Friday, June 13, 2014

Can U.S. Embassy in #Iraq Withstand ISIS Attack?

I suppose it's a good question.

Mostly, though, I expect the helicopters will land on the roof and that'll be it. And apparently that's no easy trick, with so many personnel to evaculate.

At CNN:



U.S. Options in #Iraq

So far, Retired Army Lieutenant General James Dubik had the best analysis, "U.S. Must Act to Prevent Extremists’ Victory in #Iraq."

Something to think about in light of this report from CBS Evening News:



Thousands Heed Call to Arms in #Iraq

At the Wall Street Journal, "Top Shiite Cleric Urges Defense Against Fast-Moving Sunni Insurgents, Fanning Sectarian Conflict":

Shiite Call to Arms photo P1-BQ427_LIONDO_E_20140613224133_zps79e28ff1.jpg
Iraq's most influential Shiite cleric issued a rare call to arms to defend against attacking Sunni insurgents, portending a wider sectarian conflict as thousands of young men heeded his words.  Grand Ayatollah Ali Sistani, who has millions of followers world-wide, called on all able men to fight the Islamic State of Iraq and al-Sham, an al Qaeda offshoot, whose lightning offensive across a large swath of western Iraq this past week sent tremors across the region.

"Given the current threat facing Iraq, defending the land, honor and holy places is a religious duty," said a statement from Ayatollah Sistani that was read by his representative at a Friday sermon in Karbala.

The statement came as the U.S. declared a "shared interest" with Iran in subduing the Islamist insurgents and President Barack Obama said his administration would consider a range of responses in the coming days to help Iraq's defense, including airstrikes.

Ayatollah Sistani's call was quickly answered by thousands of gun-toting men, who emerged in Baghdad, Basra and other Iraqi cities to declare their readiness to join a holy war. TV images showed young men lining up behind pickup trucks and outside of military bases.

Ayatollah Sistani's call followed a chorus of statements from prominent Shiite clerics in Qom and Najaf this week seeking unity among Shiites to join the government's armed struggle against the Islamic State of Iraq and al-Sham, or ISIS.

The developments underscore the inability of Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki's government to muster sufficient military force to blunt the rebel force. Four days after the insurgents captured Mosul, Iraq's second-largest city, with little military resistance, the weakness of Iraq's forces was again evident on Friday during battles raging for control of the corridors leading to the capital Baghdad.

Ayatollah Sistani, whose influence across the Shiite world is unrivaled, rarely involves himself in politics and military strategy. He follows a Shiite doctrine known as "quietism," which promotes Islamic principles but shuns a political role for its clerics.

Even during the height of Iraq's civil war, the reclusive 83-year-old cleric refrained from issuing a fatwa to fight Americans or Sunni insurgents.

That he would do so now suggests that Ayatollah Sistani and the Shiite community views ISIS—and its loose alliance with disenfranchised Sunni tribes and insurgent groups—as the most significant threat Iraq's government has faced.

"Sistani wants to say he did his part under grave circumstances," said Mehdi Khalaji, a senior fellow at the Washington Institute and an expert in Shiite theology. "No one has been as anti-Shiite as ISIS, not the Sunnis and certainly not the Americans."
More.

Lt. Col. Ralph Peters on #Iraq Crisis: 'Very Good Chance Our Embassy Will Be Attacked...'

"This is going to make Benghazi look like chump change."

Listen at the second half of the clip. Peters has sources inside the military intelligence community and they are "horrified" at developments in Iraq.



The first half, also excellent, discusses Bowe Bergdahl's return to the U.S.

Peters is livid that he's receiving better medical care than our veterans. Rather than a court martial, Obama wants to give Bergdahl a "general discharge" at full benefits for life.

PREVIOUSLY: "Lt. Col. Ralph Peters: 'In the Middle East, the United States Is Now In its Weakest Position Since 1945...'"

