Conservatives and the Delaware Primary

Mark Levin linked to one of my old posts on Patrick Frey (Patterico), at Facebook and Twitter:

There's an intra-conservative battle raging over the Delaware primary. I've been too busy to write about it, doing my work on the Ground Zero Mosque. But this is important. John Fund has a breaking update on the race: "Down to the Wire in Delaware":

The Internet was all "atwitter" last night with word that a new survey by Public Policy Polling, a Democratic-leaning firm, finds conservative Christine O'Donnell surging into a lead over moderate Mike Castle in tomorrow's GOP primary for Senate in Delaware.

The PPI poll shows Ms. O'Donnell with 47% of the vote compared to 44% for Mr. Castle, who has been the state's lone U.S. House member since 1992. Mr. Castle has been particularly hurt by Ms. O'Donnell's attacks on his pro-choice views on abortion and his House vote for cap-and-trade ....

A PPP analysis find that Mr. Castle's approval rating "has taken a sharp turn" from a month ago when he had 60% support in the GOP primary. His decline is "largely a product of 55% of voters in his party saying they think he's too liberal," says pollster Tom Jensen. Currently, Ms. O'Donnell gets 62% of likely conservative voters, who are expected to make up two-thirds of tomorrow's electorate. Ms. O'Donnell is being aided by a last-minute robocall to voters from Sarah Palin.

O'Donnell supporters were quick to claim their candidate has the momentum to win tomorrow. But some skepticism is in order. Ms. O'Donnell has lacked the money for an effective absentee ballot program to lock in votes from her supporters. And Mr. Castle has avoided the mistake of Alaska Senator Lisa Murkowski, who narrowly lost a GOP primary last month in part because she didn't pursue absentee voters. Ms. O'Donnell also won't be helped by news yesterday that she once sued a conservative non-profit for nearly $7 million claiming "mental anguish" and gender discrimination after a demotion ....

Conservatives are clearly motivated in Delaware tomorrow and it's likely a majority will back Ms. O'Donnell. But polls like PPP's also signal to Mr. Castle's many supporters that their man is in trouble and they may have to take the unusual step of voting in a GOP primary to save his candidacy. I believe enough will turn out to give Mr. Castle a narrow victory. In the fall election, Mr. Castle has a clear lead over Democrat Chris Coons, while Ms. O'Donnell trails him in head-to-head matchups.

Fund also notes that Public Policy Polling is not very reliable (so perhaps discount the O'Donnell surge in the polls), and that the absentee ballots and election-day turnout will determine the winner (and those are largely unknown circumstances at the moment).

I have no clue on the outcome, frankly, having not followed the race other than to read Dan Riehl's blog on the intra-conservative contortions over Christine O'Donnell. And the contortions continue with Patterico's new post, "O’Donnell Leads Castle in Poll; UPDATE: Levin Calls Patterico an “Idiot”."