Showing posts with label Holidays. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Holidays. Show all posts

Tuesday, January 18, 2022

Wednesday, December 22, 2021

Surging American Demand Ripples Through the Global Economy

The economy is expected to grow at an annualized rate of 7 percent for the fourth quarter, but big numbers won't help the White House. Voters are really souring on this administration, most likely from relentless inflationary pressures, felt everyday at the gas pumps especially. 

At WSJ, "Booming U.S. Economy Ripples World-Wide":

FRANKFURT—A booming U.S. economy is rippling around the world, leaving global supply chains struggling to keep up and pushing up prices.

The force of the American expansion is also inducing overseas companies to invest in the U.S., betting that the growth is still accelerating and will outpace other major economies.

U.S. consumers, flush with trillions of dollars of fiscal stimulus, are snapping up manufactured goods and scarce materials.

U.S. economic output is set to expand by more than 7% annualized in the final three months of the year, up from about 2% in the previous quarter, according to early output estimates published by the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta. That compares with expected annualized growth of about 2% in the eurozone and 4% in China for the fourth quarter, according to JPMorgan Chase.

Major U.S. ports are processing almost one-fifth more container volume this year than they did in 2019, even as volumes at major European ports like Hamburg and Rotterdam are roughly flat or lag behind 2019 levels. The busiest U.S. container ports are leaping ahead of their counterparts in Asia and Europe in global rankings as volumes surge, according to shipping data provider Alphaliner.

In Europe, “durable goods consumption is showing nothing like the boom that is ongoing in the United States,” said Fabio Panetta, who sits on the European Central Bank’s six-member executive board, in a speech last month. Consumption of durable goods has surged about 45% above 2018 levels in the U.S., but is up only about 2% in the eurozone, according to ECB data.

Factory gate prices in China are far outpacing consumer prices, signaling a gulf between weak domestic demand and strong overseas demand that is powered in particular by U.S. hunger for China’s manufactured goods.

While tangled global supply chains also play a role in driving global inflation, economists and central bankers are increasingly pointing to ultrastrong U.S. demand as a root cause.

“Are we crowding out consumers in other countries? Probably,” said Aneta Markowska, chief financial economist at Jefferies in New York. “The U.S. consumer has a lot more purchasing power as a result of fiscal policy than consumers elsewhere. Europe could be in a stagflationary scenario next year as a consequence.”

The U.S. accounts for almost nine-tenths of the roughly 22-percentage-point surge in demand for durable goods among major advanced economies since the end of 2019, according to data from the Bank of England.

“Very strong U.S. demand is certainly where [global supply bottlenecks] started,” said Lars Mikael Jensen, head of network at container ship giant A.P. Moller-Maersk A/S.

“It’s like a queue on a highway. The increase in volume in the U.S…takes ships away from other markets,” said Mr. Jensen. “Problems in one place will trigger problems somewhere else, we live in a global world.”

The U.S. economy will likely grow by around 6% in 2021 and 4% or more in 2022, the highest rates for decades, analysts say. Strong U.S. growth momentum is expected to push the unemployment rate to the lowest level in almost seven decades by 2023, according to Deutsche Bank analysts.

U.S. economic output is likely to surpass its pre-pandemic path early next year, while output in China and emerging markets will remain about 2% below that path through 2023, according to JPMorgan Chase.

U.S. wages are growing by about 4% a year, above the precrisis trend rate, compared with less than 1% growth in the eurozone, according to data from the Bank for International Settlements, a Switzerland-based bank for central banks.

“We threw a lot of support at [the economy] and what’s coming out now is really strong growth, really strong demand, high incomes and all that kind of thing,” said Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell after the central bank’s recent meeting. “People will judge in 25 years whether we overdid it or not.”

The Fed said it would more quickly scale back its Covid-19 bond purchases and set the stage for a series of interest-rate increases beginning next spring.

In Europe, the ECB pledged to continue buying bonds at least through October 2022, and said it was unlikely to raise interest rates next year. Underlying U.S. inflation, annualized over two years, has risen above 3%, roughly double the level in the eurozone, according to data that adjust for the impact of the pandemic and changes in volatile food and energy prices.

“The strong post-pandemic recovery that was originally expected for 2022 still hasn’t materialized,” said Timo Wollmershäuser, head of forecasts at Germany’s Ifo think tank. The institute recently lowered its growth forecast for Germany in 2022 by 1.4 percentage points, to 3.7%, citing ongoing supply bottlenecks and a new wave of Covid-19.

The Fed’s assertiveness is pushing up the value of the U.S. dollar and putting pressure on emerging-market central banks to increase interest rates even before their own economic recoveries are assured or risk depreciating currencies and runaway inflation.

Mexico’s central bank on Dec. 16 said it would increase its benchmark interest rate by 0.5 percentage point to 5.50% after inflation rose to a 20-year high of 7.4%.

In Europe, the ECB pledged to continue buying bonds at least through October 2022, and said it was unlikely to raise interest rates next year. Underlying U.S. inflation, annualized over two years, has risen above 3%, roughly double the level in the eurozone, according to data that adjust for the impact of the pandemic and changes in volatile food and energy prices.