Faces of Hate: The Extremists and Bigots Behind #BDS

At Algemeiner, "‘Who’s Behind the Hate at NYU?’ Asks New Ad Campaign":

Lisa Duggan photo tip-ad_zps5570979e.png
A new ad campaign appeared online on Wednesday, drawing attention to the New York University faculty member who heads the American Studies Association that is calling for an academic boycott of Israel.

Advocacy group The Israel Project funded the campaign.  The ad was delivered by Google AdWords on news sites and went to a landing page entitled Peace Not Hate.

The campaign asks, “Why is NYU supporting academic bigotry?”

“Last year, the American Studies Association (ASA) joined the hate-campaign against Israel by voting to boycott Israeli professors,” it said.  “NYU should have immediately pulled their funding of the group, like other universities. But NYU has continued to fund its ASA chapter.”

“By steering university funding to a group that fuels academic bigotry, NYU is betraying its students and its own commitment to academic openness.”  The webpage linked to a petition before exhorting readers, including alumni who might be worried about the school’s “good name.”

It said, “Don’t let a fringe group of haters and extremists demonize Israel and dirty the good name of NYU.”  “Tell NYU to live up to its highest principals. Add your name and email to tell NYU: Honor truth. Stop funding hate.”

While New York University’s president and provost have condemned the ASA’s boycott. the group’s new president, NYU Social and Cultural Analysis Professor Lisa Duggan, was pilloried for her stance, and muddled arguments, by Forbes Investigative Journalist Richard Behar, in a 15,000-word exposé.

The saga continued when Duggan, a lesbian, accused the veteran reporter of homophobia by noting that rather than any expertise in the Middle East, Duggan teaches ‘Queer Historiographies and Constructions of Whiteness in the United States.’
Keep reading.

The campaign's "Peace Not Hate" website is here.

And previously, "Letter Protesting Professor Lisa Duggan's Racist Anti-Israel Conference to NYU President John Sexton."

Brooke Goldstein: #ISIS Jihadis 'Are Now Coming Home...'

This was on Megyn Kelly's show last night, and it's good.

Goldstein brilliantly extrapolates from the current crisis in Iraq to the likely consequences for American security. She argues we're practically begging for a new wave of attacks on the U.S. homeland, and "god forbid," perhaps even another 9/11.



Marc Thiessen was on just before Goldstein, and that segment is here, "Brutal New Terror Group Parading Police Hostages Through Iraq Cities - The Kelly File."

Russian Fashion Model Svetlana Cluck

A needed break from Iraq war blogging, at Corridor40, "SVETLANA CLUCK BY ATTILIO D’AGOSTINO FOR POLANSKI MAGAZINE VOL. 3."

John McCain Pushes Back Against MSNBC's Cut-and-Run 'Confusion' on #Iraq

Folks may remember, back in late 2007, I was blogging all out for John McCain for the 2008 GOP primaries. McCain's lost a lot of credibility since his defeat to Obama in the general election that year --- and to this day I cringe at his treasonous McShamnesty programs --- but I'll never regret supporting his presidential campaign because I knew a President McCain would have never allowed the collapse of Iraq, the likes of which we're watching unfold in real time.

So now he's back in his element as the region goes up in flames. It's only a matter of days now, if not hours, until the fall of Baghdad, and the MSNBC hacks like Mika Brzezinski want to go back and "re-litigate" the origins of the war in 2003. That's to be expected, as McCain so ably points out at the clip.

And as we go forward, literally for the remainder of this presidency, the question of "Who lost Iraq?" is going to dominate. And with a string of other foreign policy disasters to his name, I can guarantee you that President Obama's going to come up wanting badly, and people will be pining for the leadership of former President George W. Bush.

At Politico, "McCain Iraq interview gets heated."



Cowardly Collapse of Iraq Security Forces in Face of #ISIS Barbarity

Following up from earlier, "Extended Civil War Likely in #Iraq."

I exchanged tweets with Louise Mensch:


And now see the Minneapolis Star Tribune, "Fear, sectarian divisions, low morale lie behind collapse of Iraqi forces in face of militants":
CAIRO — The video, set to sweetly lilting religious hymns, is chilling. Islamic militants are shown knocking on the door of a Sunni police major in the dead of night in an Iraqi city. When he answers, they blindfold and cuff him. Then they carve off his head with a knife in his own bedroom.

