actually, insurgencies rarely win, but that doesn't stop those like Newshoggers from backing the terrorists in Iraq to defeat the American "occupation."

Note Captain's Ed's take on things:

American media outlets have been surprisingly quiet about the latest developments. In Basra, they couldn’t wait to proclaim Maliki’s operation a disaster and the battle a Sadr victory. Unfortunately for them, Sadr sued for peace and agreed to dump his own militias in exchange for political crumbs. In Sadr City, where he based his political power, he has done exactly the same, winning only a reprieve for his forces while conceding the entire territory to the central government.

Expect the Basra Narrative to heavily emphasize that Sadr “allowed” forces into Sadr City and the government to re-open its offices in the area, rather than Sadr capitulating the inevitable.

The Captain updates with today's front-page New York Times story, "Drive in Basra by Iraqi Army Makes Gains."

But note Nibras Kazimi's take on recent developments:

Basra had a moment of clarity, illuminating the convergence of several positive trends in Iraq. What’s driving these trends is a sense among regular Iraqis that their state has outlasted its challengers, whether they are Sunni insurgents, organized crime cartels, or hostile regional powers. Basra is “Exhibit A” for those who argue that Iraq’s remaining problems are fixable, that the achievements seen so far are irreversible, and that a sense of patriotic cohesion is salvageable and viable.

Consequently, the events in Basra do not sit well with those who have argued otherwise and staked their careers and credibility to the storyline that Iraq is irredeemable, such as the many journalists and pundits who have been covering Iraq over the last five years.

See more analysis (and some who see Iraq as "irredeemable") at Memeorandum.

Photo Credit: "Trash burns as children play soccer in a field at the northern entrance to Basra. Only a month ago, the city shuddered under deadly clashes between Iraqi troops and Shiite militias," New York Times ("The Quietening of Basra").