It’s time to drop pretenses of U.S. forces or safe zones and persuade the rebels to accept Russia’s terms. Otherwise a new slaughter will start in Aleppo.Keep reading.
Can the shaky cease-fire announced this week avert a fresh disaster about to happen in Syria? The siege of Aleppo, Syria’s largest city. That will be the key test for the pact, which is to go into effect on Feb. 27. For weeks now, Aleppans have felt a sense of impending doom. Recently, Syrian government forces with the support of Russian air power cut off the last remaining major supply route to rebels in Aleppo, setting the stage for a siege. Fearing the prospect of bombardment and starvation, tens of thousands of Syrians have already fled toward Turkey and the hope of safety. With Ankara refusing to let most of them into the country, a humanitarian crisis is already brewing on the border. Many thousands more are fleeing to other parts of Syria, including to regime-held areas. A not-small percentage of them will end up on the road to Europe this spring and summer.
Ironically, the talks are not even any longer about bringing relief to Aleppo. It was the Assad regime’s advance on the city in early February that pushed international negotiations forward. But the talks are less likely to have any meaningful impact there than in other parts of Syria because fighting has dramatically intensified in and around Aleppo even as negotiations have progressed. And the Russians have made it clear that even if a cessation of hostilities comes into effect, Aleppo and the neighboring province of Idlib will be excluded from the arrangement due to the direct presence of Jabhat al-Nusra, Al Qaeda’s affiliate in Syria.
The fact that President Vladimir Putin came out so quickly in support of the agreement, making a special address on Russian television yesterday, at least holds out the prospect of a new commitment from Moscow. This is presumably based on the military gains Putin’s forces have helped Assad secure over recent months. And the Russian leader has reason to be confident he can control events on the ground: The presence of al-Nusra, in particular, gives Russia an excuse to keep fighting in Aleppo and even to target rebel fighters that the West would prefer to support. Washington knows it is impossible to craft a cease-fire that would still allow attacks on the Islamic State—which President Barack Obama wants—but rule out efforts against al-Nusra, which is a terrorist organization by any definition.
Many still see the ultimate answer in the use of U.S. military force or a no-fly or safe zone to save the people of Aleppo and to push back the Russian-supported regime advance. Such voices are demanding that Washington find a way to reopen supply routes into the city and increase the flow of high-end weapons to the rebels.
But just as constant in these refrains is the lack of a broader strategy in which to place the use of U.S. force. Beyond the fact that these measures would risk a direct U.S.-Russian clash and the possible outbreak of a wider conflict, it is doubtful whether safe zones would actually improve protection for civilians. Without an accompanying ground force able to secure the zones, fighting will continue. Al-Nusra and ISIL are likely to partly fill any vacuum. Pushing the regime back from northern Aleppo may change the identity of those who suffer, but it will hardly reduce the problem overall...
Republican leaders who view Donald Trump as a pox on their party have finally settled on a strategy: Resist him as long as they can. Then figure out how to retreat gracefully.More.
Most mainstream Republicans still worry that Trump would make a bad president. And they hold deep concerns that his incendiary rhetoric and ideological smorgasbord of ideas could damage the party, both politically and philosophically, so profoundly that it might never recover.
But even as many party elites have fallen in line behind Florida Sen. Marco Rubio in recent days — believing him the best hope to defeat Trump — they no longer dismiss the billionaire celebrity or insist that it will all work out, as it usually does for the establishment in GOP primaries.
“A lot of longtime Republicans, probably a couple weeks ago, had to sit down and think, ‘You know, this could happen,’ ” said Trent Lott, the former Senate majority leader from Mississippi who is now a Washington lobbyist.
For many in the party establishment, that reckoning amounted to an existential crisis, a moment to reflect on where their core beliefs end and where their practical political instincts kick in.
If Trump wins the nomination, his combative relationship with the establishment will end in an embrace, though perhaps an uneasy one, predicted Lott, who is backing Ohio Gov. John Kasich.
“They’re not going to sign up, and they’re not excited by the prospect,” Lott said of his fellow party standard-bearers. “But I think they’re thinking that if he becomes the nominee — he runs the table and becomes the nominee — we’re certainly going to support him if it comes to Hillary or Bernie.”
It’s a slow process. Several establishment figures, including former New York Mayor Rudolph Giuliani and Reagan administration Secretary of Education William Bennett, said in recent days that Trump has reached out to them to talk policy, sending a broader signal that he may be able to win over at least a few establishment allies. And others have sounded notes of increasing acceptance...
