The Gun-Control Debate Could Break America (VIDEO)

From David French, at National Review, and with Michael Smerconish below:

I was just making this argument from @davidafrench to @SethAMandel and of course, David already wrote it and better than I ever could. https://t.co/EZPVRxEEsb

— Bethany S. Mandel (@bethanyshondark) February 25, 2018

Dana Loesch on 'This Week with George Stephanopoulos' (VIDEO)

At Twitchy, "Tough as NAILS: WATCH Dana Loesch SCHOOL George Stephanopoulos while BLASTING Sheriff Israel."

And at ABC News:

The Gun Debate: Another Shooting, But Different This Time (VIDEO)

At the New York Times, "Another Shooting, Another Gun Debate. Will the Outcome Be the Same?":

WASHINGTON — Around 2:30 p.m. on Valentine’s Day, President Trump was in the study off the Oval Office when John F. Kelly, his chief of staff, arrived with news of a school shooting in Florida. Mr. Trump shook his head, according to an aide, and muttered, “Again.”

Mark Barden was visiting a playground named for his 7-year-old son killed in 2012 at Sandy Hook Elementary School when a friend texted him: Be careful watching television. It’s happening. Again.

His senator, Christopher S. Murphy, Democrat of Connecticut, heard about the Florida shooting while he was on his way to the Senate floor and ripped up his speech to declare that through inaction, “we are responsible” for a mass atrocity. Again.

Representative Steve Scalise of Louisiana, the Republican whip and gun rights supporter who was himself grievously wounded last year when a man opened fire at a congressional baseball practice, huddled with colleagues on the House floor, reliving his horror. He knew what was coming: the activists who in his view would exploit tragedies like his to advance their anti-gun agenda. Again.

Within hours of the blood bath in Parkland, Fla., where 17 students and adults were killed on Feb. 14, the machinery of the American gun debate began grinding into motion.

By evening, one anti-gun group had mobilized and already sent out its first email: “RESOURCES + EXPERTS AVAILABLE: Florida High School Shooting.” Another group, Everytown for Gun Safety, founded and financed by Michael Bloomberg, the billionaire former New York mayor, activated the 1,500 members of its “survivors network,” and soon paid $230,000 for an advertisement in The New York Times shaming pro-gun lawmakers.

The National Rifle Association followed its own playbook: remaining silent for several days — a recognition that its message might be unwelcome during the initial burst of grief. But it used its NRATV channel to argue to its members that more guns in schools could prevent massacres. Sales of so-called bump stocks, which can make a semiautomatic weapon fire like an automatic, rose out of fear that they would be banned.

The battles waged after shootings in Newtown, Conn.; Orlando, Fla.; Las Vegas; and Sutherland Springs, Tex., began playing out all over, presumably heading toward the same stalemate.

But this time, a few things are different: The gun control side has developed a well-financed infrastructure that did not exist when Mr. Barden’s son Daniel and other schoolchildren were fatally shot at Sandy Hook. Within days of the Parkland shooting, one anti-gun group flooded Florida lawmakers with 2,500 calls and 1,700 emails opposing a bill allowing guns in schools.

Another difference is an unpredictable president who belongs to the National Rifle Association and promotes the N.R.A.-favored solution of arming trained teachers but has also embraced a couple of modest gun control measures opposed by gun rights groups.

And perhaps most dramatically, the We-Call-B.S. teenagers of Florida have injected a passionate new energy into a stale debate, organizing demonstrations, flooding the Statehouse in Tallahassee, composing songs, creating protest signs, confronting politicians and taking to TV airwaves with an intensity and composure and power rarely seen in recent years.

“The initial reaction was the same kind of sickened resignation — this is one of the worst ever, and this probably won’t be enough either,” said Matt Bennett, a founder of Third Way, a center-left advocacy group in Washington.

“What has changed since then is the kids and the extraordinary, galvanizing force they have become,” he added, interrupting an interview to take a call from his 17-year-old son, whose class was leaving school to march to the White House. “No one knows when we are going to hit a tipping point on this issue. We may have hit it — we don’t know. But if we did, it’s because of them.”