The 61-minute video was recently posted online by the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant, an al-Qaida splinter group of Sunni extremists. The intent was to terrorize Sunnis in Iraq's army and police forces and deepen their already low morale.

That fear is one factor behind the stunning collapse of Iraqi security forces when fighters led by the Islamic State overran the cities of Mosul and Tikrit this week, sweeping over a swath of Sunni-majority territory. In most cases, police and soldiers simply ran, sometimes shedding their uniforms, and abandoned arsenals of heavy weapons.

Even after the United States spent billions of dollars training the armed forces during its 2003-2011 military presence in Iraq, the 1 million-member army and police remain riven by sectarian discontents, corruption and a lack of professionalism.

Many Sunnis in the armed forces are unprepared to die fighting on behalf of Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki's Shiite-led government, which many in their minority community accuse of sharp bias against them. The Islamic State has exploited this by touting itself as the Sunnis' champion against Shiites.

Shiites in the armed forces, in turn, feel isolated and deeply vulnerable trying to hold on to Sunni-majority areas.

Desertion has been heavy the past six months among forces in the western province of Anbar, Iraq's Sunni heartland, where troops have been fighting in vain to uproot Islamic State fighters who took over the city of Fallujah, said two high officials — one in the government and the other in the intelligence services.

The militants who early this week swept into the northern city of Mosul included former Sunni army officers who had deserted out of frustration with al-Maliki's government, the two officials told The Associated Press, speaking on condition of anonymity to discuss intelligence reports.

As the militants approached, the two officials said, many of the top army commanders in Mosul, Iraq's second-largest city, fled to the autonomous Kurdish region...
Continue reading.

More at Atlas Shrugs, "Heads of Iraqi Policemen And Soldiers Line Streets of Mosul, Brutal Sharia Imposed" and Bare Naked Islam, "IRAQ: ISIS terrorists’ mass executions and beheadings of Iraqi soldiers and civilians (WARNING: Graphic)."


Obama Subpar on #Iraq

Following up from previously, "While #Iraq Falls to al Qaeda, Obama is Off to Fundraise and Play Golf in Palm Springs."

And seen today on Twitter:

Obama Golf photo BqB9tOPCcAEJe9p_zps472a0b50.jpg

Pamela Brown

She's been anchoring CNN's Newsroom, in for Brooke Baldwin.

What a sweetie.

Simple, Free Image and File Hosting at MediaFire


Are You Reading Theo Spark?

Lots of lovely blogging over there of late.

Especially the photos, here and here, for example.

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Extended Civil War Likely in #Iraq

More great coverage today at the Wall Street Journal, as you can see from my front-page tweet, and the newspaper's beautiful graphic of the region and key actors.

And here's today's editorial on the crisis, "The Iraq Debacle":

The magnitude of the debacle now unfolding in Iraq is becoming clearer by the day, with the terrorist army of the Islamic State of Iraq and al-Sham, or ISIS, marching ever closer to Baghdad. On Tuesday the al Qaeda affiliate captured Mosul, a city with a population greater than Philadelphia's, a day later it took Tikrit in the Sunni heartland, and on Thursday ISIS commanders announced they plan to attack the Shiite holy cities of Najaf and Karbala.

No one should underestimate the danger this presents to the stability of the region and to America's national and economic security. An extended civil war seems to be the best near-term possibility. More dangerous is ISIS's ambition to establish a Muslim caliphate in the heart of the Persian Gulf, which would mean a safe haven for Islamic terrorism that would surely target the U.S. The danger to Iraq's oil exports of three million barrels a day is already sending prices up and global equities down.

