Wednesday, July 20, 2016

The End of a Murdoch Era

I concur with Chris Cillizza. It's a great read.


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Donald Trump's Battleground Realignment

The key for me is if Trump wins in November. If so, I expect it'll be the beginning of a partisan realignment.

But see Ronald Brownstein, at the Atlantic, "Trump, Clinton, and the Realignment of Battleground States":

CLEVELAND—The tumultuous 2016 presidential race appears poised to realign the states at the tipping point of American politics.

Since Bill Clinton’s first victory in 1992, Democratic presidential candidates have consistently run better in the aging, predominantly white and heavily blue-collar swing states clustered in the Rustbelt than in the younger, more diverse, and increasingly white-collar swing states arrayed across the Sunbelt. That pattern, in fact, has largely shaped presidential races since passage of the Civil Rights Act of 1964 fractured the century-long Democratic control of the “solid South.”

But now public polls and private assessments alike show Donald Trump running more strongly against Hillary Clinton in several of the key Rustbelt battlegrounds than in their Sunbelt counterparts.

With blue-collar whites providing the core of Trump’s support, the Rustbelt has emerged as his most—and perhaps only—plausible path to an Electoral College majority. Simultaneously, Democrats are increasingly viewing Sunbelt states that not long ago were considered safely Republican as the closest thing to a firewall for Clinton, largely because of the resistance to Trump among minorities and white-collar whites. “This shift was probably coming anyway because of the changing demographics of the Sunbelt, but Trump radically accelerates it on both ends,” said long-time Democratic strategist Paul Begala, a senior adviser to the pro-Clinton Priorities USA political action committee.

The trend was underlined last week by the release of a flurry of NBC/Marist College/Wall Street Journal polls that showed Trump even with Clinton in Ohio and just narrowly behind in Iowa, while lagging by virtually identical margins of six to nine percentage points in Virginia, North Carolina, and Florida in the Southeast, and Colorado in the Southwest.

Political strategists in both parties generally rank those four states, plus Nevada, as the five true swing states in the Sunbelt. New Mexico, a sixth Sunbelt state, was competitive during the George W. Bush years, but both sides now place it safely in the Democratic camp. Together, the five most competitive Sunbelt states offer 72 Electoral College votes (led by Florida with 29).

Likewise, strategists identify five Rustbelt states as key battlegrounds: Ohio, Iowa, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Michigan. (The final state that both sides have treated as competitive in recent elections is New Hampshire, which is geographically distant from both clusters, but demographically and economically more closely resembles the battlegrounds in the Rustbelt than the Sunbelt.) The five Rustbelt battlegrounds offer 70 Electoral College votes (led by Pennsylvania with 20).

Just gaining ground in the Rustbelt won’t be enough for Trump if he can’t contain his losses in the Sunbelt. Even if Trump flipped all five of the Rustbelt swing states—each of which backed President Obama over Mitt Romney in 2012—he would still lose the election if he can’t win any of the five Sunbelt swing states, assuming no other states changed hands.

The shifting balance in these two key groups of swing states reflects, above all, the changing demography of each party’s electoral coalition. The working-class white voters underpinning Trump’s support represent a much larger share of the vote across the Rustbelt than the Sunbelt, whether using data from the exit polls or the Census post-election survey (which consistently identifies non-college whites as a large share of the electorate than the exit polls do). The Census results identify non-college whites as at least 54 percent of 2012 voters in all five Rustbelt states—and no more than 44 percent in any of the Sunbelt states. And except for Florida, the Rustbelt states, as a group, are also generally older, at a time when Republicans are dominating among whites older than 45.

