The Way Forward in Egypt? Defeat the Left's Red-Green Alliance and Build the Secular-Representative Alternative to Mubarak

Over the last few days, William Kristol has been among the most vocal supporters of dramatic democratic change in Egypt. And in today's essay he pushes back against Glenn Beck and others on the right who fear a Red-Green Alliance of communists and Islamists. Kristol also disagrees with Charles Krauthammer, but that seems secondary to him slamming those positing "one-world conspiracies theories" of a communist-backed caliphate across the Muslim world. The problem is that while Glenn Beck's show sometimes comes off as half-baked, the neo-communist left has indeed aligned with global jihad in a campaign against the West. In fact, today was the progressive-left's "international day of mobilization and solidarity with the Egyptian people." The neo-Stalinist ANSWER homepage has the announcement, "Emergency demonstrations: Stop all U.S. aid to Mubarak dictatorship!":

Emergency demonstrations in solidarity with the uprising of the Egyptian people are taking place across the country to demand that the U.S. government stop all aid to the Mubarak dictatorship.

As I've reported many times, the ANSWER contingents have been at the center of every left-wing mobilization over the past decade, from the Iraq war to Proposition 8 to the anti-SB 1070 campaign last year. The left's all-purpose protest machine, ANSWER is bolstered by Democrats and progressives, many of whom have ties to the Obama administration. Code Pink's Jodie Evans, for example, served as a top campaign fundraiser for Barack Obama, and now her organization is leading a fundraising operation for the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt: "Code Pink: Obama, Hamas, Muslim Brotherhood Ally Raising (Tax Exempt) Money to Overthrow Egypt Gov’t:

As we reported previously, Code Pink has been on the ground in Cairo since the beginning of the uprising. The group has made nine trips to Egypt in the past two years as part of a campaign to undermine the Egyptian government and the blockade against Hamas-controlled Gaza.

For over a week now we've had international solidarity protesters calling for an anti-American, anti-Zionist revolution in Egypt, so, folks might want to step back and go easy on the freedom euphoria just a bit (in favor of a prudent democratic realism).

In any case, Egyptian blogger Sandmonkey, a.k.a. Mahmoud Salem, offers a way forward for Egypt's democracy:

So here are my two cents: next time when you head to Tahrir, alongside blankets and food and medicine, please get some foldable tables, chairs, papers, pens, a laptop and a USB connection. Set up a bunch of tables and start registering the protesters. Get their names, ages, addresses & districts. Based on location, start organizing them into committees, and then have those committees elect leaders or representatives. Do the same in Alex, In Mansoura, in Suez, in every major Egyptian city in which the Protesters braved police suppression and came out in the thousands. Protect the Data with your life. Get encryption programs to ensure the security of the data. Use web-based tools like Google documents to input the data in, thus ensuring that even if your laptops get confiscated by State Security Goons, they won’t find anything on your harddrives. Have people outside of Egypt back-up your data daily on secure servers. Then, start building the structure.

You see, with such Proper citizen organization and segmentation, we’ll have the contact information and location of all the protesters that showed up, and that could be transformed into voting blocks in parliamentary districts: i.e. a foundation for an Egyptian Unity party. That Egyptian Unity Party will be an Umbrella party that promotes equality, democracy & accountability, without any ideological slants. It should be centrist, because we don’t want any boring Left vs. Right squabbling at that stage. Once you institute the structure, start educating the members on their rights and their obligations as citizens. Convince them to bring their friends and relatives into meeting. Establish voters’ critical mass , all under that party.

The Egyptian Unity Party, however, will not be a permanent structure, but rather a transitional entity with a clear and direct purpose: create the grassroots organization to take back the parliament and presidency in the next elections. Once sufficient votes and seats have been obtained, the party will amend the constitution to promote civil liberties, plurality, and truly democratic elections. Once that constitution is in place, the party can disband, and its elected members can start forming their own parties and collations, based on their personal beliefs and ideologies, or they can join any of the existing parties, and breathe some life into their decaying carcasses. We will end up with an actual political process and representative political parties that will actually discuss policy and have to represent those who voted for them so that they can get re-elected. Democracy in action. An old but brilliant concept. A way to ensure that no matter what, we will have a huge influence on who becomes the next Egyptian President come election day in September.

That sounds awesome. The only problem is that during revolutionary crises the most highly organized factions often seize power through divide, conquer and assassination politics. We know now that Egypt's Arab street will not be silenced. But the shape of developments is still extremely fluid, and given the left's heavy investment and mobilization in the Muslim Brotherhood, a certain caution is well warranted.

Russian Jet Crashes in Egypt, Killing 224 People (VIDEO)

Boy, you can bet there's going to be monstrous conspiracy theories.

At WSJ, "Russian Passenger Jet Crashes in Egypt’s Sinai Peninsula, Killing 224 People":

A Russian passenger jet crashed in Egypt’s Sinai Peninsula, killing all 224 people on board, after losing contact with aviation authorities on Saturday.

Egyptian officials said the Airbus A321 jetliner, which was operated by Russian carrier Kogalymavia, was flying to St. Petersburg from Sharm El Sheikh, a resort town popular with Russian tourists, when it disappeared from radar screens.

Egypt’s flagship state-run newspaper, Al Ahram, quoted an Egyptian aviation official as saying the plane’s pilot had requested to land at the nearest airport after an unspecified mechanical problem shortly after taking off at 5:50 a.m. local time. The newspaper later cited another Egyptian aviation official as saying the pilot hadn’t made any distress calls or requests to land.

Egypt’s chief prosecutor said the cause of the crash was being investigated. He didn’t say whether terrorism was suspected.

Sinai Province, the Egyptian branch of Islamic State, claimed responsibility for downing the plane, but officials have cast doubt over whether the group has the capabilities to carry out such an attack. Islamic State and its affiliated groups have frequently made exaggerated claims.

Russian President Vladimir Putin ordered Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev to form a state commission to investigate the crash, the Kremlin said Saturday.

The Russian Embassy in Cairo said on its official Twitter account that all those on board were killed.

Mr. Putin “expressed his deepest sympathies to the families of those who died in the crash.”

The wreckage was located south of the city of Al Arish in the sparsely populated, mountainous north Sinai, according to the aviation authority. As many as 50 ambulances were dispatched, it said.

