Showing posts with label Jeb Bush. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Jeb Bush. Show all posts

Monday, September 7, 2015

Worlds Collide! Nobel Prize-Winning Economist Paul Krugman Endorses Donald Trump's Economics!

Stranger things have happened, I suppose.

But this is hilarious!

Paul Krugman likes Donald Trump. He really likes him!

At the New York Times, "Trump Is Right on Economics" (via Memeorandum):
So Jeb Bush is finally going after Donald Trump. Over the past couple of weeks the man who was supposed to be the front-runner has made a series of attacks on the man who is. Strange to say, however, Mr. Bush hasn’t focused on what’s truly vicious and absurd — viciously absurd? — about Mr. Trump’s platform, his implicit racism and his insistence that he would somehow round up 11 million undocumented immigrants and remove them from our soil.

Instead, Mr. Bush has chosen to attack Mr. Trump as a false conservative, a proposition that is supposedly demonstrated by his deviations from current Republican economic orthodoxy: his willingness to raise taxes on the rich, his positive words about universal health care. And that tells you a lot about the dire state of the G.O.P. For the issues the Bush campaign is using to attack its unexpected nemesis are precisely the issues on which Mr. Trump happens to be right, and the Republican establishment has been proved utterly wrong.

To see what I mean, consider what was at stake in the last presidential election, and how things turned out after Mitt Romney lost.
More at the link.

Krugman slams Trump as racist and then endorses his policies in the next breath! "World's Are Colliding!"

PREVIOUSLY: "The Political Establishment's Terrified by Donald Trump's 'Tangible American Nationalism'."

Saturday, September 5, 2015

The Political Establishment's Terrified by Donald Trump's 'Tangible American Nationalism'

I don't know if Noah Rothman's a neoconservative, despite his recent move over to Commentary Magazine, the bastion of neocon opinion and onetime home for writers such as Norman Podhoretz, Irving Kristol, and Nathan Glazer, among others. Norman's son John is the current editor at the magazine.

Rothman started slamming Donald Trump earlier this summer, almost as soon as the frontrunner uttered his words about Mexican illegal alien criminals and rapists. And he's been on a campaign against Trump at the magazine ever since.


I'm reminded of all this by Mark Ellis's post at Pajamas, "Trump for Neocons."

It turns out that the Weekly Standard, the other major neoconservative opinion magazine, founded by William Kristol, is out with a new issue offering all kinds of coverage of the "Donald Trump Phenomenon," with much of it glowing. Even William Kristol acknowledges the tipping-point significance of the Trump campaign, even if he can't fully wrap his arms around it. See, "Up from Trumpism."

Ellis at Pajamas is impressed with the wall-to-wall Trump coverage at the new Weekly Standard, which includes an essay by Christopher Caldwell, "What’s the Deal with Trump?" But see the particularly good piece from Julius Krein, "Traitor to His Class":

The Trump Phenomenon photo COKk9RCWwAQPKba_zpsayjwwyyf.jpg
Donald Trump is not a serious candidate. Donald Trump is not a serious man. The truth of these statements is supposed to be self-evident. But one begins to wonder, are they true?

Trump’s popularity, while beyond doubt, is treated not as a legitimate expression of popular will but as a mass psychosis to be diagnosed. It would seem to be the duty of every American pundit today to explain the inexplicable and problematic rise of Donald Trump. The critical question, however, is not the source of Trump’s popularity but rather the reason his popularity is so shocking to our political culture. Perhaps Trump’s candidacy threatens a larger consensus that governs our political and social life, and perhaps his popularity signifies a profound challenge to elite opinion.

Why is Donald Trump so popular? Explanations range from mere celebrity, to his adoption of extreme positions to capture the most ideologically intense voters, to his explosive rhetoric. These explanations are not entirely wrong, but neither are they entirely right.