Ten seconds before the Nevada caucuses officially closed at 9 p.m., an excited crowd of several hundred Donald Trump supporters counted down in a ballroom at Treasure Island.Actually, Cruz is collapsing, big time. I expect he'll be getting calls to quit the race soon, especially next week, if his slide continues on Super Tuesday.
As the clock struck 9, CNN called the election for Trump, sending the crowd into choruses of wild applause, whistles and chants of “Trump, Trump, Trump” that echoed throughout the room where Trump’s caucus watch party was being held.
The win comes as no surprise: Expectations were particularly high for Trump over the past few days. Polling in the state — scarce and uncertain as it was — placed Trump with a wide lead over Florida Sen. Marco Rubio and Texas Sen. Ted Cruz. Fresh off a first-place victory in South Carolina, Trump carried that momentum over into Nevada, holding two packed rallies Monday and Tuesday in Las Vegas and Sparks.
A solid victory in Nevada is expected to propel Trump solidly forward to next week, when 11 states hold their nominating contests on Super Tuesday. The Nevada win is Trump’s third first-place win in a row, following New Hampshire and South Carolina. (The only state he hasn’t won was Iowa, the first nominating contest, which Cruz carried.)
Nevada was long projected to be Rubio’s firewall, but instead he left the state in second place.
Trump won 46 percent of the vote. Rubio placed second at 24 percent and Cruz was in third at 21 percent. Ben Carson garnered 5 percent of the vote, and Ohio Gov. John Kasich is at 4 percent.
“A couple of months ago, we weren’t expected to win this one, you know that, right?” Trump told the crowd through whistles and cheers Tuesday night. “Of course, if you listened to the pundits we weren't expected to win too much, and now we're winning, winning, winning.”
The question now for Rubio and Cruz in the coming days is what, if anything, can knock Trump off his game...
Ted Cruz was running a very close third in the Nevada caucuses on Tuesday night when he gave his concession speech, but that didn't stop him from declaring the Republican presidential primary a two-campaign race.And at Memeorandum.
For Cruz, it's down to him and Donald Trump...
Ted Cruz’s presidential bid is in turmoil after repeated allegations of unsavory campaign tactics by his Republican rivals, leading some key supporters to call for a shake-up in the candidate’s message and strategy a week ahead of the crucial Super Tuesday primaries.Keep reading.
Aides and allies of the insurgent senator from Texas acknowledged in interviews this week that the campaign has been damaged by attacks on Cruz’s integrity from Donald Trump and Marco Rubio. They have pointed to a series of questionable tactics by the Cruz camp, including calls to voters suggesting that candidate Ben Carson was dropping out and the sharing of an inaccurate video suggesting Rubio had disparaged the Bible.
The video flap prompted Cruz to abruptly fire his chief spokesman, Rick Tyler, who posted the clip on social media, on Monday in an attempt to put his candidacy back on course. But the troubles continued Tuesday, when the campaign halted the sale of merchandise by a street artist whose social-media accounts include controversial and sometimes racist messages.
Cruz also weathered another wave of attacks from Trump on the eve of the Nevada caucuses. Trump told a rally in Sparks, Nev., that Cruz is “like a little baby — soft, weak little baby. . . . But for lying, he’s the best I’ve ever seen.”
Cruz and his aides say the accusations of deception are simply false. But with the issue dominating media coverage for more than a week, aides and supporters now acknowledge that the attacks have started taking a toll.
Louie Hunter, Cruz’s Georgia co-chair, said the allegations of untruths being pushed by Trump and Rubio have made their way to voters.
“I think both the Trump and the Rubio campaigns have seized on the narrative that if they say ‘liar’ enough, enough people are going to believe it,” Hunter said. “I think that has manifested itself into some people questioning, albeit incorrectly, the real moral character of Senator Cruz and of this campaign.”
The tumult comes at a crucial time for Cruz, who won the Iowa caucuses at the start of the month but finished third in both New Hampshire and, more disappointingly, South Carolina — a state filled with the evangelical Christians and tea party conservatives who make up his political base. After Tuesday night’s Nevada caucuses — which Trump was favored to win — Cruz is looking ahead to March 1, known as “Super Tuesday,” which features 11 state contests mostly in the South, including Cruz’s home state of Texas.
Cruz’s campaign has been focused on Super Tuesday since its inception, with the candidate calling the South a “firewall” that could help him gobble up delegates and secure the nomination. The campaign has poured time and resources into the delegate-rich region, believing its high percentage of religious and conservative voters would be natural Cruz supporters...
