Gallup Still Has Romney Up, 51 to 45

The survey has a seven-day polling cycle so there's continued volatility in the numbers.

That said, no doubt Nate Silver's still freakin' out over his super sophisticated razzmatazz polling predictions.

See Gallup: "Election 2012 Likely Voters Trial Heat: Obama vs. Romney."

BONUS: At Rasmussen, "Daily Swing State Tracking Poll: Swing State Tracking: Romney 49%, Obama 47%."

And from A.B. Stoddard at The Hill, "Obama spinning toward a loss":

President Obama is losing. So says the latest Gallup poll, and so do those swelling numbers in key states like Wisconsin, Florida, Virginia and Ohio.

Democrats say wait, he won the second debate. They are holding their breath, hoping polls next week will show that this week's debate brought the herky-jerk of the campaign back full swing, with Obama back to his September lead in the swing states and poised to win. But with two weeks to go, a sudden surge in voter support for a president as unpopular as this one, in an economy this weak, is simply hard to believe. Conservatives like Karl Rove note that this late in October, no candidate with support higher than 50 percent (see Mitt Romney: Gallup) has ever gone on to lose.

Perhaps Obama lost the presidency weeks ago, on Oct. 3, when he sleepwalked and scribbled through the first debate and helped make Romney a new candidate overnight. It was Obama's night to finish Romney off; behind in the polls, even Romney likely woke up that morning thinking it was over. But Obama underestimated the task, the challenger and the electorate — all in 90 minutes. So a win this week was critical but perhaps not decisive. There is no obvious reason for Obama's performance to reverse the course of the campaign and blunt Romney now. And though there is one final debate next week, a back-and-forth on national security and foreign policy isn't likely to make the sale for anyone who still cannot make up his or her mind.