A spokesman for Egypt’s prime minister said 15 bodies had been recovered and sent to a morgue in Cairo, while investigators continued to search the crash site for evidence and victims. One of the black boxes, which record flight data and audio, was located and taken into the custody of the prosecutor general’s office, he said.

According to the spokesman, the passengers comprised 214 Russians and three Ukrainians, of which 138 were women, 62 men and 17 children. The count didn’t include the seven crew members.

According to the Kremlin, Vladimir Puchkov, Russia’s minister of civil defense, emergencies and disaster relief, was ordered to send aircraft to Egypt to aid in the recovery of the wreckage of the aircraft. Russia’s Emergencies Ministry said five aircraft were flying to Egypt with first responders and forensic investigators on board. The ministry also set up a hot line to aid families of the victims.

The U.S. Federal Aviation Administration in March warned U.S. airlines to avoid flying over the Sinai Peninsula below 26,000 feet. Airline routes traversing the region “are at risk from potential extremist attacks involving antiaircraft weapons,” the FAA said, including shorter-range, shoulder-fired antiaircraft missiles. “Some of these weapons have the capability to target aircraft at high altitudes,” or when approaching or departing airports, the U.S. aviation regulator said, noting that an Egyptian military helicopter flying at lower altitudes had been downed by extremists using a missile...

More.

Also at Russia Today, "Bodies of 224 7K9268 crash victims delivered to Cairo morgue," and "Russian A321 fell 'almost vertically', technical fault behind crash."

Morsi's Ouster Fuels Debate About U.S. Middle East Policy

Actually, we've been having a debate on Middle East policy since this presidential amateur took office.

At the Los Angeles Times, "Morsi's ouster fuels debate on U.S. policy on the Mideast":

Egyptians smarter than Americans Re OBAMA pic.twitter.com/pqOIyjrxfQ

— LeahR (@LeahR77) July 2, 2013

WASHINGTON — The military overthrow of the democratically elected government in Egypt, for decades America's most important Arab ally, has rekindled a fierce debate about whether the Obama administration's Mideast policy has been too passive and ineffective.

President Obama declared that U.S. allegiance was to "democratic principles" after Egypt's military ousted President Mohamed Morsi on Wednesday, but critics charge that the White House made only halfhearted attempts to steer Morsi's increasingly authoritarian government toward democracy, rule of law and respect for human rights.

"They've been late, and slow, and not taken these problems seriously," Michele Dunne, a former State Department official and administration advisor on Egypt who now heads the nonpartisan Atlantic Council's Rafik Hariri Center for the Middle East, said Friday.

Obama repeatedly failed "to use leverage to ensure that Egyptian authorities adhere to democratic principles," the Project on Middle East Democracy, an advocacy group in Washington, said in a statement.

The critics, who include Democratic foreign policy stalwarts as well as Republicans, say the upheaval in Egypt, on top of the administration's inability to stem the civil war in Syria or persuade Iran to curb its nuclear program, adds a blot to Obama's foreign policy record.

They blame, in part, Obama's desire to reduce America's overseas commitments after a decade of war, along with his apparent effort to pull back from a leadership position in favor of a more supporting role in the Middle East.

Administration officials say in their defense that Washington has limited influence in Egypt's domestic affairs and that visible efforts to apply U.S. pressure can backfire. They say they have dealt with key political players but have often kept their diplomacy quiet to avoid inflaming Egypt's polarized political environment.

After President Hosni Mubarak was toppled in an "Arab Spring" uprising in February 2011, the White House tried to encourage a transition to democracy. In national elections in June 2012, Morsi won 52% of the presidential vote and his party — the political arm of the Muslim Brotherhood — won 48% in parliamentary elections.

Morsi cooperated with Obama in working out a cease-fire between Israel and the Palestinian militant group Hamas in November, and White House aides hoped for a relationship with Cairo that could be a model for other Islamist-dominated countries. The chief focus was security cooperation, including joint counter-terrorism operations and support for Egypt's peace treaty with Israel.

Critics now say the U.S. focus on security meant the White House was unwilling to push back when Egypt's military abused human rights, including ordering military trials for 10,000 civilians accused in connection with the 2011 protests, and when the Morsi government began trying to monopolize power.

More at the link.

'Let the People of Egypt Vote'

Via Ahmed Al Omran on Twitter:

She's Saudi, apparently, but a precocious little thing like this is the face of modernity for the Middle East.

And in other news, some conservatives and libertarians are still resisting democratic change in Egypt. Sure, no doubt ElBaradei is a poor prospect, although I'm still waiting to see who will form a viable secular opposition. And as I noted previously, we saw ElBaradei shilling for the Muslim Brotherhood yesterday on CNN. So let's be clear about no illusions here. I've chronicled the risks over the last few days. But as Victor Davis Hanson pointed out, Mubarak's regime is the ultimate source of popular discontent, and maintaining the status quo will simply exacerbate the rage on the street. Building on that sentiment is Danielle Pletka, "How Should the US Respond to the Protests in the Middle East?":

Some say that a freedom agenda only opens the door to Islamists; the truth is that our support for secular dictators does more for Islamists than democracy promotion ever did. We have an opportunity to right our ways and stand with the people of the Middle East - not forgetting Iran - in their quest for basic freedom. But it's going to take more than bland statements and White House hand-wringing. The president himself needs to stand up and unequivocally make clear America's position: in favor of the people over their oppressors. Suspend aid to the Egyptian government. Initiate an immediate review of all programs in the Middle East. Get the word out to our diplomats. Now.

See also, Michael Rubin, "The U.S. Should Not Fear Egypt Regime Change":

Today, the U.S. is paying the price for its refusal to cultivate liberal opposition. Next to Iraq and Afghanistan, Egypt hosts the largest American embassy in the world. That no American diplomat saw this uprising coming, however, should raise serious questions about how our embassies operate. That the Muslim Brotherhood presents a real challenge to American policy is undeniable. In neither Tunisia nor Egypt, however, have Islamists led the popular protests, although there is a risk that the Brotherhood may co-opt the protests. The mistake the White House has made in the past - both under Bush and Obama - is that it has accepted the rhetoric of democracy and liberalism without setting tough standards. Militias should never be accepted as political parties, nor should any group that legitimizes terrorism ever have America's imprimatur. The sooner the White House and State Department engage non-violent opposition groups in the Middle East, the more influence the U.S. will enjoy when the going gets rough and the dictators get going.

