Immigration Reform Won't Make Social Security Solvent

From Byron York, at the Washington Examiner:

On May 8, the chief actuary of Social Security, Stephen Goss, sent a letter to Republican Gang of Eight leader Marco Rubio saying reform would have a positive effect on Social Security's finances in the next ten years. But that was easy. Most immigrants are well below retirement age; they won't collect Social Security benefits for many years. All they'll do for a long time is pay into the system.

But what about the long term? Goss promised to develop a 75-year analysis of the legislation "as quickly as possible." As it turned out, Goss delivered that long-term estimate on June 28, which just happened to be the day after the Senate passed the bill. It was never part of the debate.

According to Goss, the bill's long-term benefits are also positive -- but just barely, and not in a way that will strengthen the Social Security system as Graham and others claim.

The Social Security Administration's most recent estimate says the system will become insolvent in 2033. Under the Gang bill, according to Goss' estimate, even with all those new immigrants paying taxes, the system will become insolvent in 2035. Not much difference there. And after that, when the immigrants hit retirement age and begin collecting benefits, they will increase Social Security's deficit.

Of course, the immigrants will have children, who will also pay into the system. Put it all together, according to Goss, and immigration reform will add about $2 trillion in tax revenues in the next 75 years, while costing about $1.5 trillion in benefits. That's a net plus, but not much of a boon, since it is stretched out over more than seven decades -- and certainly not when one considers the tendency of federal programs to grow in cost.

So even with reform, the nation's entitlement programs are on as shaky ground as before.

Well, it helps a little. Why be niggardly about it? (Via Instapundit.)