Hillary Clinton’s Email Deceptions

At WSJ, "Clinton’s Email Deceptions":

Hillary Clinton has said for more than a year that her use of a private email server as Secretary of State violated no federal rules and posed no security risk. Only the gullible believed that, and now everyone has proof of her deceptions in a scathing report from State Department Inspector General Steve Linick.

The report obtained by news outlets Wednesday is ostensibly an audit of the email practices of five secretaries of State. But the majority of the report, and the most withering criticism, focuses on Mrs. Clinton. The IG concludes that the presumptive Democratic presidential nominee broke federal record-keeping rules, never received permission for her off-grid server, ignored security concerns raised by other officials, and employed a staff that flouted the rules with the same disdain she did.

“Secretary Clinton should have preserved any Federal records she created and received on her personal account by printing and filing those records with the related files in the Office of the Secretary,” says the report. “At a minimum, Secretary Clinton should have surrendered all emails dealing with Department business before leaving government service and, because she did not do so, she did not comply with the Department’s policies that were implemented in accordance with the Federal Records Act.”

State still has never received emails from her private account for the first six weeks after she became Secretary, and the IG notes that it found (by other means) business-related emails that Mrs. Clinton did not include among the emails she has turned over.

The report says she has also stonewalled requests to obtain her server. And “through her counsel, Secretary Clinton declined [the IG’s] request for an interview.” Former Secretaries Madeleine Albright, Colin Powell, Condoleezza Rice and current Secretary John Kerry all sat for interviews.

Mrs. Clinton’s staff abetted her bad practices. The report says the IG “learned of extensive use of personal email accounts by four immediate staff members (none of whom responded to the questionnaire). . . . The material consists of nearly 72,000 pages in hard copy and more than 7.5 gigabytes of electronic data. One of the staff submitted 9,585 emails spanning January 22, 2009 to February 24, 2013, averaging 9 emails per workday sent on a personal email account.”

The IG—who had better hire a food-taster—also found that Mrs. Clinton neither sought nor received permission for her private communications. The former Secretary also understood the security risks this posed because she was warned several times...

Still more.

And at WaPo, via Memeorandum, "State Dept. inspector general report sharply criticizes Clinton's email practices."

#NeverTrump STFU

Heh.

At AoSHQ, "Is It Getting To Be About the Time When the #NeverTrumpers Should Go Radio Silent?":

what exactly is @benshapiro's plan, or @redstate's, or @EWErickson's, or @NRO's? Is it just to carp forever?

— The Dishonorable DJT (@AceofSpadesHQ) May 25, 2016

When I flipped to hardcore anti-Trump myself a few months back, it was due to Trump's horrifying poll numbers and the grim probability he'd lose and we'd get 3-5 liberal justices. Enough to seal the Republic's fate.

Well, flash forward two months, and Trump isn't doing too badly in the polls. He might even have a decent shot at winning. [And] yet the "Principled Conservatives" who ought to be the most concerned about gifting the Supreme Court to the liberals for the next sixty years are blowing the subject off like it's just a big lark.

Excuse me?

Please explain to me the continuing hardcore commitment to #NeverTrump.

Is it...

1. Disliking the fact that the Upper Middle College Educated Class controlled the party for decades, and made a sport of ignoring the Working Class, but now the Working Class has reasserted itself and taken over and the members of the displaced Upper Middle College Educated Class just can't stand not being in a poll position any longer?

2. Showing off to one's liberal comrades that one isn't One Of That Kind of Conservative? That is, Virtue Signalling?

3. Attempting to save one's professional reputation? I get this one myself -- someone asked me why I was so anti-Trump, and I said the man was so vulgar, stupid, and crass that he made it necessary to oppose him simply to preserve one's professional standing.

So I get that idea. I get that idea an awful lot.

But we happen to be talking about the Republic at this point.

One of two people will be president in January -- Hillary Rodham Clinton, a sociopath who was a corrupt politician even before she entered politics (remember Whitewater? Her $100,000 cattles future trading) or Donald Trump.

