Sunday, October 11, 2015

Obama’s Options Narrow in Syria

Yeah, Putin's kicked Obama's ass in Syria. Few options left now.

At WSJ, "Pentagon abandons plan to build rebel army as U.S. suggests Assad could remain for a time":
WASHINGTON—Ten days into a Russian military campaign that has upended U.S. policy in Syria, President Barack Obama is picking from two bad options for how to respond.

The U.S. is hesitant to become more involved in Syria’s bloody and messy civil war, at the risk of forcing a proxy war with Russia. The president’s goal continues to be resisting any greater U.S. military commitment, aides say.

That leaves one other choice: to accept Syrian President Bashar al-Assad’s hold on power, even though U.S. policy calls for his removal, and hope to negotiate his exit when the battlefield is less volatile.

On Friday, the Pentagon said it would abandon its failed, $500-million program to build an army of opposition fighters in Syria in favor of an effort to directly arm favored Syrian rebel commanders to fight Islamic State.

U.S. officials are no longer demanding Mr. Assad must step down immediately. Rather they are advocating a “managed” transition in which Mr. Assad could remain in Syria for some time.

The U.S. also is discussing ideas that require less military intervention and might provide additional humanitarian relief. One effort under discussion is the establishment of local cease fires negotiated with the Assad regime. Ben Rhodes, one of Mr. Obama’s closest foreign-policy advisers, noted Friday this has been tried by the United Nations. But he cautioned that the U.S. would want to ensure that such an effort not aid Mr. Assad at the expense of the opposition.

The deliberations are complicated by a fast-changing situation on the ground, as Russian airstrikes relieve some of the pressure on the Assad regime, Moscow’s longtime ally.

U.S. officials initially expressed optimism that Moscow might help in the fight against Islamic State militants. But since the first Russian airstrikes on Sept. 30, U.S. officials have voiced alarm at what they say is a campaign to strengthen Mr. Assad by targeting any opponent of his regime, including ones backed by the U.S.

Mr. Rhodes said that while the president will continue to refine his strategy, he isn’t considering options that would significantly ramp up U.S. military involvement, such as a no-fly zone.

“We see significant resourcing challenges associated with focusing on the establishment of no-fly zone that could, frankly, take away from other elements” of the campaign against Islamic State, he said...
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