Still, veterans of both sides said the fundamental dynamics of Washington have not changed. If President Barack Obama could not pass gun control in a Democratic-majority Senate in 2013, months after Sandy Hook, they said, it was unlikely that Mr. Trump and a Republican-controlled Congress would.

The N.R.A. remains as potent as ever, and the debate resumes as Republicans head into a primary election season when many worry about challenges from the right. In December, the House passed a bill to bolster criminal background checks before gun purchases, but Republicans paired it with a provision requiring states to allow anyone to carry a concealed weapon if they are allowed to carry one in their home state, essentially making it a national right, anathema to Democrats, who have their own liberal base to satisfy.

Gun rights advocates also plan to focus on the failure of the F.B.I. to pursue tips about the suspected Florida gunman, arguing that blame should be on the federal authorities, not the firearms.

“We have seen breakdowns in existing laws,” Mr. Scalise said. “Before people talk about putting new laws on the books, when we find out that multiple laws on the books were not followed, that should be the first thing we figure out.”

The rapid mobilization of the anti-gun movement is a phenomenon that has evolved with the emergence of lobbying groups filled with veteran political operatives and growing lists of supporters. By now they are used to it...

More.

'Ratings Gold': Dana Loesch Slams News Networks' Exploitation of Mass Shootings (VIDEO)

Following up, "Dana Loesch Talks to Sean Hannity at CPAC 2018 (VIDEO)."

Here she is with CNN's Alisyn Camerota:

Dana Loesch Talks to Sean Hannity at CPAC 2018 (VIDEO)

Following up, "Dana Loesch at #CNNTownHall."

Parkland Sheriff's Deputy 'Never Went In' During Shooting (VIDEO)

Following-up from last night, "Broward County Deputy Sheriff Scot Peterson 'Never Went In' During Florida Shooting."

At CBS This Morning:

Broward County Deputy Sheriff Scot Peterson 'Never Went In' During Florida Shooting

This really makes me sad.

The school's "resource officer."

Here's the New York Times' headline, at Memeorandum, "Armed Sheriff's Deputy ‘Never Went In’ During Florida Shooting."

And at the South Florida Sun-Sentinel, "Stoneman Douglas cop resigns; sheriff says he should have 'killed the killer'."

Sheriff Scott Israel said school cop Scot Peterson should have “went in. Addressed the killer. Killed the killer.” - Sun Sentinel https://t.co/ZnWkX0iCTK

— Sun Sentinel (@SunSentinel) February 22, 2018

And more on Twitter:

The armed school resource officer at Marjorie Stoneman Douglas High School responded to the shooting BUT NEVER WENT IN for “upward or 4 minutes” while the gunmen killed people, said Sheriff Scott Israel.

— Marc Caputo (@MarcACaputo) February 22, 2018

The armed school resource officer at Marjorie Stoneman Douglas High School responded to the shooting BUT NEVER WENT IN for “upward or 4 minutes” while the gunmen killed people, said Sheriff Scott Israel.

— Marc Caputo (@MarcACaputo) February 22, 2018

Sheriff Israel sat on that stage and pointed fingers @DLoesch last night. If he had an ounce of integrity he'd resign immediately. https://t.co/TI1gsBETY2

— Jesse Kelly® (@JesseKellyDC) February 22, 2018

Miami Herald: Parkland school cop 'never went in' during the shooting. There were other failures, too https://t.co/Z1Hkr4ULV8

— Jake Tapper (@jaketapper) February 23, 2018

This is horrific. “In November, a tipster called BSO to say Cruz ‘could be a school shooter in the making’ but deputies did not write up a report on that warning. It came just weeks after a relative called urging BSO to seize his weapons.” https://t.co/3gtwGPl6bo

— Jake Tapper (@jaketapper) February 23, 2018

FBI tipped off about Cruz, his guns, instability, DESIRE TO KILL PEOPLE in school shooting
-DID NOTHING