That's one way to tackle the Muslim Brotherhood question, and while sweet-sounding and wonkish, it's not satisfying in the short term. Jihad Watch reports that the Muslim Brotherhood has pledged war with Israel in the advent of power: "Muslim Brotherhood Leader: Prepare for War with Israel."

Things are still really up in the air. See Business Week, "Egypt’s Suleiman to Seek Dialogue With Opposition," and New York Times, "Government Offers Talks After Army Says It Will Not Fire." But see Foreign Policy, "White House Prepares for Life After Mubarak." Also at Memeorandum.

Anyway, I'll have more later.

And no, I'm not a socialist.

PREVIOUSLY: "Move Quickly on Egypt Democracy."

Added: From Laura Rozen, "Egypt VP Suleiman, Defense chief preparing transition from Mubarak rule, analyst says."

Facing the Unknown in Egypt

From Ross Douthat, at New York Times, "The Devil We Know":

As the world ponders the fate of Egypt after Hosni Mubarak, Americans should ponder this: It’s quite possible that if Mubarak had not ruled Egypt as a dictator for the last 30 years, the World Trade Center would still be standing.

This is true even though Mubarak’s regime has been a steadfast U.S. ally, a partner in our counterterrorism efforts and a foe of Islamic radicalism. Or, more aptly, it’s true because his regime has been all of these things.

In “The Looming Tower,” his history of Al Qaeda, Lawrence Wright raises the possibility that “America’s tragedy on September 11 was born in the prisons of Egypt.” By visiting imprisonment, torture and exile upon Egypt’s Muslim Brotherhood, Mubarak foreclosed any possibility of an Islamic revolution in his own country. But he also helped radicalize and internationalize his country’s Islamists, pushing men like Ayman Al-Zawahiri — Osama bin Laden’s chief lieutenant, and arguably the real brains behind Al Qaeda — out of Egyptian politics and into the global jihad.

At the same time, Mubarak’s relationship with Washington has offered constant vindication for the jihadi worldview. Under his rule, Egypt received more American dollars than any country besides Israel. For many young Egyptians, restless amid political and economic stagnation, it’s been a short leap from hating their dictator to hating his patrons in the United States. One of the men who made this leap was an architecture student named Mohamed Atta, who was at the cockpit when American Airlines Flight 11 hit the World Trade Center.

These sound like good reasons to welcome Mubarak’s potential overthrow, and the end to America’s decades-long entanglement with his drab, repressive regime. Unfortunately, Middle Eastern politics is never quite that easy. The United States supported Mubarak for so long because of two interrelated fears: the fear of another Khomeini and the fear of another Nasser. Both anxieties remain entirely legitimate today.

RTWT.

Douthat is right to say that, in the end, the Egyptians have the last word on what government is right for them. But looking at the clip above, with the "we have to destroy Israel" sentiment, it's gonna be a rocky road ahead.

And here's an exit question. Do you think the signatories of this "Open Letter to President Barack Obama" are saying the same thing?

In order for the United States to stand with the Egyptian people it must approach Egypt through a framework of shared values and hopes, not the prism of geostrategy. On Friday you rightly said that “suppressing ideas never succeeds in making them go away.” For that reason we urge your administration to seize this chance, turn away from the policies that brought us here, and embark on a new course toward peace, democracy and prosperity for the people of the Middle East. And we call on you to undertake a comprehensive review of US foreign policy on the major grievances voiced by the democratic opposition in Egypt and all other societies of the region.

A number of prominent communists are signatories. And for the left, this is an anti-colonial revolution with explicitly anti-Zionist goals attached to it. (I'll scour around for more, but you'll get a chill reading some posts at Mondweiss. For example, "This revolution ‘undoubtedly means the end of Israel as a Jewish state’.")

That's frightening. Still, there's obviously no turning back on revolutionary change. The trick is to manage it. The goal is a reasonably secular interim government committed to democracy.

Expect updates ....

Egypt Protests: Sunday Morning, January 30th, Cairo

Journalist Danny Ramadan tweets:

"Cairo, 7.30AM on Sunday 30th of Jan, curfew is about to end and two people are on Qasr al-Aini."

And some additional photos from Danny Ramadan. The ruling party headquarters on the 28th:

Protesters and a tank:

The battle for Qasri Nile bridge:

Innocent bystanders are beaten:

Retreat from the bridge:

Mohamed ElBaradei Named Egyptian Prime Minister — UPDATED!

The Washington Post reports, "ElBaradei named Egyptian prime minister" (via Memeorandum).

UPDATE: Here's the headline now at the same WaPo piece, "ElBaradei’s appointment as Egyptian prime minister rolled back amid dispute."

He's not PM. That was soooo 3 hrs ago. RT ‏@Cirincione Appointment of @ElBaradei as interim PM is the best news out of Egypt in a long time.
— Nima Shirazi (@WideAsleepNima) July 6, 2013

The irony is that Egypt has just been named the world's Number 2 failed states basket case by none other than ElBaradei himself, at the new Foreign Policy, "'You Can't Eat Sharia'":

Two years after the revolution that toppled a dictator, Egypt is already a failed state. According to the Failed States Index, in the year before the uprising we ranked No. 45. After Hosni Mubarak fell, we worsened to 31st. I haven't checked recently -- I don't want to get more depressed. But the evidence is all around us.

Today you see an erosion of state authority in Egypt. The state is supposed to provide security and justice; that's the most basic form of statehood. But law and order is disintegrating. In 2012, murders were up 130 percent, robberies 350 percent, and kidnappings 145 percent, according to the Interior Ministry. You see people being lynched in public, while others take pictures of the scene. Mind you, this is the 21st century -- not the French Revolution!

The feeling right now is that there is no state authority to enforce law and order, and therefore everybody thinks that everything is permissible. And that, of course, creates a lot of fear and anxiety.