What is the fear, here? That Donald Trump might be nearly as bad as Hillary Clinton certainly will be?

Name one issue on which Hillary Clinton is superior to Trump. The most I ever here is "We don't know what Trump will do, he could be just as bad as Hillary."

Oh? He could be that bad?

Look, Drew asked a while ago: What makes obviously liberal-cultural-values Republicans actually Republicans, apart from habit?

Maybe it's time for the great re-sorting to begin. It's time for actual Democrats, who are most comfortable with Democrats, and feel the most affinity for Democrats, to make their party allegiance official and simply declare for Hillary Clinton and join the Democratic Party.

Because I cannot see any "conservative" continuing to say "Oh yeah, I want to expand Dear Colleague directives to college and put more men in kangaroo court trials for hoax rapes just to show those Trump people how little I think of their ilk."

Enough. Enough.

You don't have to get on Team Trump, and you don't have to love him. Trump did not suddenly become well-informed or virtuous simply because he won the nomination.

However, at the moment, he is the only plausible tool by which we can prevent President Hillary Clinton, and if that isn't enough to at least get you to bite your tongue or find some other interest (politics isn't especially interesting, you know; there are a thousand fields more interesting and rewarding), then you're not merely #NeverTrump, you're closer to #NeverReallyAConservative.

Believe me, if Trump tanks in the polls, or if some really terrible info comes out about him (which I think is fairly likely), I'll be the first guy explaining to the Trumpheads why we must pull the bathtub drain on Trump to save the Republic.

But we're not at that moment.

Here's That Idiotic 'Open Letter to the American People'

These are bad people. Terrible people.

When idiotic vile leftists mount their soapboxes to oppose Trump, they're actually denouncing the great majority of the American people who like and admire him. This election genuinely is about the survival of America as we've known it.

The New York Times reports:

More than 400 writers sign petition protesting Donald Trump https://t.co/lYqknwZCF2 pic.twitter.com/tqK2AJB7wW

— NYT National News (@NYTNational) May 25, 2016

And from the letter, via Mediagazer:

Because, as writers, we are particularly aware of the many ways that language can be abused in the name of power;

Because we believe that any democracy worthy of the name rests on pluralism, welcomes principled disagreement, and achieves consensus through reasoned debate;

Because American history, despite periods of nativism and bigotry, has from the first been a grand experiment in bringing people of different backgrounds together, not pitting them against one another;

Because the history of dictatorship is the history of manipulation and division, demagoguery and lies;

Because the search for justice is predicated on a respect for the truth;

Because we believe that knowledge, experience, flexibility, and historical awareness are indispensable in a leader;

Because neither wealth nor celebrity qualifies anyone to speak for the United States, to lead its military, to maintain its alliances, or to represent its people;

Because the rise of a political candidate who deliberately appeals to the basest and most violent elements in society, who encourages aggression among his followers, shouts down opponents, intimidates dissenters, and denigrates women and minorities, demands, from each of us, an immediate and forceful response;

For all these reasons, we, the undersigned, as a matter of conscience, oppose, unequivocally, the candidacy of Donald J. Trump for the Presidency of the United States.

Authorities Looking to Avoid Riots as Donald Trump Returns to Orange County (VIDEO)

Well, good luck with that, especially given last night's rioting in Albuquerque.

Frankly, the protests are only helping Donald Trump.

At CBS News 2 Los Angeles, "Authorities Hope to Avoid Repeat of Costa Mesa Chaos as Trump Returns to Orange County."

Anti-Trump Rioters in Albuquerque, New Mexico

Following-up from previously, "Donald Trump: 'To hell with the men. I want to set records with women...' (VIDEO)."

Check out these tweets, from NBC's Jacob Rascon:

* "Watch: Dozens of extra officers brought in as Trump protesters break through barricades, chant 'shut it down!'"

* "Protesters try to break down doors to Trump Albequerque event, chased away by police. Protesters now throwing gates, bottles at officers."