Deputies called to Cruz’s home 39x
-DID NOTHING

On-site Officer heard gunshots
-DID NOTHING@DLoesch pressed Sheriff Israel on inaction
-He deflected
-Audience jeered, booed pic.twitter.com/jdxtGVCput

— Chet Cannon (@Chet_Cannon) February 23, 2018

You didn’t stand up for them when they repeatedly reported that this murderer was threatening them in messages that violated FL law, his parents reported he “held a gun to others’ heads;” 39 visits and 2 FBI reports and NOTHING. It’s literally your job. Not mine. https://t.co/KjQhfvQc2N

— Dana Loesch (@DLoesch) February 23, 2018

Additionally, @browardsheriff sat on that stage with me last night fully aware that his deputy had been outside and armed while this madman had four minutes to massacre — and said NOTHING.

— Dana Loesch (@DLoesch) February 23, 2018

Were there any adults who didn’t fail?

The FBI failed.

Local police failed.

The security officer failed.

The people who set up the video feed failed.

Seventeen lives never should have been lost. https://t.co/1aYZUi6wU5

— Ari Fleischer (@AriFleischer) February 23, 2018

An Epidemic of Dishonesty on the Right

I don't read National Review, but I swear this is good. I hate conspiracy theories. I don't, for example, read Gateway Pundit, and I quit watching cable news, both CNN and Fox. I just can't take politics anymore, which is bad, because I teach this stuff.

In any case, it's Kevin Williamson:

An Epidemic of Dishonesty on the Right https://t.co/6bpQ6lD2GC pic.twitter.com/EBplElZ2BE

— National Review (@NRO) February 22, 2018

Dana Loesch at #CNNTownHall

At CNN, "NRA spokesperson: 'Insane monster' shouldn't have been able to get firearm."

And at the Guardian U.K., "Who is Dana Loesch? The NRA's chosen defender after the Florida shooting."

West Boca High School Students March to Protest Gun Violence (VIDEO)

At the South Florida Sun-Sentinel, "Student walkouts underway in push for gun law changes and school safety."

Nikolas Cruz Was Reported Over 30 Times (VIDEO)

Here's Dana Loesch, for the N.R.A.:



And see, "Warning signs in Florida school shooting have officials taking a hard look at procedures."

The Dark Stain of American Gun Exceptionalism

Boy, each new shooting brings out more and more of the worst people. And even military personnel can go batshit crazy on stuff like this.

Freaky.

At Task & Purpose, "The View From Afghanistan: The Dark Stain of American Gun Exceptionalism."

The View From Afghanistan: The Dark Stain Of American Gun Exceptionalism (Jared Keller / Task & Purpose)https://t.co/T21r1MrogPhttps://t.co/QstzI32Z8D

— memeorandum (@memeorandum) February 21, 2018

Die-Hards Hang On in the Florida Keys

From Molly Hennessy-Fiske‏, at LAT, "The incredible stories of the die-hards who looked Irma in the face — and stayed":

As Hurricane Irma barreled into Key West, Peter Borch stood atop the oldest guesthouse in the city, a converted Victorian mansion built in 1880, to film the unfolding mayhem.

Storm gusts bent nearby palm trees nearly in half, stripping and scattering fronds down empty streets. The horizon was nearly obscured by a white wall of surf roaring in.

“The eyewall is about to hit here in Key West. No power. Trees down. No flooding,” Borch, 31, shouted to be heard over the wind.

Then he shifted focus to a porch below, where an older man sat, shirtless, sipping coffee from a mug, oblivious to the onslaught.

From initial reports Sunday, it appeared that the Florida Keys had taken a pounding but dodged the sort of catastrophic disaster that had been widely expected as Irma roared north out of the Caribbean. But there were reports of missing people, and fears for what might be found in the light of day on Monday.

