Nelson DeMille, By the Rivers of Babylon

When I'm out shopping for books, sometimes folks browsing will think out loud about their favorites. A few weeks back a woman asked me if I'd read Nelson DeMille. I hadn't, but now every time I see one of his books I'm reminded of this lady. In any case, I picked up a few of his on sale. He's prolific, though, so I'm going to go back and read some of his earliest works first.

This one's one of his initial hits, still in print.

At Amazon, Nelson DeMille, By the Rivers of Babylon.

Margaret George, The Confessions of Young Nero

*BUMPED.*

At Amazon, Margaret George, The Confessions of Young Nero.

ICYMI: Lloyd C. Douglas, The Robe

I just finished this one, which is one of the books I've been reading this last few weeks, as I've been devouring multiple novels at one time.

It's a novel of Ancient Rome, but especially the founding of Christianity. It's definitely magical at times. Apparently it went through multiple printings and was made into a motion picture starring Richard Burton.

Amazing.

At Amazon, Lloyd C. Douglas, The Robe: The Story of the Soldier Who Tossed for Christ's Robe and Won.

Colleen McCullough, Fortune's Favorites

After you've started the "Masters of Rome" series, you'll understand why folks rave about McCollough's writing.

For me, when you lug around a 900-page novel for a couple of weeks, and spend hours and hours plowing through it, the experience sticks with you for a while.

She's good. Highly recommended.

Here's the third in the series, Colleen McCullough, Fortune's Favorites.

Crystal King, Feast of Sorrow

At Amazon, Crystal King, Feast of Sorrow: A Novel of Ancient Rome.

Hurricane Irma Makes Landfall in Florida Keys (VIDEO)

At WSJ, "Hurricane Irma Makes Landfall Over Florida Keys (UPDATES)."

And, "Irma Leaves Battered Caribbean in Its Wake":

Hurricane Irma left widespread human and economic havoc in a string of tourism dependent Caribbean islands as the storm pulsed into Florida on Sunday.

Irma departed the last of those islands, Cuba, by Sunday morning after scraping along its northern coast. Buildings collapsed, trees and power lines tumbled, and roofs flew away in the 130-mile-per-hour winds.

Rain and seawater flooded towns and cities, including the colonial center of Havana, the country’s capital and a key tourist magnet. Communications were cut off, power was down and infrastructure was damaged in some affected parts of the island.

No deaths have yet been reported in Cuba, as authorities evacuated thousands of residents and tourists ahead of Irma´s arrival. But the hurricane killed at least 22 others across the northern Caribbean in four days of torment.

The storm’s damage comes just a few months before the beginning of the winter tourism season, which last year pumped $56 billion into the regional economy and provided 725,000 jobs, according to the World Travel and Tourism Council, an international industry group.

But Irma affected only a portion of the Caribbean. And while severe on some islands, the storm’s destruction was negligible in others, according to an early assessment by the Caribbean Tourism Organization.

Damage so far appears to have been heaviest in St. Martin’s and nearby islands in the U.S. and British Virgin Islands. And the storm’s impact still hasn’t been fully assessed in Cuba. Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic seem to largely have been spared.

“For the countries that are badly affected, it will take some time to get back on their feet,” Hugh Riley, an official with Caribbean Tourism Organization, said early Sunday.

The affected islands caught a break Saturday when Hurricane Jose, a Category 4 storm that had been on track to follow Irma’s path, turned to the north without making a Caribbean landfall.

Irma began its rampage far to the east of Cuba on Wednesday, tearing in the small two-island nation of Antigua and Barbuda in the northern Leeward Islands. Antigua, the larger of the two, was mostly spared by the storm...

More.

Kate Upton, Chrissy Teigen, Nina Agdal, Alyssa Miller, and Ariel Meredith (VIDEO)

At Sports Illustrated Swimsuit:

UCLA's Josh Rosen Throws Five Touchdowns in Big Victory Over Hawaii (VIDEO)

It's like I can't wait until the end of the season to see the crosstown matchup between USC and UCLA. It's going to be good. Both of these teams are smokin', looking to be contenders for the big bowl games, if not the national championship.

Following-up, "Sam Darnold Bring New Confidence to USC (VIDEO)."

At LAT, "Josh Rosen has a career-best five touchdown passes as UCLA downs Hawaii 56-23":

It was a continuance by design. Almost every pass completed. Plenty of touchdowns to go around. Enough yardage to nearly stretch from the Rose Bowl back to Westwood.

