Saturday, October 6, 2012

Mitt Romney Debate Bounce

This report from Nate Silver is especially good, because it's from Nate Silver.

Must have been hard for him to write: "Oct. 5: Day After Debate, Strong Swing State Polls for Romney" (at Memeorandum). Silver couldn't believe what he was reading:
Another online tracking poll, from Ipsos, suggested a strong trend for Mr. Romney...

The Ipsos polls are confusing because it has released polls covering various time intervals in the past few days, but they tell a potentially interesting story if you work through them carefully.

In a poll of about 500 voters that Ipsos conducted immediately after the debate, late Wednesday night and early Thursday morning, Mr. Obama still led by 5 points. However, Mr. Obama’s lead was just 2 points in a poll Ipsos released Friday, which included interviews from Monday night (before the debate) through Friday morning.

The inference I make from these Ipsos polls is that Mr. Romney must have polled very well in the most recent interviews it conducted, late Thursday and early Friday morning, quite possibly leading Mr. Obama, in order to have made up so much ground.
Yeah, he must have polled very well.

It's like the guy's writing a freshman political science term paper.

More at AosHQ, "BREAKING: Before/After Debate Poll Release."

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