Keys residents are a hardy, proudly eccentric bunch, accustomed to surviving storms. Many refused to evacuate ahead of Hurricane Irma, including residents at the tip of the island chain in Key West known as conchs. The keeper of Ernest Hemingway’s historic home stayed put to care for his brood of six-toed cats. Watering holes like the Blue Macaw stayed open, offering a drink special called the “Bloody Irma” (five shots of Tito’s vodka). But as the storm descended Sunday, some denizens reconsidered and headed for shelters of last resort like a school on Sugarloaf Key. Others hunkered down, set up live feeds and promised to stay in touch.

One holdout filmed himself nearly getting washed away by storm surf striking the red and yellow buoy at the southernmost point of U.S. Route 1. Florida snowbirds and other island regulars posted queries online: How were the federally protected Key deer faring? Key West’s roaming roosters? Initial reports were good.

Then the power went out, cell service ceased and with it, the live feeds. Only those with satellite phones and land lines could stay in touch with the outside world.

Those at the Sugarloaf School were among the lucky few with a satellite phone, and used it to report that those sheltering there had survived the storm unscathed. Volunteer rescuers used an app on their cellphones called Zello to report what else they were seeing.

“I’m in Key West and we’re all right down here. I never do run from a storm,” said a man who identified himself as P.J.

Judy Cox searched online for signs of her friend, Borch, one of several Key West neighbors who decided to weather the storm.

She last heard from him at 9 a.m., about an hour after he posted his last video. She said he told her “it was windy and not a lot of flooding. Some trees down and no power since last night.”

Now, she was worried.

She had trouble reaching another friend, a boat captain, who was weathering the storm by Schooner Wharf, she said.

“Last I heard he was on his boat,” Cox said...

More.

Nearly 60 Percent of Florida Without Power as #Irma Moves North

At WSJ, "Irma Moves North, Leaves Nearly 60% of Florida Without Power."

Also, "Millions Without Power in Florida After Irma Lashing":

MIAMI — Millions are without power in Florida a day after Hurricane Irma swept through, bringing whipping winds, drenching rains, and coastal flooding to much of the state.

Early reports suggested Florida may have dodged the worst fears of the potential damage that the powerful hurricane could have delivered to the state of 20.6 million people. By early Monday Irma had weakened to a tropical storm as it moved over land on a path toward Georgia, but flooding worries remained in northern cities like Jacksonville.

About 62% of the state was without power—or 6.2 million customers—Monday morning, and cleanup crews were beginning to remove downed trees from roads while law-enforcement authorities escorted utility trucks to get the lights back on.

“Unfortunately we’ve got a lot of damage in our state,” Gov. Rick Scott said, speaking on CBS early Monday.

Hurricane Irma made landfall in the Florida Keys Sunday morning as a Category 4 storm, before hitting Marco Island as it headed north toward Tampa Bay. It was the second Category 4 hurricane of the season to hit the U.S., after Hurricane Harvey hammered the Texas coast last month, flooding Houston and causing at least 50 deaths. Lixion Avila, senior specialist with the National Hurricane Center, said it is extremely rare to have two Category 4 storms hit in one season.

Unlike Harvey, which lingered for days while producing historic rainfall, Irma swept through, climbing up much of Florida’s Gulf Coast in about a day. While there were pre-storm worries that Irma could be the worst natural disaster on record, quick post-storm assessments suggested losses would be far below early fears.

On Monday morning, the remnants of Irma had cleared Miami. The sun emerged from the clouds, and a light breeze blew. Though the storm battered the region, the extent of the damage will become clear only after assessment teams conduct their surveys.

In the Brickell financial district downtown, waters that had risen 3 feet or more Sunday had retreated, leaving the ground caked with mud and crowded with debris. Toppled trees and downed power lines littered neighborhoods...

More at that top link.

Hurricane Irma Makes Landfall in Florida Keys (VIDEO)

At WSJ, "Hurricane Irma Makes Landfall Over Florida Keys (UPDATES)."