***

The threat to Baghdad is real and more imminent than is widely understood. Four Iraqi divisions have melted away before the 3000-5,000 ISIS force, which is gaining deadlier weapons as it advances. One source says Iraqi soldiers who are supposed to protect Baghdad are dressing in civilian clothes beneath their military uniforms in case they have to flee. Iraq's air power, such as it is, could soon be grounded if civilian contractors are endangered.

President Obama finally addressed the spreading chaos during a photo-op with Australian Prime Minister Tony Abbott on Thursday, noting "a lot of concern" but making no commitments to help. The White House turned down an urgent appeal from Baghdad to intervene with air strikes, leaving Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki little choice but to turn to Iran to fill the breach—and extend its influence. Meanwhile, Vice President Joe Biden is said to be on top of things from the Situation Room. Inshallah.

The prospect of Iraq's disintegration is already being spun by the Administration and its media friends as the fault of George W. Bush and Mr. Maliki. So it's worth understanding how we got here.  Iraq was largely at peace when Mr. Obama came to office in 2009. Reporters who had known Baghdad during the worst days of the insurgency in 2006 marveled at how peaceful the city had become thanks to the U.S. military surge and counterinsurgency. In 2012 Anthony Blinken, then Mr. Biden's top security adviser, boasted that, "What's beyond debate" is that "Iraq today is less violent, more democratic, and more prosperous. And the United States is more deeply engaged there than at any time in recent history."

Mr. Obama employed the same breezy confidence in a speech last year at the National Defense University, saying that "the core of al Qaeda" was on a "path to defeat," and that the "future of terrorism" came from "less capable" terrorist groups that mainly threatened "diplomatic facilities and businesses abroad." Mr. Obama concluded his remarks by calling on Congress to repeal its 2001 Authorization to Use Military Force against al Qaeda.

If the war on terror was over, ISIS didn't get the message. The group, known as Tawhid al-Jihad when it was led a decade ago by Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, was all but defeated by 2009 but revived as U.S. troops withdrew and especially after the uprising in Syria spiraled into chaos. It now controls territory from the outskirts of Aleppo in northwestern Syria to Fallujah in central Iraq.

The possibility that a long civil war in Syria would become an incubator for terrorism and destabilize the region was predictable, and we predicted it. "Now the jihadists have descended by the thousands on Syria," we noted last May. "They are also moving men and weapons to and from Iraq, which is increasingly sinking back into Sunni-Shiite civil war. . . . If Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki feels threatened by al Qaeda and a Sunni rebellion, he will increasingly look to Iran to help him stay in power."
More.

PREVIOUSLY: Here's yesterday's report on WSJ coverage, "Iran's Revolutionary Guard Deployed Against ISIS Forces in #Iraq."

EARLIER: Compare WSJ's editorial to NYT's, "New York Times Blames Nouri al-Maliki for #Obama Administration's Meltdown in the Middle East."

New York Times Blames Nouri al-Maliki for #Obama Administration's Meltdown in the Middle East

Typical cut-and-run drivel from the unofficial newspaper of record.

Check out this editorial, letting the Obama White House off the hook , "Iraq in Peril: Prime Minister Maliki Panics as Insurgents Gain":
What’s happening in Iraq is a disaster and it is astonishing that the Iraqis and the Americans, who have been sharing intelligence, seem to have been caught flat-footed by the speed of the insurgent victories and the army defections.

Prime Minister Nuri Kamal al-Maliki is said to be in a panic. It is hard to be surprised by that, because more than anyone he is to blame for the catastrophe. Mr. Maliki has been central to the political disorder that has poisoned Iraq, as he wielded authoritarian power in favor of the Shiite majority at the expense of the minority Sunnis, stoked sectarian conflict and enabled a climate in which militants could gain traction.

With stunning efficiency, Sunni militants in recent days captured Mosul, the second-largest city; occupied facilities in the strategic oil-refining town of Baiji; and are now headed for Baghdad. Hundreds of thousands of civilians have been forced to flee their homes and untold numbers have been killed.

The insurgency’s gains will not be a threat just to Iraq if the militants, who have also been fighting in Syria, succeed in establishing a radical Islamic state on the Iraq-Syria border. No one should want that — not the Kurds, not the Turks and not the Iranians.

