McCain vs. Obama: The Shape of the General Election Matchup

The Los Angeles Times offers a road map to the general election contest between John McCain and Barack Obama:

In many states that President Bush captured in the 2004 election, Barack Obama has swelled the ranks of Democrats by the thousands, drawing record numbers of young people and African Americans to the polls.

But will this enthusiasm -- which propelled his victory Tuesday in the race for the Democratic nomination -- deliver enough of these states to Obama to win the presidency?

That question is on the minds of strategists plotting the Democratic Party's drive to retake the White House. In national polls, Obama runs about even with Republican John McCain, but he cannot win the 270 electoral votes he needs unless he picks up states that Bush won.

McCain, for his part, must hold all of Bush's states, or else carry some new ones to make up for any losses.

"Everybody's top priorities will be those 12 to 15 swing states that were close in 2004," said Charles Black, a senior McCain advisor.

For weeks, Obama and McCain have crossed paths in those states, with a particular emphasis on Florida. When South Dakota and Montana handed Obama the delegates needed to clinch the nomination Tuesday night, he did not celebrate in either state, but in Minnesota -- a state that is crucial for Democrats to hold.

Obama is running in a climate that strongly favors Democrats. Advisors say he is well-placed to expand the map of Democratic states to Colorado and Virginia, a pair of Bush states now more friendly to his party -- and might even add such GOP strongholds as Georgia.

Yet a wholesale recoloring of the nation's red-and-blue electoral map is hard to fathom, strategists and independent analysts say.

Read the whole thing (McCain appears to have bigger challenges).

See also, Gallup's report on early polling demographics for the general election, as well as Protein Wisdom, "Do May-June Polls Mean Anything for November?

Photo Credit: Los Angeles Times