And, "Irma Leaves Battered Caribbean in Its Wake":

Hurricane Irma left widespread human and economic havoc in a string of tourism dependent Caribbean islands as the storm pulsed into Florida on Sunday.

Irma departed the last of those islands, Cuba, by Sunday morning after scraping along its northern coast. Buildings collapsed, trees and power lines tumbled, and roofs flew away in the 130-mile-per-hour winds.

Rain and seawater flooded towns and cities, including the colonial center of Havana, the country’s capital and a key tourist magnet. Communications were cut off, power was down and infrastructure was damaged in some affected parts of the island.

No deaths have yet been reported in Cuba, as authorities evacuated thousands of residents and tourists ahead of Irma´s arrival. But the hurricane killed at least 22 others across the northern Caribbean in four days of torment.

The storm’s damage comes just a few months before the beginning of the winter tourism season, which last year pumped $56 billion into the regional economy and provided 725,000 jobs, according to the World Travel and Tourism Council, an international industry group.

But Irma affected only a portion of the Caribbean. And while severe on some islands, the storm’s destruction was negligible in others, according to an early assessment by the Caribbean Tourism Organization.

Damage so far appears to have been heaviest in St. Martin’s and nearby islands in the U.S. and British Virgin Islands. And the storm’s impact still hasn’t been fully assessed in Cuba. Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic seem to largely have been spared.

“For the countries that are badly affected, it will take some time to get back on their feet,” Hugh Riley, an official with Caribbean Tourism Organization, said early Sunday.

The affected islands caught a break Saturday when Hurricane Jose, a Category 4 storm that had been on track to follow Irma’s path, turned to the north without making a Caribbean landfall.

Irma began its rampage far to the east of Cuba on Wednesday, tearing in the small two-island nation of Antigua and Barbuda in the northern Leeward Islands. Antigua, the larger of the two, was mostly spared by the storm...

More.

Jennifer Delacruz Sunday Forecast

Same thing.

I went to post this last night but the clip wasn't available yet.

I sure do love Ms. Jennifer, though. She's so sweet and worth the wait.

At ABC News 10 San Diego:

Professor Caroline Heldman on President Trump's Handling of Hurricanes (VIDEO)

She appeared yesterday at CBS News 2 Los Angeles:

Irma's Approach Shifts to Gulf Coast (VIDEO)

At WSJ, "Irma’s Approach Shifts to Gulf Coast, Keeps Florida on Edge":

MIAMI — After days of preparation, Hurricane Irma—one of the most powerful storms to cross the Atlantic—is forecast to hit the Florida Keys around daybreak Sunday before continuing on a path that threatens catastrophic flooding along Florida’s Gulf Coast.

Deadly storm surges could inundate parts of the state’s southwest coast with up to 15 feet of water, the National Hurricane Center said, and much of the state will see “life-threatening wind impacts” regardless of the hurricane’s exact path.

Florida Gov. Rick Scott hammered home the danger from rising waters Saturday. “There’s a serious threat of significant storm surge flooding along the entire west coast of Florida” he said. “Think about that: 15 feet is devastating and will cover your house.”

The state of 20.6 million people has been readying itself for Irma as the storm barreled into the Caribbean, killing at least 22 people and battering islands with winds in excess of 150 miles per hour. Now Irma is headed for the U.S. mainland as a Category 3 storm that is expected to pick up strength overnight as it moves away from Cuba into warm open water.

Irma would bring a punishing cocktail of destructive winds, major storm surge, torrential rains, possible tornadoes and widespread power outages, said Alan Albanese, senior meteorologist for the National Weather Service in Key West.

“This is a very serious threat, potentially catastrophic,” he said. “A lot of people down here in the Keys have not experienced anything with the potential this system has.”

Florida officials have warned that Irma could be worse than Hurricane Andrew, the Category 5 storm that devastated South Florida 25 years ago. Andrew killed 61 people in the U.S. and caused nearly $48 billion in economic damage in 2017 dollars, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration—the costliest storm in U.S. history until Hurricane Katrina in 2005.