The deadly surge is the work of the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria, which grew out of Al Qaeda in Iraq and is considered even more violent than its predecessor. Since the United States withdrew from Iraq at the end of 2011, the group has steadily gained strength and recruited thousands of foreign fighters; it broke with Al Qaeda earlier this year and is now viewed as a leader of global jihad.

As this week’s events unfolded, it was alarming to learn of the swift capitulation of thousands of Iraqi Army troops who surrendered their weapons to the enemy and disappeared. After disbanding Saddam Hussein’s army in 2003 after the invasion by coalition forces and dismantling the government, the United States spent years and many billions of dollars building a new Iraqi Army, apparently for naught. The militants have captured untold quantities of American-supplied weaponry, including helicopters, and looted an estimated $425 million from Mosul’s banks.
And this is classic cover for Obama's absolute Middle East cluster:
The United States simply cannot be sucked into another round of war in Iraq. In any case, airstrikes and new weapons would be pointless if the Iraqi Army is incapable of defending the country.

Why would the United States want to bail out a dangerous leader like Mr. Maliki, who is attempting to remain in power for a third term as prime minister? It is up to Iraq’s leaders to show leadership and name a new prime minister who will share power, make needed reforms and include all sectarian and ethnic groups, especially disenfranchised Sunnis, in the country’s political and economic life — if, indeed, it is not too late.
Right.

Sooper Mexican nails it:



Obama Rules Out Ground Troops as #ISIS Jihadis Threaten Baghdad Takeover

At the Wall Street Journal, "Obama to Review Options on Iraq, But Will Send No Troops: President Says It's Ultimately Up to Iraqis to Resolve Situation."

And at CNN:


PREVIOUSLY: "Iraq Crisis: Beheadings, Sharia Imposed as #ISIS Encircles Baghdad; 1,700 Shia Troops Executed; Refugee Crisis Mushrooms."


Iraq Crisis: Beheadings, Sharia Imposed as #ISIS Encircles Baghdad; 1,700 Shia Troops Executed; Refugee Crisis Mushrooms

Richard Engel at NBC News reports that ISIS jihadists have imposed sharia law on Mosul as they continue their incursion into Baghdad. See Washington Free Beacon, "Engel: Sharia Law Being Imposed, Militants Advancing Towards Baghdad."



ISIS brutality escalates, according to London's' Daily Mail, "Beheaded in his own bedroom: Iraq jihadists release horrific videos showing a policeman dragged from his bed and decapitated and motorists gunned down in random drive-by shootings: Battle lines drawn as Iraqi forces gather at base just 20 miles outside Baghdad after militants seize two more towns."

Baghdad residents are preparing for battle as ISIS inches closing to the city center. At Sky News UK, "Iraqis Told: 'Take Up Arms And Defend Country'."

More at Telegraph UK, "Iraq crisis: ISIS claims to have executed 1,700 Shia soldiers."

Also at the Huffington Post, "Iraq Refugee Population Increased By Nearly 800,000 This Year: UN."

And at the New York Times, "Iraqi Shiite Cleric Issues Call to Arms Against Sunni Militants."

As this post goes live President Obama is expected to deliver an address on the crisis. Barbara Starr at CNN is reporting a U.S. carrier group is being repositioned from the Arabian Sea to the Persian Gulf, should the administration call for airstrikes.

Expect updates...

ADDED: Here's CNN's breaking tweet the U.S. naval deployment, and as this update goes live the president is giving his press conference on the crisis:




President Obama Announces the End of Combat Operations in #Iraq (August 31, 2010)

Perhaps the most fateful decision of the Obama presidency, now playing out for the history books across the Middle East.

Here's the White House video on YouTube, from August 31, 2010, "The End of the Combat Mission in Iraq."

Here's the contemporaneous Fox News report, "Obama Marks End of U.S. Combat Mission in Iraq, Salutes Bush."