* "Protesters outside Trump event now burning pro-Trump flags and signs, police line trying to push them back, officers now putting on masks."

* "Officers toss what appears to be tear gas, Trump protesters kick some of the canisters back at police. Officers also using pepper spray."

* "Watch: Protesters throw rocks at police, officers respond by tossing smoke canisters, using pepper spray."

* "Protesters move away from Trump venue, take over nearby streets and intersections. Officers a block or so away."

* "Police on horseback push back protesters, many of whom tell me they're angry about Trump's rhetoric on immigration."

Plus, at Conservative Treehouse, "Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders Supporters Turn Violent in New Mexico…"

Donald Trump: 'To hell with the men. I want to set records with women...' (VIDEO)

He's just funny to listen to while speaking on the stump.

Watch, via AP, "Protesters Interrupt Trump Rally in Albuquerque: Republican presidential hopeful Donald Trump rallied thousands of supporters during a stop in Albuquerque on Tuesday night as protesters tried to derail his speech..."

Also, at Politico, "The number of protesters [rioters] at the Trump rally was estimated in the hundreds..."

KCAL 9's Interview with Bernie Sanders in Irvine (VIDEO)

Local news coverage.

Folks were Feeling the Bern last night at the Irvine Meadows Amphitheater:



Also at the O.C. Register, "Bernie Sanders in Orange County: Thousands turn out to hear him campaign against 'rigged' system."

Democrats Freak Out - Donald Trump Surges

Look, all these recent polls are national head-to-head surveys. The real battles in the Electoral College, but still. It sure is nice to have the Dems sweating.

Following-up, "ABC News/Washington Post Poll: Dramatic Trend-Line Shows Donald Trump Passing Hillary Clinton (VIDEO)."

Here's today's New York Post, and it's hilarious!

Today's front page: Democrats are freaking out over a possible President Trump https://t.co/6AGg7VoQNP pic.twitter.com/iffMT13tXt

— New York Post (@nypost) May 23, 2016

ABC News/Washington Post Poll: Dramatic Trend-Line Shows Donald Trump Passing Hillary Clinton (VIDEO)

Here's the video, at ABC News, "Washington Post Poll Shows Tight Race for White House."

And here's the coverage, at WaPo, via Memeorandum, "Poll: Election 2016 shapes up as a contest of negatives."

And at ABC News, "A Post-Primary Rally Boosts Trump, Albeit with Challenges Aplenty (POLL)" (via Memeorandum).

And a Scribd document here, "A Post-Primary Rally Boosts Trump, Albeit with Challenges Aplenty."



Republicans are solidifying their support behind Donald Trump, while the Democrat race becomes more divisive and violent.

Amazingly (or not), MSM reporters like WaPo's Dan Balz downplay the overall trends to focus on Donald Trump's high negatives. But the fact is, survey trend-lines look really bad for Hillary Clinton:

A new ABC News/Washington Post poll shows a close contest in presidential election preferences, with Republicans lining up behind Donald Trump as their party’s presumptive nominee while the continued Democratic race is keeping Hillary Clinton’s side more unsettled.

Greater voter registration among Republicans is one factor: Clinton’s 6-point lead among all adults, 48-42 percent in a general election matchup, switches to essentially a dead heat among registered voters, 46 percent for Trump, 44 percent for Clinton. Regardless, the contest has tightened considerably since March, when Clinton led among registered voters by 9 points.

Trump’s enhanced competitiveness reflects consolidation in his support since his primary opponents dropped out, and it comes despite significant challenges to his candidacy. Fifty-eight percent of Americans call him unqualified to be president, 60 percent see him unfavorably overall, 76 percent think he doesn’t show enough respect for those he disagrees with and 64 percent say he should release his tax returns (with most feeling strongly about it). These include majorities of registered voters on each item, representing opportunities for Clinton.

Republicans and Republican-leaning independents, moreover, split 46-46 percent on whether or not Trump represents the core values of the party. That’s sharply improved from 29-56 percent in July, but it leaves the party still divided on a key measure of Trump’s suitability.