You can't expect Egypt to have a normal economic life under such circumstances. People are very worried. People who have money are not investing -- neither Egyptians nor foreigners. In a situation where law and order is spotty and you don't see institutions performing their duties, when you don't know what will happen tomorrow, obviously you hold back. As a result, Egypt's foreign reserves have been depleted, the budget deficit will be 12 percent this year, and the pound is being devalued. Roughly a quarter of our youth wake up in the morning and have no jobs to go to. In every area, the economic fundamentals are not there.

Egypt could risk a default on its foreign debt over the next few months, and the government is desperately trying to get a credit line from here and there -- but that's not how to get the economy back to work. You need foreign investment, you need sound economic policies, you need functioning institutions, and you need skilled labor.

So far, however, the Egyptian government has only offered a patchwork vision and ad hoc economic policies, with no steady hand at the helm of the state. The government adopted some austerity measures in December to satisfy certain IMF requirements, only to repeal them by morning. Meanwhile, prices are soaring and the situation is becoming untenable, particularly for the nearly half of Egyptians who live on less than $2 a day.

And the truth is, ElBaradei's no moderate. He's an anti-American U.N. bureaucrat shilling for the Muslim Brotherhood.

Plus ça change, plus c'est la même chose. See FrontPage Magazine, "The Muslim Brotherhood’s Mask: Mohammed El-Baradei."

Egypt Launches Post-Coup Crackdown

At WSJ, "Egypt Military Launches Crackdown: Army Reasserts Authority, Arresting Islamist Leaders and Installing New President":

CAIRO—Egypt's military reclaimed its role as the country's dominant political force as it installed a new president and pressed for the arrests of Islamist leaders it had forced from power, deepening international concern for the stability and democratic future of the largest country in the Arab world.

A day after the army seized on antigovernment protests to overthrow President Mohammed Morsi, Egypt's first freely elected president, a dozen fighter jets buzzed downtown Cairo with trails of red, white and black smoke, the colors of the Egyptian flag.

As the military sounded a victorious chord, Mr. Morsi and some top Muslim Brotherhood allies were already in police custody and the Islamist organization was reviving its longtime role as an opposition force, organizing large-scale nationwide protests for Friday.

The military's sudden recalibration of political forces followed an outpouring of popular discontent with Mr. Morsi and the Brotherhood's Freedom and Justice Party. An array of voices backed those protests, among them a contingent of re-emergent loyalists to Hosni Mubarak, who was ousted by a popular revolution—with military support—over two years ago.

Some of those former Mubarak loyalists have re-emerged to take new roles in the transition ahead, according to people close to discussions between the military and anti-Morsi activists.

That transition—and a new era of potential turmoil—kicked off on Thursday with the swearing-in of military-appointed president Adly Mansour, a judge who had been named head of the Supreme Constitutional Court on Monday. Mr. Mansour took two oaths on Thursday morning: The first made him chief justice and the second elevated him to the presidency. Mr. Mansour is to remain president until new elections are held, at an unspecified date, according to the military's transition plan. The military has also suspended Egypt's new constitution, which was drafted by the Muslim Brotherhood-dominated Constituent Assembly and signed into law by Mr. Morsi in December, after a national referendum.

In a sign of this week's reversal of fortunes, Egypt's acting attorney general on Thursday issued arrest warrants for Muslim Brotherhood supreme leader Mohamed Badie and his deputy, Khairat al Shater, according to Mena, the state news agency. The two are wanted on charges of inciting the killing of eight protesters in front of the Brotherhood's headquarters in Cairo.

Continue reading.

And at LAT, "Egypt military cracks down on Muslim Brotherhood."

Chaos Grips Egypt — Again

At Reuters, "Violence deepens Egypt turmoil, deposed leader probed for murder."

And the New York Times, "Violence Erupts After Mass Rallies Over Fate of Egypt."

And here's the kicker, "Aid to Egypt Can Keep Flowing, Despite Overthrow, White House Decides":

WASHINGTON — The Obama administration has concluded it is not legally required to determine whether the Egyptian military engineered a coup d’état in ousting President Mohamed Morsi, a senior administration official said Thursday, a finding that will allow it to continue to funnel $1.5 billion in American aid to Egypt each year.

The legal opinion, submitted to the White House by lawyers from the State Department and other agencies, amounts to an escape hatch for President Obama and his advisers, who had concluded that cutting off financial assistance could destabilize Egypt at an already fragile moment and would pose a threat to neighbors like Israel.

The senior official did not describe the legal reasoning behind the finding, saying only, “The law does not require us to make a formal determination as to whether a coup took place, and it is not in our national interest to make such a determination.”

“We will not say it was a coup, we will not say it was not a coup, we will just not say,” the official said.

The most corrupt administration in history, completely lawless.

Previous Egypt blogging is here, with plenty of chaos.

Protests Escalate in Egypt — U.S. Stands by in Realpolitik Mode

At Foreign Policy, "Egypt's Struggle for Freedom: Egyptians are taking to the streets to demand their rights. Shame on America if it stands in the way." Yeah. Shame. But typical of this administration's foreign policy. See Christian Science Monitor, "Joe Biden says Egypt's Mubarak no dictator, he shouldn't step down..." (Via Memeorandum.) And at New York Times, "Cables Show Delicate U.S. Dealings With Egypt’s Leaders":

It was Hillary Rodham Clinton’s first meeting as secretary of state with President Hosni Mubarak, in March 2009, and the Egyptians had an odd request: Mrs. Clinton should not thank Mr. Mubarak for releasing an opposition leader from prison because he was ill.

In fact, a confidential diplomatic cable signed by the American ambassador to Egypt, Margaret Scobey, advised Mrs. Clinton to avoid even mentioning the name of the man, Ayman Nour, even though his imprisonment in 2005 had been condemned worldwide, not least by the Bush administration.

The cable is among a trove of dispatches made public by the antisecrecy group WikiLeaks that paint a vivid picture of the delicate dealings between the United States and Egypt, its staunchest Arab ally. They show in detail how diplomats repeatedly raised concerns with Egyptian officials about jailed dissidents and bloggers, and kept tabs on reports of torture by the police.

But they also reveal that relations with Mr. Mubarak warmed up because President Obama played down the public “name and shame” approach of the Bush administration. A cable prepared for a visit by Gen. David H. Petraeus in 2009 said the United States, while blunt in private, now avoided “the public confrontations that had become routine over the past several years.”

