Clinton Pledges to Fight On

Why should Hillary Clinton continue her bid for the Democratic presidential nomination?

Many commentators are saying last night was Barack Obama's, and in the absence of an exceedingly dramatic political event, there's no way for Hillary to win without leveraging party rules to shoehorn into the nomination. Indeed, at least one report suggests that Clinton plans to exit the race by June 15.

Yet CNN, the New York Times, USA Today, and the Washington Post are reporting the Clinton's hanging in there.

Here's CNN's report:

Despite an overwhelming defeat in North Carolina and a narrow victory in Indiana, Sen. Hillary Clinton vowed to stay in the race until her party has a nominee.

"I, obviously, am going to work as hard as I can to become that nominee. That is what I've done; that's what I'm continuing to do," she said Wednesday in Shepherdstown, West Virginia.

The focus of the Democratic race now turns to the superdelegates, because they outnumber the remaining pledged delegates.

Neither Sen. Barack Obama nor Clinton is expected to win the 2,025 delegates needed to capture the nomination during the remaining contests. That means the superdelegates -- party and elected officials who are allowed to vote during the national convention -- will probably decide who becomes the nominee.

Hillary can shift the momentum back to her side a big with a win in West Virginia next Tuesday.

But that may not be enough, as Michael Tomasky:

Next week's primary, in West Virginia, will probably be her biggest win yet, even if she never sets foot there. It's a white, blue-collar state with tiny black and "creative class" populations. So she'll get a win there. And she'll win the following Tuesday in Kentucky.

But those states now are hardly the main battleground. The battleground at this point is the hearts and minds of the superdelegates. The key thing to watch over the rest of this week is how many superdelegates declare themselves for Obama (277 uncommitted superdelegates remain). If reports over the last week or two are to be believed - Missouri senator Claire McCaskill, Obama's biggest Senate supporter, saying that most Capitol Hill legislators are already quietly behind Obama and just waiting for the right moment to pull the trigger - then the effect of Tuesday's results might be that they start declaring themselves for him in greater numbers.

Assuming the superdelegates start breaking, Clinton will be reduced to one last option if she chooses to fight: go nuclear on Florida and Michigan. The Democratic party's rules and bylaws committee - a 30-member panel that tilts slightly toward Clinton in sentiment - will meet on May 31 to talk about what to do about the two states.

It does look rough, and that nuclear option's about as controversial as can be.

But Clinton could redouble her appeals to the superdelegates that Barack Obama faces a crisis of electability in the general election. Indeed, Thomas DeFrank argues that Clinton's strength with the white working class remains the only "ugly" reason to stay in the race:

While the case for Hillary Clinton to stay in the race is shakier than ever, one ugly reason for staying in could be found Tuesday amid the ruddy, sun-kissed Hoosiers who cheered her on to victory at the Indianapolis Speedway.

With Clinton posing alongside pioneering Indy speedster Sarah Fisher, there were almost no African-Americans to be seen. Many in the white, working-class crowd were simply not ready to back Barack Obama - for reasons that are disturbing.

"I'm kind of still up in the air between McCain and Hillary," said Jason Jenkins, 32, who cited information from a hoax e-mail as a reason to spurn Obama.

"I'll be honest with you. Barack scares the hell out of me,"he said. "He swore on the Koran."

Obama did manage to pull in many white voters, but still encountered similar sentiments from a man who refused to shake his hand at a diner in Greenwood, Ind.

"I can't stand him," the man said. "He's a Muslim. He's not even pro-American as far as I'm concerned."

Such feelings leave Clinton and the Democratic Party in a tough spot. With the largest number of remaining delegates nowbeing party insiders, they have to decide if Obama can overcome enough of that antipathy - essentially deciding if enough working-class whites will back away from the black candidate, whether because of the false Muslim rumors, the Rev. Jeremiah Wright flap or old-fashioned racism.

"I think that's right," said former Bill Clinton pollster Doug Schoen. "Obama showed that he could put together that coalition in North Carolina. In Indiana, he was less successful."

"He has to convince people that he can win over working-class whites in places like Florida, Ohio and Michigan," Schoen said.

Can Obama win over working class whites?

I don't think he's going to have an easy time of it.

Obama's strength last night was that he consolidated the black vote, especially in North Carolina, and benefited in Indiana from some Hillary fatigue among white women, white Catholics, and union households, groups unlikely to stay solidly in Obama's column over months of campaigning that will bring out further fine points of the Chicago socialist's elitism and poor judgment.

Blacks are the most staunch interest group supporting the Democrats, but being the candidate of black America and the coastal elites in Boston and San Francisco simply recycles the electoral flaws of the Democrats in 2000 and 2004.

John Judis discusses Obama's general election weaknesses in more detail, for example with this note on the racial vote:

As the primaries have proceeded, he has become more dependent on strong, almost unanimous, support from African American and young voters. For instance, he lost the California primary in February, but he still beat Clinton by a whopping 55 to 35 percent among white men. In North Carolina, where the white Democratic electorate is liberal and tolerant (only five percent of the primary electorate voted against Obama because of race, compared to over 11 percent in Pennsylvania and Ohio), Obama could still win only 36 percent of white voters. In the fall, when African Americans will only make up about 23 percent of North Carolina's electorate, he would have to win 38 percent of all whites to carry the state.

Read Judis in full.

These are the talking points Hillary Clinton should be offering as she prepares the case for challenging Obama at the convention. It's a tough argument to make, and the party elite may indeed have quietly lined up behind Obama, wishing to avoid a bitter denouement in Denver, but if Hillary decides to hang on longer, it's the most realistic argument she can make.

See also, Marc Ambinder, "7 Reasons Why Clinton Should Stay In The Race," and CNN, "Superdelegates Await Clinton's Next Move."

Photo Credit: Time