Clinton has challenges of her own – 53 percent of Americans (and 57 percent of registered voters) see her unfavorably, making this a matchup between the two most unpopular likely presidential candidates in the history of ABC/Post election polls, dating back to 1984.

Indeed, half of each candidate’s supporters are negative voters, saying they oppose the other candidate more than they support their own choice. Fewer than half on either side back their candidate strongly. And while 51 percent of Americans say they’d be satisfied with a Clinton - Trump race, 44 percent say they’d want a third-party candidate to run.

Most potential voters, though, seem committed in opposition, if not in support. Marking the level of cross-party antipathy in this contest, 86 percent of Trump supporters say they’d never consider voting for Clinton – and 86 percent of Clinton supporters say the same about Trump.

That's negative partisanship, which I've highlighted as one of the major elements of the current electoral environment, and something to keep an eye on through the fall. Indeed, it's negative partisanship that explains why Trump is consolidating Republican support so quickly and decisively since Ted Cruz dropped out.




More at Memeorandum.

Also at the Conservative Treehouse, "BOOM – Trump Leads Clinton In ABC/Washington Post Poll, Even With D+8 Poll Sample…"

And see Twitchy, "‘Hit the panic button, Hillary’: Latest polls show significant swing from Clinton to Trump."

Democrat Party Chaos! (VIDEO)

It's getting so bad on the Democrat side that Donald Trump's actually getting a boost from the leftist disarray!

I love it.

At the New York Times, "From Bernie Sanders Supporters, Death Threats Over Delegates."

More at Bloomberg, via Memeorandum, "Clinton, Democrats Confronting Dangerous Divisions Within Party."

And at the Los Angeles Times, "Sanders and Democratic officials are engaged in an escalating dispute over Nevada violence."

And watch, via NBC News:

Some Democrats Starting to Get Queasy About Hillary Clinton

I am loving this campaign, heh. Loving it!

At Politico, "Hillary Clinton's primary quagmire":

Hours before the West Virginia polls closed Tuesday, Hillary Clinton’s top fundraisers got a memo from campaign manager Robby Mook. The message: Even if Bernie runs the table in the remaining states, he still can’t win.

It’s a well-known point by now, but it’s still one Mook needed to make as Clinton sputters toward the finish line, loaded down with the baggage of recent losses in Indiana and West Virginia and the prospect of a few more losses still to come.

This wasn’t the way the Democratic primary was supposed to end. Clinton may have turned her focus to presumptive GOP nominee Donald Trump, but at the same time her campaign is forced to continue fighting a rear-guard action against Bernie Sanders, who shows no sign of surrender.

After going dark on television for several weeks, the former secretary of state is suddenly investing in television advertisements in Kentucky — a state that should have been in her wheelhouse. Deep into the primary schedule, Clinton is forced to reckon with almost weekly results highlighting her relative weaknesses with white men and young voters, and she’s only gradually been able to increase her swing state travel. All the while, Trump sharpens his day-to-day critiques of her.

Some Democrats are now growing uneasy over a rocky finish that has Clinton spending resources and political capital so late in the process.

“The defeat in Indiana I was just horrified at, frankly,” said former Democratic National Committee chairman Don Fowler, a Clinton backer, echoing others who say that for the moment it’s more of an annoyance than a deep concern about the candidate. “The longer Bernie stays in, and the longer he is not mathematically out of the process, the weaker we’re going to seem to be."

Clinton is still on track to pass the threshold to clinch the nomination at some point in June using a combination of pledged delegates and superdelegates, and her lead among pledged delegates remains above 275. That makes it extremely difficult for Sanders to catch up to her unless he can win over a large number of the party elites who vote regardless of their state’s decision. Yet the Clinton campaign, cognizant of the need to show respect to Sanders’ legion of devoted supporters, is unable to initiate the call to unite behind her candidacy...

More.