This balancing of private pressure with strong public support for Mr. Mubarak has become increasingly tenuous in recent days. Throngs of angry Egyptians have taken to the streets and the White House, worried about being identified with a reviled regime, has challenged the president publicly.

It's a delicate business all around, but it's particularly interesting that this administration is the unrivaled champion of reactionary forces in the Middle East. Notice the various lines of Obama's FUBAR foreign policy. The administration has dropped "name and shame" against Arab dictatorships while browbeating Israel, the only democracy in the region (notwithstanding Iraq). Amazing. We help keep in power authoritarian regimes in Egypt and Iran, while strengthening the same forces of reaction against the one state standing as the West's bulwark against Islamist fanaticism. I'm shaking my head at this, but again, international affairs is a nasty business. And the Obama team's obviously working against a steep learning curve.

And check The Lede for excellent coverage.

Yusuf al-Qaradawi Raises Danger of Islamist Regime in Egypt

I saw this the other day at New York Times, "After Long Exile, Sunni Cleric Takes Role in Egypt." Folks will want to read it all, although this passage is telling:

An intellectual inspiration to the outlawed Muslim Brotherhood, Sheik Qaradawi was jailed in Egypt three times for his ties to the group and spent most of his life abroad.

Otherwise, the Times paints al-Qaradawi as largely moderate, with his extremism toward Israel and the U.S. painted as legitimate resistance. But William Jacobson's having none of it, "NY Times Whitewashes Return of Anti-Semitic Egyptian Cleric." And linked there is MEMRI's coverage of al-Qaradawi's speech Friday:

In a special mention of the Palestinian issue, Al-Qaradhawi asked the Egyptian army to open wide the Rafah crossing and to pray for the re-conquest of Jerusalem by the Muslims, so that he and the Muslims could pray in security at Al-Aqsa Mosque. This part of his sermon was cheered and applauded by the crowd.

This is exactly what the Israeli government feared, and possible developments like this were discounted by the most euphoric advocates of regime change. William has more on that, "The Yuppie Revolution In Egypt Is Over, The Islamist Revolution Has Begun" (via Memeorandum). Check the discussion there. What's especially interesting is how Google's executive Wael Ghonim, who was widely feted by the press during the protests, was shuffled to the sidelines Friday by al-Qaradawi's security.

Blazing Cat Fur has this video, which is chilling:

And events seem to be proving Barry Rubin prophetic. See, "Egypt Gets its Khomeini":

Up until now, the Egyptian revolution generally, and the Brotherhood in particular, has lacked a charismatic thinker, someone who could really mobilize the masses. Qaradawi is that man.

Friday, February 18 may be a turning point in Egyptian history. On that day Yusuf al-Qaradawi spoke to a giant cheering crowd in Tahrir Square.

He praised the army – to ward off it’s repression and to encourage it to support a transformation of the country.

He preached caution and patience, working with the army.

And he also lavished praise on the pro-Islamist chairman of the committee to write the new constitution, which may not be a good sign at all.

There is one easily missed word in his speech that is the most significant. That word is “hypocrites.” In the Islamist lexicon, hypocrites means Muslims who do not practice “true” Islam according to the radicals. To take Egypt out of the hands of “hypocrites” is to put it onto the hands of the Muslim Brotherhood – or at least similarly minded people – which, contrary to the best and the brightest policy makers, intelligence analysts, experts and journalists, is not a moderate organization.

History may show that while president Jimmy Carter may have “lost” Iran, one of his successors may have helped give away Egypt. Is that alarmist? I hope so.

Watch and see.

As so often happens, Israel will be left to pay the bill ...

Yep. Chilling.

More at the link.

RELATED: At Power Line, "Bad Vibrations From Cairo."

Egypt's Neoconservative Moment

Rep. Thaddeus McCotter's is just about the lone GOP voice favoring the pro-Mubarak status quo. Allahpundit is skeptical of McCotter, although Robert Stacy McCain's taking the Burkean angle, cautioning, well, caution. Robert cites Jim Geraghty at National Review, who I don't recall boasting of big neocon credentials, but he's right on with this, "Why Would an American President Tout Mubarak’s Regime?":

As of this writing, the Mubarak regime appears to be tottering. He’s 82 years old and has had health problems. Even if he survives this challenge to his power. Mubarak will be gone someday; even if we preserve the status quo, we can’t preserve it for too much longer. And the status quo isn’t that great for American interests (when we’re the perpetual scapegoat in Egypt’s media).

It was shameful for Obama to hesitate and dawdle before endorsing the Iranian protesters, and it creates the awkward precedent for the Obama administration speaking sooner, and more positively, about protests against the government of an ally. But in the end, why would an American president tout the virtues of a regime that shoots unarmed protesters? Let Mubarak fall. He’s had his chance, and he has failed the Egyptian people.

Exactly.

I've obviously come out for revolutionary change, for example, "Revolt in Egypt: It's Freedom, Stupid," and "If Mubarak is Toppled?"

Now what's particularly interesting to me is the response on the left to what folks are calling a victory for George W. Bush's freedom agenda. See "George W. Bush in Egypt." Barbara O'Brien can't stand it, and she then somehow finds the Obama administration on the right side of history. Not. See the Washington Post, for example, to the contrary, "The U.S. needs to break with Mubarak now." That's not very nuanced, but Barbara O'Brien's not too bright. That said, here's Elliot Abrams, "Egypt protests show George W. Bush was right about freedom in the Arab world":

For decades, the Arab states have seemed exceptions to the laws of politics and human nature. While liberty expanded in many parts of the globe, these nations were left behind, their "freedom deficit" signaling the political underdevelopment that accompanied many other economic and social maladies. In November 2003, President George W. Bush laid out this question:

"Are the peoples of the Middle East somehow beyond the reach of liberty? Are millions of men and women and children condemned by history or culture to live in despotism? Are they alone never to know freedom and never even to have a choice in the matter?"

The massive and violent demonstrations underway in Egypt, the smaller ones in Jordan and Yemen, and the recent revolt in Tunisia that inspired those events, have affirmed that the answer is no and are exploding, once and for all, the myth of Arab exceptionalism. Arab nations, too, yearn to throw off the secret police, to read a newspaper that the Ministry of Information has not censored and to vote in free elections. The Arab world may not be swept with a broad wave of revolts now, but neither will it soon forget this moment.

