GOP Struggles to Hold the South

I noted yesterday that 2008 may see a "critical election," whereby the recent economic and political trauma creates an electoral crisis reminiscent of the Civil War and the Great Depression, resulting in a Democratic landslide that shakes the nation's political coalitions to their foundations.

It's a dramatic scenario, and not particularly likely, in light of the nature of political dealignment in the U.S. since 1968 (independent voters and split-ticketing have become common and electoral volatility has been characteristic of recent party dynamics, with neither party able to secure a long-term advantage at the national level).

Yet, this morning's Wall Street Journal indicates that for the first time since the 1960s, the GOP ticket is at risk of losing the support of Southern voters: "In Virginia, McCain Struggles To Hold the South for GOP":

Sen. John McCain and Gov. Sarah Palin are scheduled to roll into Virginia on Monday in a bid to stop the Republican ticket's slide in the state and thwart what once was unthinkable: fractures in the "Solid South," the backbone of successful Republican presidential politics for four decades.

Not long ago, Virginia appeared solidly in the McCain camp. Republican strategists knew the race would be tighter there in 2008 than in past years, but were confident enough not to open a standalone state headquarters and spent sparingly on advertising while pouring resources into other states.

But in the past week, polls began showing Sen. McCain falling well behind Democratic presidential nominee Sen. Barack Obama in the state. Two weeks ago, Sen. Obama and his running mate, Sen. Joe Biden, held a rally in Prince William County, Va., long a conservative stronghold in a state that has voted for only one Democratic presidential nominee since 1948. The Democrats drew more than 20,000 people, many of whom waited an hour in a torrential downpour and lightning before the candidates arrived.

Fueled by demographic shifts, rising doubts about the direction of the country, perceived missteps by Sen. McCain and a voter-registration push by the Obama campaign that has helped add a net of 310,000 new, mostly younger voters, the Democratic ticket increasingly appears positioned to win Virginia and make critical inroads across the South. A CNN/Time Inc. poll released Wednesday shows Sen. Obama has opened a nine-point lead on Sen. McCain in Virginia.

The article also notes the Obama's competitive in North Carolina.

While Obama still trails in the Deep South states of Georgia and Mississippi, this year's electoral trends appear to be at least partially reversing the "secular relignment" of Southerners to the Republican column since Barry Goldwater's run for the White House in 1964.

That said, Barack Obama's lead in national polling is tighter than had been assumed, depending on the polling organization and whether one counts "registered" or "likely" voters. Jennifer Rubin, moreover, points to a number of continuing liablities that have preventing the Illinois Democrat from pulling out a double-digit lead in national surveys.

As always, much remains to be seen, and Wednesday night's debate offers one more chance for John McCain to change the dynamics of the race.