Here Are Four Things #NeverTrump Doesn't Get

I love this essay, from Anthony Scaramucci, at WSJ, "The Entrepreneur’s Case for Trump":

Principled conservatives fail to understand the benefit of putting a right-leaning entrepreneur in the White House: https://t.co/sSFVN48o9O

— Anthony Scaramucci (@Scaramucci) May 16, 2016

Here are four things that the movement from the right to stop Donald Trump is missing:

• He has empathy. Mr. Trump is both a beneficiary and victim of the soundbite generation. He has leveraged social media to run a thrifty campaign, but critics have also latched onto one-liners rather than examine the whole of his record. You couldn’t find one person who knows Donald Trump who thinks he’s a racist. While his stance on immigration has often been expressed in brutish terms, the substance of his message—securing America’s borders and pausing the Syrian refugee program—is not crazy. Mr. Trump’s empathy, when voters see it properly expressed, will lead to victory in November and to policies fortified by longstanding conservative values.

• He is a pragmatic entrepreneur. What elitists misinterpret as uneven principles, entrepreneurs understand as adaptability. Whether you like or dislike Mr. Trump personally, you have to respect the business empire and brand he has built. He has always demonstrated an ability to take punches and get up off the mat while others without his fortitude and ingenuity would have crumbled. Most of his critics have never dared to step into the entrepreneurial arena where there exists the potential of embarrassing defeat. Mr. Trump would be the greatest pragmatist and deal maker Washington has ever seen.

• He is a team builder. I have spent several hours over the past few weeks with Mr. Trump, and I came away with the feeling he has the analytical depth to excel at the job of the presidency. Mr. Trump has put his ego aside to reinforce Corey Lewandowski’s formidable campaign team with a talented group of people: Gov. Chris Christie, Sen. Scott Brown, Paul Manafort, Rick Wiley and Steven Mnuchin, to name a few. Mr. Trump has shown a willingness to welcome Republican establishment figures into his coalition. The establishment should be constructive in return. If he were elected president, like any smart entrepreneur Mr. Trump would continue to surround himself with brilliant people.

• He can win. Pundits cherry-pick polls to suit their narrative, but the reality is that Mr. Trump is already in a good position even before turning his full attention to Hillary Clinton. Skeptics point to a recent CNN poll showing her with a double-digit lead, but a Rasmussen poll showing Mr. Trump leading by two points gets less attention. The electoral map is ultimately all that matters, and a Quinnipiac University poll released May 10 showed the two candidates basically in a dead heat in three crucial swing states. All of the momentum in the general election will swing to Mr. Trump, but establishment Republicans had better realize abstention would in effect be a vote to put Hillary Clinton in the White House...

RTWT.

Julianna Goldman Reports on #NeverTrump Republicans' Push for Independent Challenger to Donald Trump (VIDEO)

Basically, it's mostly a bunch of BS.

Via CBS This Morning:

Among White Men, Donald Trump Leads Hillary Clinton by Over 30 Points in Battleground States

Heh.

This is going to be great!

At Brookings:

In swing states, Donald Trump leads Hillary Clinton by over 30 points among white men: https://t.co/DZ5kPUaqkj pic.twitter.com/snY3YYcqaq

— Brookings (@BrookingsInst) May 16, 2016

Merciless: Little Is Off Limits as Donald Trump Plans Attacks on Hillary Clinton

This is going to be the freakin' best campaign ever. The Democrats are wiggin', heh.

At NYT (via Memeorandum):

Donald J. Trump plans to throw Bill Clinton’s infidelities in Hillary Clinton’s face on live television during the presidential debates this fall, questioning whether she enabled his behavior and sought to discredit the women involved.

Mr. Trump will try to hold her accountable for security lapses at the American consulate in Benghazi, Libya, and for the death of Ambassador J. Christopher Stevens there.

And he intends to portray Mrs. Clinton as fundamentally corrupt, invoking everything from her cattle futures trades in the late 1970s to the federal investigation into her email practices as secretary of state.