Contrasting dynamics are molding the Sunbelt states. Diversity is the most important. The non-partisan States of Change project has projected that from 2008 to 2012 the minority share of eligible voters will rise by more in each of the Sunbelt swing states than in any of the Rustbelt battlegrounds, with the biggest increases registered in Nevada (a stunning 7.3 percentage points), Florida (4.5 points), and Colorado (4.3 points). In each of those states except Colorado, the States of Change model projects that the white share of eligible voters will dip below 70 percent in 2016. By contrast, the model projects that whites will still comprise at least 80 percent of eligible voters this year in all of the Rustbelt swing states except Michigan (where it will dip only to 78 percent).

Democrats have also benefited because college-educated whites, who have been grown warmer toward the party since the 1990s, generally comprise a larger share of the total white vote in the Sunbelt than Rustbelt battlegrounds. While the Census found that whites holding at least a four-year college degree represented only a third or less of all white voters in 2012 in Ohio, Iowa, and Michigan, they comprised at least 45 percent of all whites voting in Virginia and Colorado. (College whites clustered at 36 percent of the total white vote in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Nevada and slightly above that in Florida and North Carolina). This dynamic may prove especially important this year with most national polls showing Clinton even or ahead of Trump among college-educated whites—a group no Democratic presidential nominee has carried in the history of modern polling dating back to 1952.

It’s possible that this evolving geography could tip other states from both buckets  into the competitive category. When the Trump campaign recently identified 17 states as 2016 battlegrounds in a private briefing for a group of congressional Republicans first reported by the Wall Street Journal, it included reliably Democratic Minnesota in the Rustbelt as a state it hoped to contest. It also identified Republican-leaning Arizona and Georgia in the Sunbelt as diverse states it would need to defend. (Somewhat incongruously, it also included red-tinted Missouri and Indiana from the Rustbelt as states it thought it might need to protect.) But at this point few Democrats—including inside Clinton’s campaign—say they believe any of those will become truly competitive.

Obama’s two victories signaled growing Democratic strength in the Sunbelt, but despite some early party fears, displayed no erosion in the Rustbelt: Compared to the 1992 to 2004 period, Obama improved on the Democratic performance in both groups of states. This year, though, the polling raises the possibility that Trump could advance in the Rustbelt and retreat in the Sunbelt, leaving Clinton potentially more reliant on the latter than the former. That would mark a major reversal...
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Ted Cruz Wants His Reagan Moment (VIDEO)

Well, it's going to be interesting, no doubt.

Watch, Fox News, "Lisa Boothe: Ted Cruz wants RNC to be his Reagan moment."

Posted by AmPowerBlog at 4:50 PM 0 comments
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New Britney Spears Photos

Hey, good for her. She's doing really well.


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Louise Mensch Argues Melania Trump's Plagiarism 'Was Obviously Deliberate...'

I doubt it was deliberate.

My argument's that this faux-scandal wasn't going to hurt (and would probably help) the Trump campaign.

But see Louise, at Heat Street:


Posted by AmPowerBlog at 4:15 PM 0 comments
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Cassandra Fairbanks to Back Donald Trump Over Hillary Clinton (VIDEO)

She's a vile woman, but weirdly she's coming over to Donald Trump over Hillary Clinton.

A career demonstrator, folks might remember my run-ins with "Cassandra Rules" from a couple of years ago. She will use violence to intimidate opponents. I don't like her at all, and conservatives should steer clear of the bitch.

Here:


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Communist Protesters Burn American Flag at #RNCinCLE

I'm not sure why the police wouldn't let them burn the flag, other than the cops stepping in to protect the leftists from getting their heads knocked off. They have to right to burn 'em. Indeed, the folks doing it are apparently the same folks behind the 1989 Supreme Court decision in Texas v. Johnson.

Good times, in any case.

At Free Beacon (video).

And from Carolyn Cole, for LAT:

More here, from ABC News 15 Phoenix, "ALL HELL BREAKS LOOSE AT REPUBLICAN NATIONAL CONVENTION: FLAG BURNING - FLAG BURNERS - SCARY."

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Those #NeverTrump Folks are Pretty Hardcore

Heh, just wow.


