Tuesday, August 9, 2016

No Conspiracy: The Polls Aren't Skewed

I checked the sampling on a few of the big double-digit polls last week, and for the life of me, I didn't see much bias toward the Democrats. If anything, I expected to see more Democrats, around 35 percent, in the distributions. (Republicans should be in the high 20 percent, to be representative.)

And that's exactly what Harry Enten's arguing at 538.

I remember in 2012 when everyone thought that Romney was going to win Ohio. Gallup especially got everybody all fired up in the last few days before the election, with Romney going up to 51 percent nationally just days before the election in their presidential tracker. They're not even doing daily tracking polls for 2016, it turns out. They got burned so bad.

So, I'm just waiting to see what's going to happen. The best comment I've seen in the last week was from Lisa Boothe on Fox News the other day, when she said that Trump needed to go up with paid advertising to be able to get his message out, over the leftist media pro-Democrat spin. Frankly, for me that's the most important thing at this point in the race. If Team Trump thinks they're going to win this by earned media alone, they're delusional. If I was Trump I'd sell some real estate, or whatever, and make a $1 billion investment in my own campaign. He says he's got the money. He should put his money where his mouth is.

In any case, seen earlier on Twitter. It's worth a read:


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