To begin with, his positions, as Josh Barro has written in the New York Times, are rather moderate. As Barro points out, Trump is willing to contemplate tax increases to achieve spending cuts. He supports some exceptions to abortion bans and has gone so far as to defend funding Planned Parenthood. He has called for protective tariffs, a position heretical for Republicans, who are typically free traders. Although opposed to Obamacare, he has asserted that single-payer health care works in other countries. Even on the issue of immigration, despite his frequently strident rhetoric, his positions are neither unique—securing the border with some kind of wall is a fairly standard Republican plank by now—nor especially rigid.

With respect to his rhetoric, whether one characterizes his delivery as candid or rude, it is hard to ascribe his popularity to colorful invective alone. Chris Christie, who never misses an opportunity to harangue an opponent, languishes near the bottom of the polls. Or ask Rick Santorum, as well as Mitt “47 percent” Romney, whether outrageous comments offer an infallible way to win friends and influence voters. Trump’s outrĂ© style, like his celebrity, helps him gain attention but just as certainly fails to explain his frontrunner status.

Most candidates seek to define themselves by their policies and platforms. What differentiates Trump is not what he says, or how he says it, but why he says it. The unifying thread running through his seemingly incoherent policies, what defines him as a candidate and forms the essence of his appeal, is that he seeks to speak for America. He speaks, that is, not for America as an abstraction but for real, living Americans and for their interests as distinct from those of people in other places. He does not apologize for having interests as an American, and he does not apologize for demanding that the American government vigorously prosecute those interests.

What Trump offers is permission to conceive of an American interest as a national interest separate from the “international community” and permission to wish to see that interest triumph. What makes him popular on immigration is not how extreme his policies are, but the emphasis he puts on the interests of Americans rather than everyone else. His slogan is “Make America Great Again,” and he is not ashamed of the fact that this means making it better than other places, perhaps even at their expense.

His least practical suggestion—making Mexico pay for the border wall—is precisely the most significant: It shows that a President Trump would be willing to take something from someone else in order to give it to the American people. Whether he could achieve this is of secondary importance; the fact that he is willing to say it is everything. Nothing is more terrifying to the business and donor class—as well as the media and the entire elite—than Trump’s embrace of a tangible American nationalism. The fact that Trump should by all rights be a member of this class and is in fact a traitor to it makes him all the more attractive to his supporters and all the more baffling to pundits...
Still more.

And note one more thing about the Bill Kristol piece cited above: He admits that Trump could end up being a flash-in-the-pan, and he notes, "His fall may be sudden or protracted, complete or partial. Conceivably he won’t fall at all."

What's Fueling Donald Trump's Surge

Well, by the look of the New York Times' website, you'd think The Donald was popping Viagra to keep up the pace, heh.

See, "Donald Trump's Staying Power."

Seriously, though. The immigration issue's got to be the biggest catalyst for his campaign. Here, "YouGov Poll: 64 Percent Want to Build Security Fence on Mexican Border."

BONUS: From Victor Davis Hanson, at Pajamas, "How Illegal Immigration Finally Turned Off the Public":
If there were not a Donald Trump, he would likely have had to have been invented.
 photo 49a771e7-3bc1-49c1-9e18-a941504323fb_zpsz7gwfqud.png

'Illegals Go Home' Poster Lands North Carolina High School Teacher in Hot Water

Uh oh.

Not the kinda class project you're supposed to assign these days. In Mexifornia, that teacher'd be run out of town on a rail, if not lynched outright on the school grounds.

Dang.

At the Asheville Citizen‑Times, "Buncombe parents demand answers over anti-immigrant signs."

And at Truth Revolt, "Student-Made 'Illegals Go Home' Sign Lands Civics Teacher in Hot Water."

Friday, September 4, 2015

Laughable New York Times Reporting on 'G.O.P Talk' on Illegal Immigration (Screen Shot)

Heh, you can see how the Old Gray Lady has juxtaposed these two articles on illegal immigration and the G.O.P. at the webpage.