Posted by AmPowerBlog at 3:25 PM 0 comments
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Historic Boxing Promoter Don King Backs Donald Trump for President (VIDEO)

Crazy good times, lol.

Via Ruptly, "Tear this system apart."



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Deal of the Day: The X-Files: Complete Series Collector's Set

At Amazon, The X-Files: Complete Series Collector's Set + The Event Bundle [Blu-ray].

Plus, from Michael Barone, Hard America, Soft America: Competition vs. Coddling and the Battle for the Nation's Future.

And Ann Coulter, Demonic: How the Liberal Mob Is Endangering America.

More, from Katie Pavlich, Assault and Flattery: The Truth About the Left and Their War on Women.

Kate Obenshain, Divider-in-Chief: The Fraud of Hope and Change.

From Michelle Malkin, Culture of Corruption: Obama and His Team of Tax Cheats, Crooks, and Cronies.

David Limbaugh, The Great Destroyer: Barack Obama's War on the Republic.

BONUS: Kurt Schlichter, Conservative Insurgency.

Posted by AmPowerBlog at 2:10 PM 0 comments
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'Trump's slogan is make America great again. Hillary's slogan is make America California without the nice beaches...'

Not a great endorsement of California, but hey, I'm stuck here for at least another 10 years and my retirement, lol.

It's Ann Coulter, "Ann Coulter warns California Republicans the nation could turn into California."


Posted by AmPowerBlog at 1:55 PM 0 comments
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Devin Brugman and Natasha Oakley at Miami Swim Week 2016

Ms. Devin's my top candidate for American Power's woman of the year for 2016, heh.


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Pixie Lott

At Galore:



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Geert Wilders Endores Donald Trump at 'Gays for Trump' Party at #RNCinCLE (VIDEO)

You gotta love it!

Via Ruptly:



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Braless Millennials is New Fashion Trend

They're not burning their bras, like in the 1960s, so I guess going braless is about as rebellious as they're going to get.

Rebellion for the selfie age.

At USA Today, "Why Millennials are going braless":

Buying a first bra has long been considered a rite of passage for young women. These days, however, it’s the ditching of the undergarment (or wearing wire-free versions) that's empowering female Millennials.

Sure, going braless is nothing new — the concept is at least as old as the women’s liberation movement of the '60s — but young women today aren’t doing it with quite the political fervor as their feminist predecessors. Today, pushing back from push-ups — by wearing an unstructured bra or no bra at all — is a personal triumph, a choice to be comfortable and a trendy move. ShopStyle.com reports a 56% increase this year to date in shopper searches for bralettes alone.

For Victoria's Secret, the trend presents challenges. The retailer's parent company, L Brands Inc., gets about a third of its revenue from bras. L Brands’ shares are down nearly 30% this year so far. Analysts expect adjusted profit to fall 6.3% in the current fiscal year compared with last fiscal year’s levels, says S&P Global Market Intelligence.

According to Gabriella Santaniello, an analyst focused on fashion at A-Line Partners, "(Victoria's Secret's) message has been a very in-your-face sexy message for so many years: You need a push-up, you need to be sexy, models stick out their hip. Now, it’s good to be natural — so they’re a little late to the game."

Going natural and “not wearing a bra is a choice I find empowering and fun, but I think there’s less passion behind it (than when burning bras was done out of political protest),” says poet Savannah Brown, 19 from London, whose popular YouTube video “sav’s guide to going braless” has over half a million views. “It’s just a day-to-day choice (to skip bras or wear bralettes only). It doesn’t play a huge role in my ideology. It’s more of a quiet protest.” ...

The likes of Kendall Jenner, Demi Lovato, Jennifer Lawrence and Rihanna have been photographed in a number of bra-free outfits, from Jenner's thin black shirts shown on Instagram, to Lovato's nothing-under-her-jacket ensembles on the red carpet, Lawrence's bralette style at movie premieres and Rihanna's braless tour attire.