And even if we give the administration the benefit of the doubt (and considering Barack Obama's abandonment of Iran in 2009, that's being generous), I think the Wall Street Journal captures the right frame:

The best course at this late date is for U.S. officials to keep their words and attention focused on the process of political and civil reform. Our stake in Egypt is not in any one ruler but in a transition from dictatorship to a more stable representative government that can better meet the aspirations of Egyptians.

Secretary of State Hillary Clinton is right to call for the government to restrain the police and stop blocking the Internet, but it doesn't help when Vice President Joe Biden denies the obvious fact that Mr. Mubarak is a "dictator." The post-Mubarak era is coming one way or another, and the U.S. can't be seen as the authoritarian's last friend.

Check back for updates ...

Troops Open Fire on Morsi Supporters

At the Los Angeles Times, "Egypt unrest: Troops open fire on ex-President Morsi's supporters." And from the photo caption there, "The body of a supporter of ousted Egyptian President Mohamed Morsi lies on the ground after he was shot dead during clashes in Cairo."

And at the New York Times, "Video Shows Shooting of Protester in Egypt."

Photo here.

That dude is f-ked up.

More, "Egypt Protests Turn Increasingly Violent."

Earlier, "Egypt Launches Post-Coup Crackdown."

Added: ColorMeRed on Twitter warns to be cautious about MSM accounts of the violence, and posts this video to show that Muslim Brotherhood cadres may be killing anti-Morsi protesters.

Also at Pat Dollard's, FWIW, "WATCH: Muslim Brotherhood Shoots at Civilians So Cops Will Be Blamed."

And see the Heritage Foundation, "Q&A on Egypt: James Carafano."

3:50pm PST: At London's Daily Mail, "Egypt in chaos: 10 dead as protesters marching on barracks where ousted president Morsi is held are met by tanks on 'Friday of rage'."

4:08pm PST: At the New York Times, "Social Media Updates on Clashes in Cairo."

And from revolutionary socialist Tarek Shalaby:

Chants for Sisi at Hilton Ramses hotel - the frontline of the clashes. This is a sorry sight. #Tahrir

— Tarek Shalaby (@tarekshalaby) July 5, 2013

Left #Tahrir. MB have substantial bird shots on them, but there are weapons on both sides and no presence of army or police to stop. #June30

— Tarek Shalaby (@tarekshalaby) July 5, 2013

And from CNN's Ben Wedeman:

Must watch Video: Morsi supporters threatening terrorism, Christians, Sisi, etc., etc., etc. http://t.co/20nco1GvM6 #Egypt #30June #June30

— benwedeman (@bencnn) July 5, 2013

Egypt and the Realists

Following up on "Egypt and the End of History," here's this from the Wall Street Journal:

For most of recent diplomatic history, American policy in the Mideast has tended to emphasize the stability of friendly regimes over the democratic aspirations of Arab populations. This approach is sometimes called foreign policy realism. The reality on the streets in Egypt is one result.

In the week since demonstrations began against Hosni Mubarak's regime, that U.S. ally and the Arab world's largest state has been gripped by disorder and uncertainty. Mr. Mubarak said last night he won't seek re-election later this year, though he intends to remain in power until then to negotiate a peaceful transition. This announcement is welcome, though it may not be enough at this late date to satisfy an opposition that now controls the streets. Other than the army, the group best organized to run Egypt if order breaks down is the Islamist and anti-American Muslim Brotherhood.

So much for that vaunted stability.

.....

In Egypt ... the Obama Administration has been caught on its back foot, scrambling to keep up with events. Some of the same people who reviled Mr. Bush for pushing democracy—Senator John Kerry—are now even saying the U.S. should demand Mr. Mubarak's ouster. Yesterday in advance of Mr. Mubarak's remarks, White House officials leaked that Mr. Obama had urged the Egyptian not to run for re-election—another frantic effort to get some political credit for events that were already inevitable and still may be too little, too late.

Now our policy choices are few and risky. How much better positioned would we be in Egypt today if we were able to take some credit for the calls for freedom and democratic change?

As always, we need to balance both goals, the need for stability and the aspirations for human freedom. Actually, I doubt either would be possible with Mubarak in power. But given that American policy on Egypt wasn't ahead of demands for freedom, pragmatism now calls for slow change. Remember to guard against the Islamists taking power, but don't get romantic about our alliance with the dictator.

Protests Against Mohammed Morsi

AT Telegraph UK, "Violence breaks out across Egypt as protesters decry Mohammed Morsi's constitutional 'coup'":

Violence broke out in cities across Egypt yesterday (Friday) as demonstrators took to the streets and besieged Muslim Brotherhood offices in anger at authoritarian new powers seized by President Mohammed Morsi.

Headquarters of the Muslim Brotherhood’s political front, the Freedom and Justice Party, were ransacked and burned in Alexandria, Port Said and Ismailiya. Protesters described Mr Morsi as “Egypt’s new pharaoh” and said his declaration on Thursday night was a “constitutional coup”.

In Cairo, the biggest demonstrations for months filled Tahrir Square, reviving the spirit and chants of last year’s revolution against the country’s former leader, ex-President Hosni Mubarak. “Out, out,” the crowd chanted. The people want the downfall of the regime.”

Mr Morsi publicly defended his decision to make his decrees unchallengeable by law as necessary to complete Egypt’s transformation. He told a crowd of supporters gathered in front of the presidential palace that he was trying to stop a “minority” trying to “block the revolution”.

He also alleged that money stolen under the old regime was being used to fund new protests, including by "thugs" - a politically loaded term suggesting that the pro-democracy protesters were the same as Mr Mubarak's hired henchmen.

"There are weevils eating away at the nation of Egypt," he told them, insisting that he by contrast, was trying to assure "political stability, social stability and economic stability".

"I have always been, and still am, and will always be, God willing, with the pulse of the people, what the people want, with clear legitimacy," he said.

Mr Morsi, fresh from his success in negotiating a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas on Wednesday night, made the unexpected announcement of his new powers on Thursday.

As noted earlier, developments in Egypt are of huge, structural significance and will have deep impact on U.S. foreign policy. I'll have more later, but meanwhile check out Barry Rubin, "News Flash: Egypt’s Islamist President Assumes Dictatorial Powers." (Via Memeorandum.)

