The likelihood of a Republican Senate takeover continues to increase with all three major election models giving the GOP at least a six in ten probability of winning the six seats the party needs to win take back control.All leftist outlets. All of them, which means it's even worse for the Democrats than Cillizza lets on. It's going to be a bloodbath on November 4th. I can't wait!
Two of the three models have moved in Republicans' direction over the past week. FiveThirtyEight, Nate Silver's model, gives Republicans a 62 percent chance at the majority, which is up from 58 percent last week, while LEO, the New York Times Senate model, now shows a 69 percent probability of a GOP win -- up from 64 percent last week. (The Washington Post's Election Lab model show Republicans with a 94 percent chance at the majority last Monday and a 93 percent chance today.)
The trend lines in both the LEO and FiveThirtyEight models highlight movement over the past week toward Republicans -- with a slight tick back toward Democrats in the last few days...
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Monday, October 20, 2014
Republican Senate Chances Keep Rising
From Chris Cillizza, at the Washington Post, "Republicans chances of winning the Senate keep getting better":
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