4) Fire CEO Jack Dorsey.Other prominent Twitter users are also hanging up their hashtags, most notably Ace at AceofSpadesHQ, who said he's "done with it," except for "promotion" or "to criticize the regime."
The “Trust and Safety Council” was Dorsey’s brainchild, and he’s the one who chose to give it over to political hacks with an axe to grind. In other words, while Twitter’s user base has been leveling off and its share price has been going down in flames, he’s been busy hatching a scheme to drive away even more of its users. If Dorsey were sole owner of Twitter, he would have a right to run it into the ground however he likes. But it’s a publicly traded company, and he has shareholders, co-owners of the firm who have a right to complain that he’s crashing their share prices for the sake of his own personal political crusade. The company’s remaining shareholders need to rebel before he sets fire to more of their money.
.@Jack, Twitter is dead to me if you permanently ban my friend Robert Stacy McCain. @safety @Support cc. @Instapundit #FreeStacy
— Donald Douglas (@AmPowerBlog) February 22, 2016
@lamblock Ima 'bout to cry frankly. I tag R.S. McCain in almost everything I tweet. It's not going to be the same. Folks are quitting.— Donald Douglas (@AmPowerBlog) February 23, 2016
Well @Jack, the #Twitter time-suck is past its prime, and #TCOTs are bailing out. You might want to #FreeStacy. @safety @Support— Donald Douglas (@AmPowerBlog) February 23, 2016
After his solid, broadly based victories in New Hampshire and South Carolina, Donald Trump now holds a commanding position in the race for the Republican presidential nomination.More.
But Trump still faces two “known unknowns,” to borrow the memorable phrase from former Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld, an architect of the Iraq War that Trump now excoriates. One is whether Trump has a ceiling of support. The second is whether, even if he does, any of his remaining rivals can unify enough of the voters resistant to him to beat him.
So far the evidence suggests the answers are: maybe, and not yet. Indeed over the first three contests, Trump’s two principal remaining opponents have shown mirror-image weaknesses. Texas Senator Ted Cruz has assembled a coalition of support that is too narrow; Florida Senator Marco Rubio is building a coalition that is too shallow.
As in his New Hampshire win earlier this month, Trump’s support in South Carolina transcended many of the usual fissures in Republican politics, according to exit poll results posted by CNN. The one big exception remained education: In each of the first three contests, including the Iowa caucus, Trump has not run as well among voters with a college degree as with those lacking advanced education. But because those white-collar voters have fragmented among many choices, none of Trump’s rivals is consolidating enough of them to overcome the New Yorker’s dominant position among voters without a college degree. The simple equation that Trump has consolidated blue-collar Republicans while the party’s white collar wing remains divided remains the most powerful dynamic in the race, even as Trump has failed to exceed 35 percent of the vote in any of the initial contests.
...two factors could conspire to give Trump the nomination.
First, his challengers continue to find reasons to remain in the race, and the longer the field remains crowded, the harder it is for any one of them to attract more voters than Trump in a given state. In fact, one of Rubio’s main arguments is that “the longer this goes on, the worse it’s going to be,” and therefore he is the candidate who can unify the party. A Bush aide said he dropped out in part to help the party unite behind an alternative.
Trump himself mocked pundits for saying his opponents’ votes combined could defeat him if some of them drop out.
“These geniuses,” he said, his voice dripping with sarcasm. “They don’t understand that as people drop out, I’m going to get a lot of those votes also. You don’t just add them together.”
Second, polls show an increasing number of Republicans have become comfortable with Trump leading the party’s ticket in the November general election. In the Fox poll, 74% of Republicans said they would be at least somewhat satisfied with Trump as president. That number was far smaller (43%) among all voters.
To beat back Trump, Cruz, who won the Iowa caucuses, will need to pick up wins in a slew of Southern state primaries held March 1, and hope other contenders drop out. But the Texas senator ultimately will have to persuade more voters to embrace his pure form of conservatism and reject Trump as a phony, a case he has been trying to make for weeks.
“If you are conservative, this is where you belong,” Cruz told supporters Saturday. “Because only one strong conservative is in a position to win this race.”
Rubio, who may have been helped by his endorsement this week from South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley, has a different challenge. The Florida senator will have to begin winning states and hope that a majority of Republicans decide they want a more mainstream candidate, despite polls showing voters are looking to back those who have not served in government.
Rubio did well among GOP primary voters who said they wanted to vote for the best general election candidate, but only about 15% of South Carolina voters said that was a priority.
“If it is God’s will that we should win this election,” Rubio said Saturday night, “then history will say, on this night in South Carolina, we took the first step forward to the beginning of a new American century.”