Utterly laughable.

 photo 7c7754d2-8bf2-4755-9e76-9b1585ebce38_zpsrmjoprah.png

On the one hand, you've got that top story on Iowans allegedly wavering on robust border security, with the caption reading, "Farms and factories in eastern Iowa have long been a draw for immigrants, and many argue that a one-size-fits-all approach to immigration reform might not work." The implication, of course, is that all this bluster from Donald Trump and conservatives about the illegal onslaught is just so much more racist nativism. You know, down home folks in Iowa know better, and if you want our vote you better jettison all those bloviating "one-size-fits-all" policies. Indeed, the smaller print at the photo caption reads, "“I think there is less prejudice now that more of the Hispanics have come into the job market, the schools, and everything,” Michelle Coghill of Blue Grass, Iowa, said."

And then below that is the chaser, some catnip for collectivist leftists rubbing their hand together while attacking Republicans for the "Trumpification" of the G.O.P. Note the acid caption slamming the frontrunner, "Many think that Donald J. Trump’s harsh manner and attacks are endangering efforts to compete in the general election." How stupid can you be? I mean, the New York Times is now the mouthpiece for the Republican National Committee? You know, the G.O.P establishment surely knows what it takes to win the general election, right? Donald Trump and his supporters are just a bunch of ignorant flyover bigots.

The obvious and hilarious response is to highlight those inconvenient YouGov poll findings out today, showing almost two-thirds of Americans supporting a security wall along the Mexican border. Seriously, it's like Pinch Sulzberger and his "elite" reporters are just a tad bit out of step with public opinion.

And FWIW, go right to the reports at the Times, via Google, "Iowa Questions G.O.P. Talk on Immigration," and "Republican Donors Puzzle Over How to Stop Trump."

Truly ridiculous.

YouGov Poll: 64 Percent Want to Build Security Fence on Mexican Border

Well, same thing, it's YouGov, which is an Internet panel poll. I don't trust 'em. Still, it's just obvious that the illegal immigration issue has the public's blood boiling. And Donald Trump just talking about it makes the issue resonate even more. On top of that is the left's murderous sanctuary city policies. This is getting to be the most amazing primary season ever.

At YouGov, "Build a fence with Mexico, not Canada."

And at Hot Air, "YouGov poll: 64% want a border fence with Mexico — including pluralities of Dems, blacks, and Hispanics."

Gallup: Trump Gains 16 Points in Net Favorability in Last Two Weeks

I think folks are starting to see Trump as a likely and credible GOP nominee.

From the Gallup Poll, "Trump's Image Up Sharply Among Republicans." (Via Memeorandum.)

And ICYMI, "Charles Krauthammer and Megyn Kelly Talk About Elections, Primaries, and Republicans."

Charles Krauthammer and Megyn Kelly Talk About Elections, Primaries, and Republicans

This is a great discussion.

And Krauthammer absolutely nails it on Donald Trump's decision to sign the Republican Party loyalty pledge.

WATCH: "Krauthammer explains why Trump is focusing on Bush."

The Populist Revolt Against Brain-Dead Politics

A great post, from Larry Sabato, at Sabato's Crystal Ball.

Thursday, September 3, 2015

Whoa! Trump Hits 30 Percent in Latest Monmouth University Poll (VIDEO)

It's a traditional telephone poll, not an Internet panel, so this is pretty important.

Here's the survey from Monmouth, "NATIONAL: Trump Holds Lead, Carson 2nd":

West Long Branch, NJ – Donald Trump has increased his GOP vote share since last month’sdebate. The latest Monmouth University Poll of Republican voters nationwide also finds Ben Carson moving into second place, Jeb Bush slipping to third, and Scott Walker fading into the background. The poll also tested Trump directly against nine opponents in head-to-head match-ups and found that only Carson is able to get the better of him.

When Republicans and Republican-leaning voters are asked who they would support for the GOP nomination for president, Donald Trump leads the pack at 30%, which is up 4 points from early August before the first debate. Ben Carson (18%) has increased his vote share by 13 points and now holds second place. Jeb Bush (8%) has dropped by 4 points and now stands in a tie for third with Ted Cruz (8%). Following behind are Marco Rubio (5%), Carly Fiorina (4%), and Mike Huckabee (4%).

