Tuesday, August 30, 2016

Is Monmouth University Poll an Outlier?

Monnouth's poll is here.

And the discussion at Politico, "Poll: Clinton leads Trump by 7 points."

At one point Monmouth had Clinton up by 12 points, and she's still up more than half that in this latest survey. Are they consistently oversampling Democrats? Is the poll a fraudulent outlier?

Check Hot Air for a nice analysis, "And now a new national poll shows the race tightening."

I think the race is tighter. Indeed, I think it's a dead heat national horse race at the moment, and lots of good solid polling organizations are generating those numbers. See from Sunday, "Latest Morning Consult Poll Has Hillary Clinton Up 43 to 40 Percent Over Donald Trump."

Yesterday the USC Dornsife/Los Angeles Times 'Daybreak' poll had Trump up over Clinton 44.0/43.6. It's a dead heat.

And even the latest UPI presidential tracker has Clinton up by just 3 points, "UPI/CVoter poll: Hillary Clinton regains lead over Donald Trump."

Of course, I remember what happened in 2012, and most of these polls may well be perfectly accurate. We'll see. As I always say. We'll see.