Drawing on psychological warfare tactics that Mr. Trump used to defeat “Lyin’ Ted” Cruz, “Little Marco” Rubio and “Low-Energy” Jeb Bush in the Republican primaries, the Trump campaign is mapping out character attacks on the Clintons to try to increase their negative poll ratings and bait them into making political mistakes, according to interviews with Mr. Trump and his advisers.

Another goal is to win over skeptical Republicans, since nothing unites the party quite like castigating the Clintons. Attacking them could also deflect attention from Mr. Trump’s vulnerabilities, such as his treatment of women, some Trump allies say.

For Mrs. Clinton, the coming battle is something of a paradox. She has decades of experience and qualifications, but it may not be merit that wins her the presidency — it may be how she handles the humiliations inflicted by Mr. Trump...

OMG, I can't wait!

This is going to be absolutely delectable, heh.

Keep reading.

Hillary's Weakness as a Candidate

Man, just listening to Cankles squawking on the campaign trail is enough to make you turn off the TV.

She's a terrible candidate!

At WaPo, "Even supporters agree: Clinton has weaknesses as a candidate. What can she do?":

Hillary Clinton’s declining personal image, ongoing battle to break free of the challenge from Sen. Bernie Sanders and struggle to adapt to an anti-establishment mood among voters this year have become caution signs for her campaign and the focus of new efforts to fortify her position as she prepares for a bruising general election.

More than a dozen Clinton ­allies identified weaknesses in her candidacy that may erode her prospects of defeating Donald Trump, including poor showings with young women, untrustworthiness, unlikability and a lackluster style on the stump. Supporters also worry that she is a conventional candidate in an unconventional election in which voters clearly favor renegades.

“I bring it down to one thing and one thing only, and that is likability,” said Peter Hart, a Democratic pollster who has conducted a series of focus groups for the Annenberg Public Policy Center at the University of Pennsylvania.

To counter these challenges, Clinton is relying primarily on the prospect that her likely Republican opponent’s weaknesses are even greater. But advisers also are working to soften her stiff public image by highlighting her compassion and to combat perceptions about trustworthiness and authenticity by playing up her problem-solving abilities.

“Hillary Clinton is in a stronger position than Donald Trump, but it will be competitive,” said Joel Benenson, Clinton’s senior strategist and pollster. “All these races are.”

None of these Democrats said they expected Clinton to lose — but many said she could. For the most part, it is her qualities as a candidate that keep her allies up at night, not her fitness to be president, which they categorically do not question. They also lament how exposed these flaws have become during a long primary contest against Sanders, who has profited from suspicion and dislike of Clinton among ranks she now must win over.

Although Clinton has never trailed Sanders in the delegate count and is all but assured of securing the nomination in June, she is widely expected to lose more Democratic primaries this month, which could amplify her weaknesses...

Keep reading.

I'm ready to roll in the general election, heh.

Hillary Clinton Apologizes to Laid-Off Miner for Comments on Putting 'Coal Companies Out of Business...' (VIDEO)

Here's the full video, at Yahoo, "Hillary Clinton apologizes to laid-off coal miner for comments."

And at WSJ, "Laid-Off Coal Worker Wants Explanation From Hillary Clinton":

WILLIAMSON, W.Va. – When Democratic front-runner Hillary Clinton said in March that she would put a lot of coal miners out of business, Bo Copley took it personally.

On Monday, the laid-off coal worker from this struggling Appalachian community came face to face with the former secretary of state and called her to account for her remarks.

“I just want to know how you can say you’re going to put a lot of coal miners out of jobs and then come in here and tell us how you’re going to be our friend,” Mr. Copley said.

During a roundtable discussion in a county that has been ravaged by coal-industry layoffs, Mrs. Clinton sought to make amends for remarks that sparked a furor in Appalachia. In March, she predicted that coal companies would be put out of business during a Clinton administration. She added that those workers should not be forgotten and spoke about her plans to boost the economy in coal country, but her comments landed with a thud here in Appalachia.