Scott Walker (3%), who held third place in Monmouth’s August poll, has dropped 8 points since then. Chris Christie, John Kasich, and Rand Paul each get 2%. The remaining six candidates included in the poll score no higher than 1% each.

“None of the establishment candidates is having any success in getting an anti-Trump vote to coalesce around them. In fact, any attempt to take on Trump directly only seems to make him stronger,” said Patrick Murray, director of the independent Monmouth University Polling Institute in West Long Branch, NJ.

The Monmouth University Poll tested the strength of Donald Trump’s support by presenting Republican voters with nine hypothetical head-to-head match-ups. Trump tops the field in all but one of those contests. If it came down to just two candidates, Trump beats the putative establishment favoriteJeb Bush by a 56% to 37% margin. Trump also gets the better of Chris Christie (63% to 30%), John Kasich (62% to 29%), Rand Paul (60% to 27%), Scott Walker (53% to 38%), Marco Rubio (52% to 38%), Carly Fiorina (50% to 37%), and Ted Cruz (48% to 41%). The only candidate who is able to take on The Donald and win is Ben Carson, who gets 55% support to 36% for Trump in a hypothetical matchup.“

“The fact that the only one who can challenge Trump is the only other candidate who has never held or run for elected office speaks volumes to the low regard GOP voters have for the establishment,” said Murray.

By a more than 2-to-1 margin, Republican voters nationwide say the country needs a president from outside government who can bring a new approach to Washington (67%) rather than someone with government experience who knows how to get things done (26%).

Murray added, “Conservative activists believe the Republican Party has abandoned its principles. Moderates feel their leadership is ineffective. So Republican voters have created their own job description for the next nominee - Wanted: Someone who can shake up Washington; No elected officials need apply.”
Keep reading.

Why America Loves Donald Trump and Why Democrats Are Dumbstruck

From Tomi Lahren, "Tomi's Final Thoughts: Why America Loves Trump Part I," and "Tomi's Final Thoughts: America Loves Trump & Dems are Confused."

Thursday, August 13, 2015

The Democrats' Great Betrayal on Iraq

At FrontPage Magazine:

Editor's note: GOP presidential primary candidate Jeb Bush is once again boldly telling the truth about the Iraq War and putting the focus on those who sabotaged it: President Obama, Hillary Clinton and the Democratic Party. In recent remarks at the Ronald Reagan Presidential Library, Bush not only highlighted the Democrats' indefensible abandonment of a once-stabilized Iraq, but explained how this disastrous decision gave rise to a new, formidable terror threat: The Islamic State. In light of Bush's statements, Frontpage is publishing David Horowitz's introduction to his book "The Black Book of the American Left, Vol. III: The Great Betrayal," which lays out the true history of the Iraq War and the Democrats' policy of defeat. Read the introduction below.

*****

The Great Betrayal is the third volume of my collected writings that make up The Black Book of the American Left. Its chapters focus on events beginning with the Islamic attacks of 9/11 and culminating in the Iraq War. They describe what can now be seen as a tragic turn in our nation’s history that has already profoundly and adversely affected its future.

The effort to remove the Saddam regime in Iraq by force was initially supported by both major political parties. But in only the third month of fighting the Democratic Party turned against the war it had authorized for reasons unrelated to events on the battle- field or changes in policy. This political division over the war fractured the home front with crippling implications for the war effort itself and, beyond that, America’s efforts to curtail the terrorist activities of other regimes in the Middle East, most pointedly Syria and Iran. The internal divisions were greater than any the nation had experienced since the Civil War, and the betrayal by the Democrats of a war policy they had supported was without precedent in the history of America’s wars overseas.