Parts of Florida were experiencing tropical-storm force winds Saturday evening. “We have been very aggressive in our preparation for this storm and now it’s upon us,” Mr. Scott said. “Every Floridian should take this seriously and be aggressive to protect their family.”

“The storm surge will rush in and it could kill you,” he said.

More than 76,000 electricity customers had lost power by early Saturday evening, mostly in Miami-Dade and Broward counties, a tiny fraction of the state’s total, according to the Florida Division of Emergency Management. The number is expected to grow.

Hurricane Irma’s westward shift toward the Gulf Coast brought some sense of relief to cities like Miami and Fort Lauderdale but heightened fears of catastrophic flooding on Florida’s Gulf Coast. The hurricane center warns the storm surge could reach 10 to 15 feet above ground from Captiva Island, west of Fort Myers, to the southern tip of the Florida peninsula. That warning is an increase from the 8-to-12-foot range forecast Friday night.

Residents on the state’s west coast quickly shifted plans and bunkered down.

Wrede McCollum, who lives on Pine Island off Florida’s southwest coast, had planned to stay at a friend’s house—despite a mandatory evacuation order—because of reports of log-jammed highways and packed shelters. But after seeing the storm’s projected westward turn, Mr. McCollum and his friends decided to go to a shelter.

“The current track seems headed right for St. James City,” where he lives, he said by text. “Jangling a few nerves here.”

Lisa Tilson, a Boca Raton native, has been through many hurricanes but she worried about this one. She drove to her mother’s house in Sun City Center, a retirement community near Tampa on the Gulf Coast, only to find herself more squarely in Irma’s path. The family rushed to protect the home.

As the storm approached Saturday afternoon, Ms. Tilson planned to stay in one hallway with her daughters, while her mother, her mother’s partner and Ms. Tilson’s 80-year-old aunt stay in another, she said. “That’s where we are going to ride it out,” she said. “I’ve had a weird feeling in my stomach about this storm since I first heard about it.”

More than 6.3 million Florida residents, about 30% of the total, have been told to leave their homes, state officials say. Evacuations have led to long lines at gas stations, fuel shortages, traffic jams and overrun hotel rooms.

More than 70,000 Floridians have taken refuge in more than 385 shelters around the state...

More.

Irma’s Surge Poses Big Risk to Coast

Oh boy, this one's a doozy.

At WSJ, "Hurricane Irma’s Surge Poses Major Risk to Florida":

The size of this monster...holy hell. pic.twitter.com/naM5tQpXZC

— Alexis In NH (@AlexisinNH) September 9, 2017

Hurricane Irma, the most powerful storm to take aim at Florida in decades, is on a path that presents the worst-case scenario for deadly storm surges and powerful winds when it strikes the state Sunday, threatening millions of homes and businesses.

Irma is a massive storm, covering an area more than double the size of Florida, and generating sustained winds of more than 150 miles an hour. It has already killed more than 20 people after flattening the Caribbean islands of St. Martin and Barbuda as it arced north toward Florida. The hurricane’s impact could reach as far north as Indiana and Illinois, forecasters say, affecting about 50 million people.

Long lines of cars clogged Florida’s highways after authorities and forecasters implored the state’s 20.6 million people to leave low-lying coastal lands expected to be inundated by hurricane-driven seawater.

Storm surges, one of the most deadly threats of Hurricane Irma, are forecast to be 9 feet to 20 feet high, depending on whether the storm hits the peninsula from the Atlantic on the east or the shallower Gulf of Mexico to the west.

“If it comes in from the Gulf side, Tampa Bay could just get hammered and that really is one of the big catastrophic events we have been worried about for some time,” said Kyle Mandli, assistant professor of mathematics at Columbia University.

But Mr. Mandli warns the entire state could remain at risk if the hurricane tracks up the middle of the state and causes storm surges on both coasts, though those would probably not be as high.