Costume designer Cynthia Summers, who works on Lifetime’s UnReal and Bravo’s Girlfriends’ Guide to Divorce, has incorporated bralette and bra-less looks into her shows..

Girlfriends’ character Phoebe (played by Beau Garrett), who lives in Silver Lake, Calif. and favors low-cut boho-dresses, “is pretty much braless all the time,” says Summers.


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Speechwriter Takes Responsibility for Melania Trump's Plagiarism (VIDEO)

There's video with Andrea Mitchell, at MSNBC, "Donald Trump Rejects Speechwriter's Resignation."

At the New York Times, via Memeorandum, "Melania Trump's Speechwriter Takes Responsibility for Lifted Remarks."


And at USA Today, "Trump aide takes responsibility for Melania speech":

CLEVELAND — A Trump aide has taken responsibility for the controversy over Melania Trump’s speech, saying she offered to resign but Trump rejected it.

In a statement released by the Trump campaign, in-house staff writer (and ghostwriter of multiple books authored by Donald Trump) Meredith McIver said it “was my mistake.”

It took two days for the Trump campaign to even acknowledge that parts of the speech were the same as first lady Michelle Obama's 2008 Democratic convention speech. As recently as Wednesday morning, Trump campaign manager Paul Manafort was denying the overlap in an interview on CNN.

But the press around the speech and the campaign's denial of the obvious overlap in wording was proving to be a significant distraction for the Trump campaign  — although just before McIver's statement, the Republican presidential nominee tweeted that "all press is good press!"


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The Rise of a Judo Queen

At WSJ, "How an American Took Down Judo":
As Kayla Harrison, the only American to win a gold medal in judo, prepared for the Rio Olympics at her coach’s dojo in Wakefield, Mass., in March, she spent most of the morning wrestling on the mat. She practiced pins, chokes, armlocks and other submission moves. In judo, this is called “newaza,” or grappling techniques. Unlike the match-ending throws that lift competitors off their feet and slam them down, newaza isn’t flashy or explosive. In American judo, it’s a religion.

“All over the world, I’ve been to so many training camps and they’ll do three rounds of newaza randori, which is sparring, and then they’ll do 10 rounds of standing sparring,” Harrison said. “That’s where they’re weak, so that’s where we should get good. And we are.”

At the London Games four years ago, three American judokas reached the semifinals of their competitions. Marti Malloy won a bronze in the 125.5-pound division. Harrison, who weighs 165 pounds and competes in the 172-pound division, won gold and has since become the top-ranked judoka in the world for her weight class. She said this would be her last Olympic Games. If she decides to join the Ultimate Fighting Championship, the mixed martial arts competition, she could earn millions. For now, she seems to be leaning toward a life in judo.

“Do I really want to start all over in another sport and have a completely new athletic career at the age of 26?” she said. “I don’t know. I want to stay involved in judo.”

Under current UFC weight classes, Harrison—5 feet 8 inches, broad-shouldered and all muscle—would have to lose 30 pounds. UFC competitors, like Bellator MMA, have higher weight classes.

“Obviously we’re aware of her,” said Dana White, president of the UFC, through a spokesman. “We’ll see what happens.”

Harrison could remain in judo—as a promoter. Until now, the sport’s governing body, USA Judo, has sold few tickets and sponsorships to its national tournament. But it recently signed an agreement for Harrison to run the national championships for five years starting in 2018.

To win gold in Rio, Harrison will need four or five consecutive wins—all in the same day (each fight lasts four minutes). Her event is scheduled for Aug. 11. She’s by no means a lock. Harrison lost early in last year’s world championships and won a bronze in 2014...
Keep reading.

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Tuesday, July 19, 2016

Heather Mac Donald Discusses 'The War on Cops' (VIDEO) [BUMPED]

She's on the Steve Malzberg Show on Newsmax TV.

Watch, "Heather Mac Donald Discusses Her New Book: 'The War on Cops'."