The internal divisions at the end of the Vietnam War were not at all commensurate with those over Iraq. The 1972 McGovern presidential campaign, which called for an American retreat from Vietnam, was launched after ten years of fighting with no result, when both parties had already conceded the war could not be won. The conflict between the two major parties was over how to end the war and over what the war had become, not—as in Iraq—over whether the war was illegal and immoral to begin with and should never have been fought. The Democrats’ opposition to a war they had authorized, represented a betrayal of the nation and its men and women in arms that has no equivalent in American history.

The domestic divisions over both wars were initiated by a radical left whose agendas went far beyond the conflicts themselves. In the decades that followed their efforts to bring the Vietnam War to an ignoble end, the left had made ever deeper inroads into the Democratic Party until, in 2008, the party nominated a senator from its anti-war ranks who became the 44th president of the United States. Of far greater significance than the successful candidacy of one anti-war spokesman, however, was the path the entire Democratic Party took in first abandoning a war its leaders had approved, and then conducting a five-year campaign against the war while it was still in progress.

I have written two previous books about this defection and its destructive consequences. The first, Unholy Alliance: Radical Islam And the American Left (2004), documented the emergence of the post-9/11 anti-war movement, its tacit alliance with the jihadist enemy and its malign influence on the Democratic Party’s fateful turn. The second, Party of Defeat: How Democrats and Radicals Undermined America's War on Terror Before and After 9-11 (2008), was written with Ben Johnson and focused on the sabotage of the war effort by leaders of the Democratic Party, by progressive activists and by a left-leaning national media. This chorus of opposition took advantage of American missteps to conduct a no-holds- barred propaganda campaign worthy of an enemy, even going so far as to leak classified information that destroyed vital national secu-rity programs and put all Americans at risk. Political opponents of the war attacked the moral character of the commander-in-chief and the mission both parties had endorsed. This assault on America’s role in the war dealt a devastating blow to American power and influence from which they have yet to recover.

It is customary and natural for human beings to identify with the communities they inhabit, and on whose health and security their lives depend. This is the foundation of all patriotic sentiment. But once individuals become possessed by the idea that political power can be “transformative” and create a fundamentally different human environment, they develop an allegiance to the idea itself and to the parties and entities in which they see it embodied. Such individuals come to feel alienated from the societies they live in but are determined to replace, and finally to see their own country as an enemy because it is the enemy of their progressive dreams. This is how generations of leftists came to identify with the Communist adversary and its cold war against the democracies of the West. When the Communist empire collapsed, I was curious to see whether this progressive reflex would survive the fall. Lacking the real world instantiation of their dreams Soviet Russia had provided, would progressives continue to volunteer as frontier guards for America’s enemies, even the most reprehensible among them? The answer was not long in coming.

On November 9, 1989, the Berlin Wall came down, liberating hundreds of millions of captive people from their Soviet prison. The following August, Iraq’s sadistic dictator ordered his armies into Kuwait and erased that sovereign nation from the political map. Unlike the Soviet rulers who paid lip service to progressive ideals, Saddam Hussein was a self-identified fascist who did not pretend to advance the cause of “social justice” or liberal values. Even by 20th-century standards, Saddam was an exceptionally cruel and bloody tyrant. But he was also an enemy of the United States, and that proved enough to persuade progressives to lend him a helping hand. When America organized an international coalition to reverse Iraq’s aggression, the progressive left opposed the action as though America rather than the Saddam regime were at fault.

At the time, the only reason there were no large protests against the war over Kuwait was because progressives were freshly demoralized by the Soviet debacle and still in disarray. But their mood changed over the course of the next decade. As the millennium approached, leftists began to regroup, organizing a series of large and violent demonstrations against “globalization,” the term with which they re-labeled their old nemesis “international capitalism.” When Islamic fanatics attacked New York and Washing- ton in 2001, leaders of the globalization protests re-positioned their agendas to focus on the new American “imperialism” in Afghanistan and then Iraq. Eventually, millions of leftists at home and abroad participated in protests to prevent America and the coalition it led from removing Saddam Hussein. Without overtly supporting the Saddam regime as they had the Kremlin, progressives resumed their role as frontier guards for the enemies of the United States...