On Monday, the former secretary of state told Mr. Copley that she had misspoken. During a campaign stop in West Virginia, Mrs. Clinton said she meant to suggest that the area was on a path to continued job losses, but that she would act to boost the economy in this depressed region. In November, she released a $30 billion plan aimed at revitalizing communities dependent on coal production.

“What I said was totally out of context from what I meant,” Mrs. Clinton said. “It was a misstatement.”

Mr. Copley, who is 39, choked up as he showed Mrs. Clinton a picture of his family and spoke about other coal workers who have lost their livelihood.

“When you make comments like we’re going to put a lot of coal miners out jobs, these are the kind of people that you’re affecting,” he said.

Such an emotional and frank exchange is a rarity on the campaign trail, where candidates speak to friendly crowds and seldom are compelled to answer their detractors. Mrs. Clinton thanked Mr. Copley for raising the issue, saying “it’s important to put it out on the table.”

She added that regardless of whether West Virginia supports her, she would work to help the state, acknowledging that she faces a steep challenge in the Democratic primary there on May 10...

Still more.

Fear and Loathing on the 2016 Campaign Trail

Heh.

You gotta love this piece from Professor Larry Sabato, at Sabato's Crystal Ball, "The Fall Outlook: Fear and Loathing on the 2016 Campaign Trail":

Our views on the Electoral College outcome of a Clinton-Trump match-up haven’t changed since we published our “Trumpmare” map a month ago. If anything, we wonder whether our total of 347 EVs for Clinton to 191 EVs for Trump is too generous to the GOP.

Still, party polarization will probably help Trump. In the end, millions of Republicans will hold their nose and vote against Hillary and for Trump, just as millions of Democrats will put aside their hesitations about Clinton to stop Trump. Negative partisanship — casting a ballot mainly against the other party’s nominee rather than for your party’s candidate — will be all the rage in November. This will be especially likely after the vicious scorched-earth campaign on both sides that is coming. Someone could make a fortune at polling places selling clothespins for the nostrils.

However, we do recognize at least some upset potential in Trump. Third terms for the White House party are difficult to secure. President Obama is, more or less, at 50% job approval — pretty good, in fact, for this president. But an unexpected economic plunge, major terrorist success, international crisis, or serious scandal could subtract critical percentage points from Clinton. Voters are not inclined to give her the benefit of the doubt, so intertwined is her fate with Obama’s, and so fixed is her scarred image after decades in the hothouse of politics.

Just as important, Clinton can lose if she and her team smugly take victory for granted. You are halfway to losing when you think you can’t lose. Students of President Lyndon Johnson’s campaign against the doomed Barry Goldwater recognize that LBJ wouldn’t let his lieutenants rest on favorable polls; he ran a superb if brutal effort against Goldwater, and never let up. Much the same was true for President Richard Nixon in 1972. While he and his team schemed to insure George McGovern became his opponent, using dirty tricks against some of McGovern’s Democratic foes, Nixon had tasted defeat and near-defeat too often in his career to rest easy for even a day. Will overconfidence generated by favorable surveys cripple the Clinton campaign?

Trump has forced the political world to ingest a sizable dose of humility. Even many of political science’s much-vaunted statistical models that attempt to predict election results cannot account for a candidate like Trump — either because he overrides or suspends some of the normal “rules” of politics, or because he proves that parties do not always nominate electable candidates...

Interesting.

RTWT.

I think it's advantage Democrats, but I wouldn't count out Donald Trump for a second. It's going to be the most interesting presidential campaign in my lifetime.

Donald Trump Needs Ohio, Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin to Win the Electoral College Vote (VOTE)

The New York Times had this piece the other day, "Electoral Map Looks Challenging for Trump."

We're going to see lots of different "hot" takes on how the Electoral College will shape up for November, but for now just remember, it's a long way off until the general election. A lot can happen before then.

In any case, here's John King's argument, at CNN:

Republican Field Began with 17 Candidates, and Trump's Branding of His Opponents Helped Knock Them Out of the Race (VIDEO)

Heh.

This is killer, lol.