Joni Ernst Takes 7-Point Lead in Des Moines Register's Final Poll Before Tuesday's Election

This is major, for if Ernst takes Iowa, Republicans are practically guaranteed the six seats necessary to take control of the Senate.

At the Des Moines Register, "Iowa Poll: Ernst takes 7-point lead":

Joni Ernst has charged to achieve a 7-point lead over Democrat Bruce Braley in a new Iowa Poll, which buoys the GOP's hope that an Iowa victory will be the tipping point to a Republican takeover of the U.S. Senate.

Ernst, a state senator and military leader, enjoys 51 percent support among likely voters. That's a majority, and it's her biggest lead in the three Iowa Polls conducted this fall. Braley, a congressman and trial lawyer, gets 44 percent, according to The Des Moines Register's final Iowa Poll before Tuesday's election.

"This race looks like it's decided," said J. Ann Selzer, who conducted the poll for the Register. "That said, there are enormous resources being applied to change all that."

The news will thrill Republican activists nationwide, who are counting on Iowa as an anchor for regaining the majority in the U.S. Senate. On Saturday, a progressive group organized a conference call with Majority Leader Harry Reid to urge Iowa Democrats "to double down and save the Senate."

"If we win Iowa, we're going to do just fine," he said. "Iowa is critical, there's no other way to say it."

If Republicans control the Senate, Reid said, "think of what that would mean for our country."

Here's what has shaped Ernst's lead, according to the poll results:

• Although a small plurality of likely voters thinks Braley has more depth on the issues, they like Ernst better than Braley on several character descriptions. They think she better reflects Iowa values, she cares more about people like them, and she's more of a regular, down-to-earth person.

• Voters find Ernst, who has led Iowa troops in war, to be a reassuring presence on security issues, the poll shows. In the wake of news developments on the Ebola outbreak in West Africa, increasing aggressiveness of Russia and the rise of the Islamic State in the Middle East, more likely voters see Ernst as better equipped than Braley to show leadership and judgment, by at least 9 points on each issue.

• Independent voters are going Ernst's way, 51 percent to 39 percent.

• The negativity in the race has hurt Braley more than Ernst. Forty-four percent say he has been more negative in campaign ads, compared with 32 percent for Ernst.

• Among several potential mistakes the two candidates have made, the one that stands out is Braley's seemingly condescending remark about Republican U.S. Sen. Chuck Grassley. In March, GOP operatives released caught-on-tape remarks Braley made at a private fundraiser in Texas that seemed to question the qualifications of "a farmer from Iowa without a law degree" to become the next chairman of the Senate Judiciary Committee.

That inflicted a lingering hurt, as did emergence of the news that Braley had missed the majority of his Veterans Affairs Committee hearings, the poll shows.

Negative TV advertising by GOP outside groups relentlessly pushed those two pieces of damage.

Oh my! Ernst holds a 12-point lead among independents?!! The Democrats are going to be castrated like an Iowa hog!!

BONUS: At Legal Insurrection, "Iowa and Colorado – Signs of the Democratic Apocalypse."