See Larry Sabato, at Wall Street Journal, "The 2012 Election Will Come Down to Seven States":
Straw polls, real polls, debates, caucuses, primaries—that's the public side of presidential campaigns 14 months before Election Day. But behind the scenes, strategists for President Obama and his major Republican opponents are already focused like a laser on the Electoral College.Go read it all at the link above.
The emerging general election contest gives every sign of being highly competitive, unlike 2008. Of course, things can change: Ronald Reagan and Bill Clinton were both in trouble at this point in their first terms, and George H.W. Bush still looked safe. Unexpectedly strong economic growth could make Mr. Obama's re-election path much easier than it currently looks, as could the nomination of a damaged Republican candidate. But a few more weeks like the past couple, and Mr. Obama's re-election trajectory will resemble Jimmy Carter's.
Both parties are sensibly planning for a close election. For all the talk about how Hispanics or young people will vote, the private chatter is about a few vital swing states. It's always the Electoral College math that matters most.
Republicans have no shot at winning California, but Pennsylvania's in play, and Sabato identifies 7 states that are totally up for grabs, including Florida and Ohio. Sounds kinda familiar, since those two states have been battlegrounds in recent presidential elections. I'm on record for President Obama as a one-termer. It's the economy, stupid. Sure, we'll have to pay more attention to trends across the states, but it's only 14 months until the election. Unemployment's still going to be excruciatingly high. I can't see how the Democrats can cobble together an Electoral College victory in this environment. Stay tuned.
Oh, and William Jacobson has some commentary on Obama's speech yesterday: "Is this the fight Democrats really want to have?"
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