Russian Invasion of Ukraine? — UPDATED!

No, it's not an "invasion" yet (thankfully, for Blake Hounshell, at least).

But see Professor Kim Zisk (Kimberley Martin), at Foreign Affairs, "Crimean Punishment: Why Russia Won't Invade Ukraine":

There has been much speculation of late about a possible Russian intervention in Ukraine. After Russia ordered large-scale military exercises on Ukraine’s border earlier this week, for example, U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry warned that “any kind of military intervention that would violate the sovereign territorial integrity of Ukraine would be a huge, a grave mistake." And NATO Secretary General Anders Fogh Rasmussen tweeted today, “I urge Russia not to take any action that can escalate tension or create misunderstanding.” It seems that Western policymakers are most worried about two possible scenarios: First, that Russia would embargo gas to Ukraine, and second, that it would invade Ukraine’s Crimean peninsula. Is either of these two really likely?

Keep reading.

Personally, I'm not ruling anything out. Putin could send a couple of hundred thousand troops to "secure" Kiev and Obama wouldn't do a damned thing.

UPDATE: Professor Zisk has revised her unfounded prediction, "Putin's Biggest Mistake The Real Stakes of Intervening In Ukraine," putting the blame for the headline on the editors at the magazine. But she erred in her analysis. Check the link for her new take on events.

Personally, I don't think as many commentators were calling Russia's moves an "invasion" until today (Saturday), and that's how I saw it: as a limited operation to secure Russia's military assets and lines of communication. So, my bad. Interesting spin from Zisk, however:

The title and subtitle were picked by the editors; my read on the situation did not give me certainty that Russia wouldn’t invade Crimea, and indeed I argued that an invasion was likely if there was violence against ethnic Russians there (which is why I urged the Ukrainian government not to rise to the bait by permitting or encouraging anti-Russian violence in Crimea).

Heh. Double negatives are sure to confuse.

But nah. I'd just say events unfolded faster than folks could get an accurate handle on what was going on. "Invasion" indicates more like an armored assault with arrayed infantry divisions, etc. But whatever. It's on now.