Military Ousts Mohamed Morsi in Egypt

Al Jazeera's live feed is here.

And at the Lede blog, "The Lede: Latest Updates on Egypt’s Political Crisis."

Also at Legal Insurrection, "Morsi removed from power by military in Egypt."

And at the Wall Street Journal, "Egyptian Military Removes President: Morsi Rejects Move; Court Official Installed as Constitution Is Suspended":

CAIRO—The leader of Egypt's military ousted President Mohammed Morsi from office and replaced him with the head of the country's constitutional court—a move the presidential palace quickly branded a "complete military coup."

The announcements capped days of political crisis that brought millions of Egyptians out to the country's streets, spurring bellicose rhetoric from Mr. Morsi's backers and Egypt's military, and sparking deadly violence. Egyptians remained on the squares on Wednesday evening, the stark divides between their celebration and anger suggesting a new period of political uncertainty ahead.

In a terse televised statement Wednesday evening, Defense Secretary Gen. Abdel Fattah Al Sisi—joined by important Muslim, Coptic and oppositionchiefs—announced Mr. Morsi's ouster. The head of Egypt's highest court—Adly Mansour, a judge who was named to the position only two days earlier—would take over from Mr. Morsi effective immediately, he said.

Mr. Mansour is tasked with leading a technocratic government that will be "inclusive of all political factions" including youth, who Gen. Sisi said would be "empowered" under the terms of the new government.

Gen. Sisi also suspended the constitution that Mr. Morsi and his Islamist allies pushed through late last year in a controversial referendum, and charged the Supreme Constitutional Court with addressing the draft law for parliamentary elections.

The military leader—until recently a close ally of Mr. Morsi—said that a committee would be formed to amend the constitution.

Mr. Morsi's office rejected the move, but called on Egyptians to peacefully resist what it called a military coup. Mr. Morsi's statement came hours after he mounted what appeared to be a last-ditch effort to remain in power—offering a plan to form a coalition government to run parliamentary elections, and forming an independent committee to address constitutional amendments and present them to the coming parliament.

Continue reading.

Also at Foreign Affairs, "Foreign Affairs Report: A Year of Morsi."

Foreign Policy has a lot of excellent coverage, for example, "Celebrating a Disaster in Egypt," and "Can a Coup Ever Be Democratic?"

Still more at Memeorandum.

Expect updates ...

'For the first time since Jimmy Carter, we’ve had an American ambassador assassinated...'

The last time an ambassador was killed was in 1979, when Ambassador Adolph Dubs was killed in Afghanistan.

The quote at the headline is from Richard Williamson, an advisor to Mitt Romney's campaign. See Philip Rucker, at the Washington Post, "Romney team sharpens attack on Obama’s foreign policy," via Hugh Hewitt on Twitter:

WaPo's @philiprucker breaks MSM omertà,reports on POTUS Egypt pratfall and Team Romney's critique without slanting washingtonpost.com/politics/decis…
— Hugh Hewitt (@hughhewitt) September 14, 2012

Advisers to Mitt Romney on Thursday defended his sharp criticism of President Obama and said that the deadly protests sweeping the Middle East would not have happened if the Republican nominee were president.

“There’s a pretty compelling story that if you had a President Romney, you’d be in a different situation,” Richard Williamson, a top Romney foreign policy adviser, said in an interview. “For the first time since Jimmy Carter, we’ve had an American ambassador assassinated.”

Williamson added, “In Egypt and Libya and Yemen, again demonstrations — the respect for America has gone down, there’s not a sense of American resolve and we can’t even protect sovereign American property.”

The aggressive approach by Romney’s campaign thrust the issue of foreign policy to the forefront of the presidential campaign a day after the Republican candidate was widely criticized for blasting Obama while U.S. embassies in Egypt and Libya were under attack.

Criticism from Republicans over their nominee’s handling of the situation overseas quieted Thursday, with influential voices in the party’s foreign policy establishment rallying to Romney’s defense. And it was Obama who faced criticism for saying that he did not consider Egypt an ally — a comment that his administration struggled to explain.

“The president can’t even keep track of who’s our ally or not. This is amateur hour — it’s amateur hour,” said Williamson, a former assistant secretary of state and ambassador. He was among those who counseled Romney to respond aggressively on Tuesday night and was offered by the campaign to speak about the candidate’s foreign policy.

Williamson was referring to Obama’s interview Wednesday night with Telemundo in which the president said that the U.S. relationship with Egypt was a “work in progress.”

“I don’t think that we would consider them an ally, but we don’t consider them an enemy,” Obama told Telemundo. “They’re a new government that is trying to find its way.”

Administration officials tried throughout the day to parse Obama’s statement on Egypt without appearing to contradict him.

More at the link.

Muslim Brotherhood's Mohammed Morsi Declared Winner in Egypt's Presidential Election

Well, this is blog-worthy.

The main news stories are at the New York Times, "Morsi Is Winner of Egyptian Presidency," and Telegraph UK, "Muslim Brotherhood's Mohammed Morsi."

And from the blogs, at Atlas Shrugs, "MUSLIM BROTHERHOOD'S MURSI DECLARED EGYPT PRESIDENT," and Legal Insurrection, "Muslim Brotherhood candidate elected President of Egypt."

Plus, an analysis from Jonathan Tobin at Commentary, "U.S. Must Avoid Embrace of Morsi":

Many in the Obama administration may have heaved a sigh of relief this morning when Egypt’s election commission declared Muslim Brotherhood candidate Mohammed Morsi the winner of the country’s presidential election. There were justifiable fears that the Egyptian military would complete the coup d’état it began when the country’s high court tossed the Islamist-controlled parliament out of office by stealing the presidential contest for its preferred candidate. By choosing to attempt to live with the Brotherhood rather than attempt to destroy it, the army may have avoided a bloody civil war that would have drowned Egypt in blood and destabilized the region even further.

But as much as Washington is relieved that the next stage of life in post-Mubarak Egypt will not be one in which the military rules alone, President Obama must resist the impulse to embrace Morsi or to behave in any manner that might lend support to the Brotherhood leader in the power struggle in Cairo that will undoubtedly ensue. As much as the United States should support the principle of democracy, Morsi and his party are no apostles of freedom. Though worries about the U.S. being tainted by association with a military that wishes to perpetuate authoritarian rule are well founded, the danger from a rising tide of Islamism in the wake of the Arab Spring is far more dangerous to American interests.

