New Poll Shows Hagan and Tillis Statistically Tied in #NCSEN

Most analysts have been crowing about how little effect the outside ads have been having on Kay Hagan's standing in the race. Although now, with the new survey from USA Today and Suffolk University, folks are going to have to come up with another deflection point for the left's epic Democrat Party fail.

And remember, Tillis is supposed to be an objectively bad candidate, having supposedly alienated North Carolinians with a take-no-prisoners conservative reform agenda as Speaker of the North Carolina House (remember "Moral Mondays"?). Well, I guess that argument's not holding much water anymore either.

I noted the race was tightening the other day, when we had the blatantly partisan Democrat Party survey out from Public Policy Polling. But USA Today has long run a very reputable series of public opinion polls. And now they've got #NCSEN deadlocked.

Here's the report, from Susan Page, "Poll: In a sour N.C. Senate race, it's all but a tie":

ICYMI: In a sour #NCSen race, it's all but a tie http://t.co/mI8tyX3sKA via @SusanPage pic.twitter.com/dGR0br6Smj
— USA TODAY Washington (@USATWashington) August 21, 2014

North Carolina Sen. Kay Hagan is all but tied with Republican challenger Thom Tillis in a midterm showdown likely to help determine control of the Senate, a USA TODAY/Suffolk University poll finds.

The Tar Heel State survey, which launches a series looking at key Senate and gubernatorial contests across the country this fall, shows an electorate that is feeling a bit better about the economy but decidedly negative toward politics. Voters are inclined to have an unfavorable view of each candidate and overwhelmingly disapprove of the legislative bodies in which they serve.

Hagan leads Tillis, the speaker of the North Carolina General Assembly, 45%-43%, an edge within the poll's margin of error of +/-4.4 percentage points. Libertarian candidate Sean Haugh could hold the balance: His supporters, 5% overall, disproportionately identify Tillis as their second choice.

The impact of the hard-fought campaign already has left some scars.

Frazier Manning, a 75-year-old retiree from Hope Mills who was among those surveyed, is voting for Tillis in large part because he's dismayed by Hagan, especially for her support of the Affordable Care Act. "She voted for it, but she won't respond to me about how she's going to fix it," he says. "I think he'll do more to repeal it and replace it." ...

North Carolina has been a Republican-leaning state but one Democrats increasingly see as competitive. Hagan, elected in 2008, is one of the GOP's prime targets in its effort to gain six seats and with it control of the Senate. After Tuesday's primary in Alaska, where Dan Sullivan won the Republican nomination to challenge Sen. Mark Begich, the most closely watched Senate races now are set. Sullivan and other establishment-backed contenders defeated Tea Party primary opponents, a development expected to boost GOP prospects in November.

The USA TODAY/Suffolk University poll of 500 likely voters, interviewed by landline and cellphone, was taken Saturday through Tuesday. Other recent statewide surveys also have shown a tight race. Tillis had a lead of 1.7 points in four surveys over the past month tracked by realclearpolitics.com.

More.