With Irma now projected to make landfall in the Florida Keys about daybreak Sunday, weather experts say the flooding could begin hours earlier because surges from a hurricane start to hit land in advance of the storm’s center. The surge peaks as the hurricane eyewall crosses onto land, said Robert Bea, professor emeritus at the University of California’s Center for Catastrophic Risk Management. “We’re talking several hours of surge,” Mr. Bea said.

Storm surges, created when the high wind of a hurricane forces ocean waters onshore, account for half of the deaths and most of the destruction caused by the majority of hurricanes, weather experts say.

Miami-Dade County Mayor Carlos Gimenez cited a possible life-threatening storm surge when he expanded the county’s evacuation zone on Thursday, now affecting more 650,000 residents.

Much of the estimated $62 billion in U.S. damage from superstorm Sandy in 2012 was caused by the storm surge that slammed the Eastern seaboard, according to an analysis by the U.S. Geological Survey.  Storm surge was cited by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration as the major cause of the $75 billion in destruction along the Gulf Coast from 2005’s Katrina, which leveled beachfront communities in Mississippi and inundated the city of New Orleans.

On Florida’s coasts, which will face the brunt of the Category 4 hurricane’s destructive force, about 3.5 million residential and commercial properties are at risk of storm-surge damage and almost 8.5 million properties are at risk of wind damage, according to data provider CoreLogic .

The last Florida storm that was the size of Hurricane Irma, which was downgraded to Category 4 from Category 5 on Friday, was Hurricane Andrew in 1992. That storm was originally classified as Category 4 but was reclassified in 2002 to a Category 5.

Catastrophe-modeling firm Karen Clark & Co. said a repeat of Hurricane Andrew on the same path as in 1992 would cause $50 billion in insured losses. The same storm directly hitting Miami today would cause more than $200 billion in losses, the firm said.


Miami, however, is protected by a rapid drop offshore thanks to the continental shelf, which is unlike Florida’s mostly shallow Gulf of Mexico coast. As a result, the surge hitting Miami from a Category 4 storm like Irma is expected to total up to 9 feet, compared with as high as 20 feet if it were to hit more along the Gulf Coast, according to NOAA.

The highest waves are typically centered on the leading right side of the storm, where counterclockwise winds in the Northern Hemisphere push the bulk of a hurricane’s destructive force. The surge waves are made even higher when they travel across shallow coastal waters, said Robert Bohlin, a meteorologist with the Central Pacific Hurricane Center in Honolulu.

Historically, the biggest storm surges in U.S. history have taken place in shallow Gulf waters. Hurricane Katrina in 2005 produced the nation’s highest recorded surge of 27.8 feet at Pass Christian, Miss. At least 1,500 people died in Katrina—many from the surge—and entire beachfront neighborhoods were washed away by the waves, NOAA officials said.

But Irma is forecast to take such an unusual track—essentially up the length of the Sunshine State—that hurricane experts aren’t exactly sure how the surge pattern will play out. If it shifts slightly to the west, much higher surge could inundate parts of Florida’s Gulf Coast, said Columbia’s Mr. Mandli.

“Even a shift of a few kilometers could be the difference between a huge disaster and something more manageable,” Mr. Mandli said.

Damage from a storm surge is considered flooding, which isn’t covered by standard homeowners insurance policies. Flood damage is largely covered by the federal government’s National Flood Insurance Program, which provides homeowners up to $250,000 to repair a home and $100,000 for personal possessions.

Homeowners in high-risk flood zones are required by their mortgage providers to buy flood insurance, but consumers outside those areas often forgo the coverage.

Businesses can buy federal flood insurance, which covers up to $500,000 for damage to a building and $500,000 for its contents. Commercial-property insurance for large businesses often includes flood coverage...

Still more.

Officials Urge Residents in Florida Keys to Evacuate (VIDEO)

These folks are pretty emphatic: If you don't get out now, we can't help you later. Please leave.

Oh boy, what a nightmare.

Below, at CBS News 4 Miami.

And see the Miami Herald, "‘Unprecedented’ evacuations set as Irma takes direct aim at South Florida."