There's more at the link.

And Tobin links to Eli Lake's piece from earlier, which illustrates the naivety of this administration: "Member of Egyptian Terror Group Goes to Washington."

Plus, lots at Memeorandum.

Egypt's Presidential Election Crisis

At the Wall Street Journal, "Egypt Showdown Gains Momentum: Muslim Brotherhood, Claiming Victory in Presidential Election, Calls Protests and Moves to Reclaim Powers From Military" (via Google):

CAIRO — The Muslim Brotherhood appeared headed for a showdown with Egypt's ruling generals hours after claiming victory in Egypt's first freely contested presidential election, even as the military sought to assure the public it would hand over power.

The Brotherhood, intent on reclaiming some of the powers that the military has claimed for itself in recent days, said it would convene Parliament on Tuesday in defiance of a court order dissolving the body, and called on Egyptians to take to the streets to challenge the military's recent moves to consolidate power.

The calls sets up a possible showdown with security forces who have been ordered to keep all lawmakers from entering the Parliament building.

The Brotherhood's presidential candidate, Mohammed Morsi, and his rival, ex-Prime Minister Ahmed Shafiq, both claimed victory in the weekend vote. But the Brotherhood's precinct-by-precinct reporting of results convinced many analysts it was the more reliable of the two camps, showing Mr. Morsi winning 52% of the vote.

Mr. Shafiq's campaign has claimed victory by the same margin, but hasn't provided numbers of its own to challenge the Morsi campaign's results for any individual precinct.

Instead, Mr. Shafiq's campaign appears to be hoping the Presidential Election Commission will back its allegations of voter fraud and irregularities to tip the race in Mr. Shafiq's favor.

Mr. Shafiq's candidacy was made possible by the commission, which rejected a law passed by the Muslim Brotherhood-dominated Parliament—and approved by the military—that would have banned Mr. Shafiq from running because of his ties to the old regime.

he commission is headed by a judge who was appointed to the Supreme Court by former President Hosni Mubarak and came up as a judge serving in state security courts used to try political dissidents. The commission's decisions are unappealable.

The confrontation with the Brotherhood, brewing for months, has boiled over in just the past week, as the Egyptian state seemed to mobilize on multiple fronts to trim the Brotherhood's political ambitions.

See also Pamela Geller, "Obama Threatens Any Opposition to the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt with the Withdrawal of All U.S. Aid."

But compare to Max Boot, "Let the Brotherhood Rule in Egypt."

I doubt Boot reads Barry Rubin, who's commentary is 100 percent opposite. See: "Muslim Brotherhood Wins Presidency; Egyptian-Islamist/Hamas Jihad Against Israel (Apparently) Begins."

White House Plea for Bipartisanship Blown After President Invents Muslim 'Victims' in Condemns Egypt New Year's Bombing

Here's yesterday's report from WSJ, "Obama Strikes Tone of Bipartisanship, Hope at Dawn of New Year."

But 21 Christians were killed in the New Year's Day car bomb attack on a Coptic church in Alexandria, Egypt, and the president has sent poorly conceived condolences on the "reported deaths and dozens of injured from both the Christian and Muslim communities." Gateway Pundit and Israel Matsav report. Also at Memeorandum. You can't strike a bipartisan tone when you refuse to even consider the fact of Islamist extremism. It's only been one day and the administration's already blown its calls for bipartisanship. See also Cold Fury: "They Can't Handle the Truth."

Added: The Los Angeles Times has an update, "Egypt calls for calm after church bombing; death toll at 25," and this morning's background report, "Coptic church bombing in Egypt is latest assault on Mideast Christians":

All but eight of the injured and all of the fatalities in Alexandria were Christians, according to Egypt's Ministry of Health. No one immediately claimed responsibility for the attack, which was being described as a suicide bombing. The explosion, which appeared designed to inflict maximum civilian casualties, bore the hallmark of Al Qaeda militants.

Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak accused unnamed foreign elements of being behind the attack.

"This act of terrorism shook the country's conscience, shocked our feelings and hurt the hearts of Muslim and Coptic Egyptians," he said in an emergency address to the nation. "The blood of their martyrs in the land of Alexandria mixed to tell us all that all Egypt is the target and that blind terrorism does not differentiate between a Copt and a Muslim."

The attack in the ancient Mediterranean coastal city was the latest in a wave of violence against once-resilient Christian communities in the Muslim world, some of which date back to antiquity.

Christmas Eve assaults by Muslim extremists killed dozens of Christians in the Nigerian cities of Jos and Maiduguri. And Iraq's Christians have endured a relentless campaign of attacks and intimidation by the local branch of Al Qaeda.

An Oct. 31 siege on a Baghdad church that killed at least 58 parishioners and staff members sparked a new Christian exodus from the Iraqi capital and the northern city of Mosul. About 1,000 families sought refuge in Iraq's semiautonomous Kurdish enclave afterward, according to the United Nations. Further threats of violence by Islamic militants caused many Christians in Iraq to tone down Christmas celebrations, and attacks Thursday against 10 Christian targets left an elderly couple dead.

Officials across the Middle East, including the ultraconservative Muslim governments of Iran and Saudi Arabia, condemned Saturday's attack, which was widely covered in television news broadcasts. In an annual New Year's speech at the Vatican, Pope Benedict XVI urged the faithful to stave off despair over such violence, but also demanded that governments do more to protect religious minorities.

"In front of the current threatening tensions, in front of especially the discrimination tyranny and religious intolerance, that today hit in particular the Christians, once again I deliver the pressing invite to not cave in to the depression and resignation," Benedict said, adding that officials' "words are not enough" in confronting religious intolerance.

"There must be a concrete and constant effort from leaders of nations," he said.

Christians are under assault throughout the Middle East and the administration refuses to identify the aims of the attack in Alexandria: to slaughter as many Christians as possible. More at Astute Bloggers, "OBAMA FINALLY CONDEMNS THE JIHADIST ATTACKS AGAINST CHRISTIANS IN NIGERIA AND IRAQ... ER UM... SORT OF."