Tuesday, June 16, 2015

Ted F'king Cruz!

He wasn't in the news yesterday, but Jeb "Amnesty" Bush was, heh.

Cool.



Tuesday, May 19, 2015

Forget 2003. Jeb Bush Should Focus on Today's Iraq

Well that's for sure.

From Marc Thiessen, at the Washington Post:
Jeb Bush’s fumbled answer on Iraq is so troubling because the controversy is so unnecessary. The only people in the United States obsessed with re-litigating the 2003 decision to invade Iraq are on the left. Most Americans are far more concerned about what the next president is going to do about Iraq today.

And — news flash — the vast majority want to send ground forces to Iraq right now.

In March, a Quinnipiac University poll found that 62 percent of Americans support sending ground forces to Iraq to fight the Islamic State, while only 30 percent are opposed. Even a 53 percent majority of Democrats support sending ground troops to Iraq, along with 60 percent of independents. Among Republicans, support for boots on the ground is even higher, with 73 percent in favor and 18 percent opposed.

So let’s be clear: There is no groundswell among GOP primary voters for Bush or any of the Republican presidential candidates to disavow the 2003 invasion. What voters do want to hear from the presidential contenders is how they are going to deal with the terrorist threat from Iraq in the here and now. Just this weekend, the Islamic State captured Ramadi, capital of Anbar province, putting the terrorists just 80 miles from Baghdad. Despite months of U.S. airstrikes, the terrorists are on the offensive, gaining ground. President Obama’s strategy is failing, and his policy of retreat and withdrawal from Iraq is a disaster...
Well, yeah.

The only lying sacks are on the left. They're hateful lying scumbags.

Keep reading.

Tuesday, May 12, 2015

GOP 'Strategist' Ana Navarro: Jeb Bush 'Misheard' Megyn Kelly's Question About Iraq

She's such a faux-con amnesty shill.

At TPM, "Ex-Bush Aide: Jeb Told Me He Misheard Question About Invading Iraq (VIDEO)":

Ana Navarro, a former aide to ex-Florida Gov. Jeb Bush (R), said on CNN Tuesday that the potential presidential candidate told her he'd misheard a question about the Iraq War.

Navarro, who was Bush's director of immigration policy in the governor's office, said on CNN's "New Day" that she'd emailed Bush on Tuesday morning for clarification about his comments.

"I emailed him this morning and I said to him, 'Hey, I'm a little confused by this answer so I'm genuinely wondering did you mishear the question?'" Navarro said. "And he said, 'Yes, I misheard the question.'"

Bush gave the answer in a sit-down interview with Fox News host Megyn Kelly that aired Monday night. The question came after reports surfaced last week that he sought advice on the Middle East from his brother, President George W. Bush.

"Knowing what we know now, would you have authorized the invasion?" Kelly asked.

"I would," Bush answered.

On Tuesday morning, Navarro she wasn't sure whether he would clarify the answer.

Bush has taken heat from both conservative radio host Laura Ingraham and the Democratic National Committee since the remark went live.

Fellow guest and Democratic strategist Paul Begala chimed in after Navarro's answer.

"I didn't know he had a hearing impairment and we pray for his swift recovery," Begala said.
More at NYT, "Jeb Bush, Ana Navarro and the Question That May Have Been Misheard."

Monday, March 9, 2015

Jeb Bush Faces More Resistance

Big surprise here.

At WSJ, "Poll Finds Big 2016 Field Divides GOP: While Democrats Back Hillary Clinton, Jeb Bush Faces More Resistance From His Party":

The two most recognizable figures in the 2016 presidential race start off in very different positions within their own parties, and with Americans overall feeling more positive toward Hillary Clinton than Jeb Bush .

Those findings in a new Wall Street Journal/NBC poll reinforce the view that while the Democrats’ nominating contest now looks like a foregone conclusion, provided Mrs. Clinton enters the race, the Republican contest appears to be wide open, with no clear front-runner.