And buy the book, at Amazon, The War on Cops: How the New Attack on Law and Order Makes Everyone Less Safe.

Posted by AmPowerBlog at 5:00 PM 0 comments
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Mixed Signals and Missed Chances on First Day of Republican National Convention

Actually, not too much to disagree with at this analysis, from Cathleen Decker, at the Los Angeles Times, "Day 1 of Donald Trump's convention: Scattered in message, unruly in delivery":

The theme of Monday’s opening night of the Republican National Convention was “Make America Safe Again.” In other words, “Make America Safe from Hillary Clinton.”

Donald Trump, who will accept his party’s nomination Thursday, was barely mentioned by many of the speakers, nor were specifics of the few concrete proposals he has made.

The focus instead was on presumptive Democratic nominee Clinton and Republican fears that she would extend President Obama’s two terms in office.

Criticism of the other side, of course, is always part of the convention lineup. But successful conventions typically have a point — to send a strong message to the Americans who will decide the next president.

Sometimes the candidate needs to be humanized. Sometimes gaps of knowledge need to be filled in. At the least, each convention night provides an hour — more on cable stations — of free television coverage to convey a consistent message.

By that standard, the first night of Donald Trump’s convention was less than fully successful — scattershot in its message and undisciplined in its delivery.

Indeed, the most disciplined moment may have been Trump’s own extremely brief introduction of his wife, Melania.

The evening did have dramatic high points. Bereft parents whose children had been killed by immigrants in the country illegally spoke emotionally. Trump himself appeared, backlit on stage before introducing his wife.

But the night lacked the thematic unity that usually marks a successful production.

Despite the ostensible message of safety, the shootings of and by police that have riveted the nation in recent weeks were barely mentioned, except for in praise of the police. Only one speaker, former New York Mayor Rudolph W. Giuliani, even mentioned civilian deaths and that came amid a screaming, arm-flailing defense of law enforcement.

More than a dozen speakers spent far more time on criticism of Clinton and Obama than on any sustained effort to explain the different direction that Trump would take beyond generalities attesting to his toughness. Even that message was somewhat undercut as Melania Trump talked of her husband’s big heart and cast him as a softie.

Other speakers used language and images of the sort that have tormented the Republican Party in its efforts to expand its reach among general election voters, who are less conservative and less white than those who dominate Republican primaries....

Part of the problem for Republican convention planners is that most of Trump’s plans remain on the drawing board. His campaign has rested on more general statements about the need for economic change, a closing of the borders, lessened trade and a less interventionist policy abroad.

The lack of a specific set of plans that each speaker could hammer home for all four nights of the convention may represent a lost opportunity for Trump — one he can ill afford given that he trails, if narrowly, in most polls and faces a financial deficit in the general election.

Other lost opportunities have been visible as the convention neared.

An interview broadcast Sunday on CBS’s “60 Minutes” designed to showcase the relationship between Trump and his new running mate, Gov. Mike Pence of Indiana, demonstrated the differences between them on key subjects — trade, the Iraq war, negative campaigning.

On Monday morning, rather than remain focused on what he would bring to the country, Trump instead delved into innuendo about President Obama’s loyalties...
Despite all of this, the truly amazing thing is that polls show the presidential horse race remains a virtual dead heat nationally. Hillary's been dropping in the polls, and again, that's after tens of millions in advertising. If Trump somehow wins in November, against all odds, and despite all the gaffes, his ascendance to the Oval Office will have the potential to permanently change the nature and process of presidential elections. His election could signal a real partisan realignment as well.

I guess all of that's what makes it all so interesting.

Posted by AmPowerBlog at 3:50 PM 0 comments
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Katrina Pierson, National Spokesperson for Trump 2016, Defends Melania Trump's Speech (VIDEO)

It's kind of frustrating not getting a definitive resolution to this. I agree with Lewandowski.

Via MSNBC:



Posted by AmPowerBlog at 3:25 PM 0 comments
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