“The strong post-pandemic recovery that was originally expected for 2022 still hasn’t materialized,” said Timo Wollmershäuser, head of forecasts at Germany’s Ifo think tank. The institute recently lowered its growth forecast for Germany in 2022 by 1.4 percentage points, to 3.7%, citing ongoing supply bottlenecks and a new wave of Covid-19.

The Fed’s assertiveness is pushing up the value of the U.S. dollar and putting pressure on emerging-market central banks to increase interest rates even before their own economic recoveries are assured or risk depreciating currencies and runaway inflation.

Mexico’s central bank on Dec. 16 said it would increase its benchmark interest rate by 0.5 percentage point to 5.50% after inflation rose to a 20-year high of 7.4%.

Russia’s central bank said Friday it would increase its key interest rate by 1 percentage point to 8.5%, and might raise rates again soon, after inflation hit a near six-year high of 8.4%.

Businesses are pouring money into the U.S., looking to take advantage of what some expect to be a sustainable increase in demand. In some cases, they are bringing production closer to American consumers, looking to avoid supply shocks related to the pandemic and global trade wars...

Still more.

 

Sunday, December 19, 2021

Saturday, December 18, 2021

Saturday, November 27, 2021

Holiday Shopping

 At Amazon.

Here, LifeSmart HT1013 High Power 1,500 Watt 6 Quartz Element Infrared Large Room 3 Mode Programmable Space Heater w/ Remote and Digital Display.

Also, Christmas Blanket Super Soft Warm Throw Blanket Winter Cardinal Birds Christmas Truck with Xmas Trees Snowman Blanket for Kid Teen Adult (51'' x 59'').

And, Pendleton Outerwear Men's Boulder, Pendleton Iconic RED Buffalo Ombre.

Here's more, Women Knit Wool Beanie - Winter Fashion Solid Wool Hats Real Removable Raccoon Fur Pom Pom Warm Ski Beanie.

Plus, FARVALUE Boy Winter Coat Warm Quilted Puffer Water Resistant Parka Jacket with Detachable Fur Hood for Big Boys.

Okay, The North Face Girls' Gotham Down Parka.

Light, Coleman LED Lantern | 400 Lumens Personal Lantern with 4D Battery.

Heat, DuroMax XP12000EH Generator-12000 Watt Gas or Propane Powered Home Back Up & RV Ready, 50 State Approved Dual Fuel Electric Start Portable Generator, Black and Blue.

BONUS: Joshua Piven, The Worst-Case Scenario Survival Handbook: Expert Advice for Extreme Situations (Survival Handbook, Wilderness Survival Guide, Funny Books) Hardcover.


Mary Grabar, Debunking Howard Zinn

At Amazon, Mary Grabar, Debunking Howard Zinn: Exposing the Fake History That Turned a Generation against America.



Caroline Wozniacki

Beautiful family.




Saturday Cartoon

Via Theo Spark.

More at Legal Insurrection, "Branco Cartoon – Enemy Of The State-Run Media."





Thursday, November 25, 2021

The War on Thanksgiving

Hey, it's that special day when deranged "progressive" extremists dunk on U.S. colonialism, genocide, imperialism, racism, and all the other evils of AmeriKKK.

Check out Matt Tabbai: 


In the space of a generation America has gone from being a country brimming with undeserved over-confidence, to one whose intellectual culture has turned into an agonizing, apparently interminable run of performative self-flagellation.

More at Memorandum, "The War on Thanksgiving Is America at Its Worst.

Thursday, November 11, 2021

The Marlboro Marine

Have a good Veterans Day everybody.

The video's from the Los Angeles Times:



Monday, September 6, 2021

Happy Labor Day!

Here's to all those hard-working Americans (that is, all of us who actually work, rather than suck at the teat of the sow of the American social welfare state).

On Twitter:

Also, lusty blonde.

And tremendous Tessa.





Wednesday, June 2, 2021

Vegas Vactioners Face 26-Mile Traffic Jam Back to California (VIDEO)

At the Review Journal, "Memorial Day traffic jams I-15 at California-Nevada border."

There were a few drunk drivers, but most of those busted were trying to make time on the emergency lanes. That's why my wife and I get on the freeway before 6:00am, to beat the rush back to Cali.



Monday, May 31, 2021

Memorial Day Holiday Weather with Meteorologist Leah Pezzetti

It's looking pretty overcast. It's the end of May, though, so folks can normally expect the June "gloom" anyway. 

Here's the lovely Ms. Leah, for ABC News 10 San Diego:



Saturday, April 3, 2021

Please Shop Amazon Until I Can Get Back to This Blog, Tomorrow, or the Next Day

I'm heading out to Fresno/Clovis in a bit, so here's the link to Amazon, if you'd like to do some shopping, which is appreciated. 

And for some reason, I woke up with Elvis Costello's "Alison" on my brain, and I was singing the song in my head while taking my morning piss, heh.


I'll be back up blogging again as soon as I can. Have a great Easter holiday!

Friday, December 25, 2020

'Totally Not Kidding. We've Done It'

From Sarah Hoyt, at Instapundit, "PLEASE REMEMBER YOU’RE AMERICAN. IT’S IMPORTANT."




'Die Hard' is Definitely a Christmas Movie

At the Other McCain, where the inimitable Robert Stacy McCain regales us with Merry Christmas Eve movie-aficionado insights. 

See, "‘Happy Trails, Hans’: What Is Everybody’s Favorite Christmas Movie Really About?"