The survey found that 86% of likely Democratic primary voters say they are open to supporting Mrs. Clinton for the party’s nomination, and 13% said they couldn’t. Those polled view the former secretary of state more favorably than unfavorably, with 44% holding positive views and 36% with negative views of her.

Mr. Bush, an early favorite for the Republican nomination among GOP donors, faces more resistance within his party. Some 49% of people who plan to vote in GOP primaries said they could see themselves supporting Mr. Bush and 42% said they couldn’t, the survey found. Poll participants view him more negatively than positively, with 34% seeing him in an unfavorable light and 23% viewing him favorably.

The Journal/NBC poll of 1,000 adults was conducted March 1 through 5, a period when news reports surfaced disclosing Mrs. Clinton’s exclusive use of a private email account to conduct official business as secretary of state. Critics and some fellow Democrats have said the disclosures raise questions about Mrs. Clinton’s commitment to transparency in public office.

The two Republicans who begin the race on the strongest footing in the poll are Florida Sen. Marco Rubio and Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker. More than half of GOP primary voters said they were open to supporting Messrs. Rubio or Walker, compared with 49% who said so of Mr. Bush.

Resistance within the party to Messrs. Rubio and Walker is far lower than for Mr. Bush: Some 26% said they couldn’t see themselves supporting Mr. Rubio, and 17% said so of the Wisconsin governor.

The good news for Mr. Bush is that he has nearly a year to reshape his image before voting begins, and none of his likely rivals shows signs of running away with the race.

In fact, he would begin the 2016 campaign in much the same place that former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney began the 2012 race in which he locked up the nomination after a long primary slog. Mr. Romney was viewed positively by 43% of GOP primary voters and negatively by 12% about a year before primary voting began, about the same as Mr. Bush is viewed among GOP primary voters today.

“He still has room to change his image,” Mr. Yang, the Democratic pollster, said of Mr. Bush. He noted that 43% of the public is still on the fence about Mr. Bush or doesn’t know him well enough to form an opinion...
More.


Friday, February 27, 2015

Quinnipiac University Poll: Scott Walker Holds Early Lead in Iowa Republican Caucuses

This is great.

Indeed, the race is wide open, Jeb Bush.

At Quinnipiac, "Walker Has Strong Early Lead In Iowa GOP Caucus, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Conservative Base With Large Dose of Tea Party."

More from Ed Morrissey, at Hot Air, "Video: Is Jeb Bush inevitable?"

ADDED: From Ronald Brownstein, at National Journal, "In Early Polling, Walker Stands Apart" (via Memeorandum).

Sorry, Jeb, the Race Is Wide Open

From Peggy Noonan, at WSJ, "Democrats may be ready for Hillary, but nothing is inevitable for the GOP":
Thoughts on the 2016 presidential primaries:

No one expects anything from the Democrats. They will back, accept or acquiesce in a coronation. This will not be called passive but disciplined. But when you think about it—one of our two major parties, in a time of considerable national peril, will settle its presidential nomination without vigorous debate—it is weird and disturbing.

Republicans are the action, and will draw all the lightning. A read on where the base—huge, broad and varied, including but not limited to attendees of this week’s Conservative Political Action Conference—is:

Republicans this year are not looking for Reagan. They’re looking for Churchill. They’re looking for the guy who knows the war is already here, not the guy who knows the war can be averted if we defeat the guys who would wage it. What is “the war”? Everything from scarily sluggish economic growth to long-term liabilities and deficits; from the melting away of the post-World-War-II order to the Mideast to domestic terrorism. Every four years there is frustration and argument; this year there is urgency.

What the Republican Party needs in a presidential candidate is not a centrist who can make the sale to conservatives in the primaries; it is a conservative who can win over centrists in the general election. That means the Republican nominee should be a man or woman who can redefine conservative thinking for current circumstances and produce policies that centrists and independents will find worthy of consideration.