And ICYMI from the other day, Max Boot, at the Wall Street Journal, puts the missed opportunity for lasting stability in perspective, "Obama's Tragic Iraq Withdrawal."

And this Sky News video, just weeks before Obama's Oval Office address, provides some historical perspective on the decision. Former Ambassador John Bolton's comments are eerily prescient:


'The week of June 9th. Nothing was supposed to happen. All eyes were to have been on her, as she grandly rolled out her tome and swanned from one graciously conducted interview to the next. She would be queen of the week's news cycle...'

A wonderful post from Ann Althouse, "Poor Hillary! She thought she picked a boring week."

ABC's Jonathan Karl Calls Out Jay Carney on Obama's 'Signature Achievement' in #Iraq

At Instapundit, "FEET OF CLAY: ABC’s Jonathan Karl Casts Doubt on Obama’s Supposed Top Foreign-Policy Achievements."

And from Noah Rothman, at Hot Air, "Jon Karl presses Carney over whether Iraq remains one of Obama’s ‘signature achievements’."

Here's the video, "ABC's Jon Karl Grills W.H. Over Its Rhetoric & Reality on Iraq and Al Qaeda."

Islamist Militants Aim to Redraw Map of the Middle East — #Iraq

At the Wall Street Journal, "Governments Under Siege as ISIS Seeks to Impose Vision of Single Radical Islamist State":

At an annual security conference in Israel this week, the head of the military showed pictures of two long-dead diplomats.

Mark Sykes, an Englishman, and François Georges-Picot, a Frenchman, secured their place in history by cutting a deal that drew the borders of the modern Middle East.

The point of recalling the men: It suddenly appears those century-old borders, and the Middle Eastern states they defined, are being stretched and possibly erased.

"This entire system is disintegrating like a house of cards that starts to collapse," Lt. Gen. Benny Gantz said.

A militant Islamist group that has carved out control of a swath of Syria has moved into Iraq, conquering cities and threatening the Iraqi government the U.S. helped create and support with billions of dollars in aid and thousands of American lives.

The group—known as the Islamic State of Iraq and al Sham—isn't a threat only to Iraq and Syria. It seeks to impose its vision of a single radical Islamist state stretching from the Mediterranean coast of Syria through modern Iraq, the region of the Islamic Caliphates established in the seventh and eighth centuries.

Governments and borders are under siege elsewhere, as well. For more than a year, Shiite militias from Lebanon have moved into Syria and operated as a virtual arm of the Syrian government. Meanwhile, so many Syrian refugees have gone in the opposite direction—fleeing into Lebanon—that Lebanon now houses more school-age Syrian children than Lebanese children.

And in Iraq, the Kurdish population has carved out a homeland in the north of the country that—with the help of Turkey and against the wishes of the Iraqi government—exports its own oil, runs its own customs and immigration operations and fields its own military, known as the Peshmerga.

The picture is difficult for the U.S., which is deeply invested in keeping the region stable, and the rapidly deteriorating situation in Iraq is setting off alarm bells inside the Obama administration. The U.S. is weighing more direct military assistance to the government of Iraqi President Nouri al-Maliki, the White House said Thursday, and officials hinted that aid might include airstrikes on militants who have edged to within a half-hour's drive of Baghdad.

"There will be some short-term immediate things that need to be done militarily," President Barack Obama said. "Our national security team is looking at all the options." Mr. Obama also urged Iraq's Shiite-dominated government to seek political paths for moderate Shiites and Sunnis to work together against jihadists. "This should be also a wake-up call for the Iraqi government," he said.

Why are the borders of today's Middle Eastern states suddenly so porous and ineffectual?  In short, the conflicts unleashed in Iraq and Syria have merged to become the epicenter of a struggle between the region's historic ethnic and religious empires: Persian-Shiite Iran, Arab-Sunni Saudi Arabia and Turkic-Sunni Muslim Turkey. Those three, each of whom has dominated the whole of the Middle East at one time or another in past millenniums, are now involved in the battle for influence from the Mediterranean to the Persian Gulf.
Keep reading.