Jeb Bush is said by some and treated by many as the front-runner, the one to beat. I don’t see it. In fact I think he’s making a poor impression.

It’s a commonplace to say nobody’s watching this early. But some people are, especially activists in the base and the mainstream media, which is picking up impressions that will harden into widespread clichĂ©s. What are they seeing?

Mr. Bush is spending much of his time in The Rooms—offices and conference rooms—with millionaires and billionaires. Money in politics is very important, and Mr. Bush makes a great impression on the denizens of The Rooms. He speaks their language. They like his experience, the fluency with which he speaks of domestic policy. Here his family name helps him; they know he is politically vetted, a successful former governor, is respectful of the imperatives of business, and is bottom-line sane.

It is going so well that Patrick O’Connor of the Journal reported this week the Bush team is asking fundraisers who want to join the campaign’s top tier to collect $500,000 by the end of March. But veteran bundlers expect it will cost more “to reach the inner circle . . . because deep-pocketed donors have been so eager to write big checks.”

All this reflects a deliberate allocating of the candidate’s time. The Bush campaign will vacuum up money now and be interesting and compelling later. They’re trying to force rivals out of the race by picking up their potential donors and leaving nothing but crumbs.

Mr. Bush’s operation is also, according to the New York Times, muscling party strategists and policy specialists to advise only him and no one else. Again a message is sent: Be with us now or we’ll remember later. It sounds tough and Clintonian. Actually it looks less like a sales pitch than a hostile takeover.

There’s something tentative and joyless in Mr. Bush’s public presentations. He isn’t mixing it up with voters or wading into the crowd. So far he is not good at the podium. His recent foreign-policy speech was both bland and jangly, and its one memorable statement—“I am my own man”—was the kind of thing a candidate shouldn’t have to say.

What is most missing so far is a fierce sense of engagement, a passionate desire to lead America out of the morass, a fiery—or Churchillian—certainty that he is the man for the moment. In its place we see a softer, wanner I’m smart, accomplished, know policy, and it’s my turn.

I am not sure Mr. Bush likes the base. If he doesn’t, it would explain some of his discomfort. I am wondering if he sees the base as a challenge, not a home, something he has to manage, not something he is of. He was perhaps referring to this in December when he said you have “to lose the primary to win the general.” Actually you have to win it, but to really succeed you have to show you share the base’s heart, that you understand its beginning points and align with it on essentials. When you disagree with it you address those issues among friends, and with confidence. You can’t cover up differences in a passive-aggressive way—at their feet when you really want to be at their throat.

A certain resistance to the idea of Mr. Bush is bubbling up among some journalists and intellectuals. In an arresting piece in the Atlantic, David Frum asked if he is the Republican Obama —essentially bicultural, interested in transforming a nation he finds lacking. “Both Jeb Bush and Barack Obama are men who have openly and publicly struggled with their ambivalence about their family inheritance. Both responded by leaving the place of their youth to create new identities for themselves: Barack Obama, as an organizer in the poor African-American neighborhoods of Chicago; Jeb Bush in Mexico, Venezuela, and at last in Cuban-influenced Miami. Both are men who have talked a great deal about the feeling of being ‘between two worlds,’ ” Mr. Obama in his books and Mr. Bush in his speeches. “Both chose wives who would more deeply connect them to their new chosen identity. Both derived from their new identity a sharp critique of their nation as it is. Both have built their campaign for president upon a deep commitment to fundamental transformation of their nation into what they believe it should be.”

Jim Geraghty of National Review writes of “considerable evidence that there’s a lot of Jeb-skepticism out there among conservatives.” Jay Cost of the Weekly Standard says Mr. Bush may be “cornering the market” on professional Republicans but asks: “What is the case for a Bush restoration, beyond the fact that it would make the professional GOP comfortable once again? Why should average Republican primary voters—the insurance salesmen and truck drivers, not pollsters and policy advisors—choose Jeb over Scott Walker, Chris Christie , Ted Cruz, or the dozen other potential nominees?”

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