The epic display fashioned by UCLA quarterback Josh Rosen late in a crazy season-opening comeback bled into an equally productive sequel Saturday back on his home field. The only thing missing this time was the cliffhanger ending.

UCLA rolled to a 56-23 victory over Hawaii as Rosen continued his record-setting ways with a career-high five touchdown passes.

The Bruins (2-0) scored touchdowns on each of their first seven offensive drives with the exception of a one-play drive before halftime, giving them 12 touchdowns in 14 drives going back to the 35 unanswered points they unspooled at the end of their triumph over Texas A&M. The only other drive that UCLA didn’t score on during that stretch, Rosen took a knee in the final seconds against the Aggies.

“We have to expect to score every time we touch the ball and you can’t be happy with 70%, 80% success rates that normal people would consider good or whatnot,” Rosen said. “You have to set the bar unreasonably high and always strive for it.”

Rosen was nearly perfect, completing 22 of 25 passes for 329 yards, with one of the incompletions coming on a dropped pass. Over his last five quarters, Rosen has completed 41 of 51 passes for 621 yards and nine touchdowns without an interception.

It didn’t meet his standards.

“I had three incompletions today and I expect to have a perfect game every time I step on the field,” said Rosen, whose 12th game with at least 300 yards passing set a school record, edging Cade McNown’s 11 games. “It’s unreasonable, but I think that’s the standard you have to set for yourself. You have to strive for perfection and hope you fall on greatness along the way, stumble on greatness along the way.”

UCLA’s offense wasn’t great across the board. Its running game produced a middling 132 yards, including Nate Starks’ 42 yards in a starting role after Soso Jamabo was injured in practice earlier in the week.

Rosen was so prolific that it didn’t matter. He said in the days before the game that the offense’s sputtering start through 21/2 quarters last week was largely the result of learning new plays under first-year offensive coordinator Jedd Fisch, explaining that he wanted to “basically play a fifth quarter of what we were at last week and keep going where we left off.”

The Bruins did so in building leads of 14-0 after the first quarter and 35-7 at halftime...

More.

Sam Darnold Brings New Confidence to USC (VIDEO)

I watched.

USC looked a little rusty at times, but the Trojans combined a strong running game with Darnold's formidable passing offense. I like what I see.

Here's Bill Plaschke, who likes it too, at LAT, "The Sam Darnold of old is back, and he's brought USC new confidence":

The relief washed through the overheated USC football fans like that cool breeze that poured into the Coliseum.

In his second game of the season, Sam Darnold finally threw his first touchdown pass.

And his second. And his third. And his fourth.

One week after saying the muddled victory in baking temperatures against Western Michigan was “probably the worst I’ve felt after a game in college,” Darnold was soothed, the Trojans were refreshed, and their peskiest of rivals were rolled.

For only the third time in 10 games, USC actually beat Stanford — actually beat the Cardinal here, and actually beat them with smarts and toughness and a quarterback who epitomized both. This was a story of an athletic defense, acrobatic receivers and runners who flew behind a dominant offensive line. But it is a story that began and ended with Darnold, who threw for 316 yards and four touchdowns despite two more interceptions in a 42-24 victory Saturday at the Coliseum.

“It was nice to kind of feel like — it’s kind of cliché — but to kind of feel like my old self,” Darnold said.

From Darnold, Trojan fans love cliché, because cliché is him leading them to 11 consecutive wins while barely raising his voice. The unusual was Darnold being shut out against Western Michigan. The cliché was Saturday when at times it seemed the only person who could stop him was himself.

And you thought all the Los Angeles quarterback hype today would be about UCLA’s Josh Rosen...

Rosen had a great day against Hawaii, throwing for five TDs.

But keep reading. (More about Rosen shortly.)

Democrats Alienate Catholics in the Rustbelt

What else is new?

From Salena Zito, at the Washington Examiner, "Dems Give Away Rust Belt by Alienating Catholics":

OHIO VALLEY — A clip of Martha Plimpton's exuberance over the "best" abortion she ever had played out on the television overhead of a gas-station counter somewhere along U.S. Route 422 between Ohio and Pennsylvania.

A woman with a name tag noting her as the manager rolled her eyes and said to no one in particular as she went about stacking the shelves behind the counter, "And they wonder why people don't vote for Democrats around here anymore."

Plimpton, 46, is best known for her role in the 1980's Steven Spielberg classic kid adventure movie "The Goonies." She made her remark in an interview with Dr. Willie Parker at a #ShoutYourAbortion event in Seattle in June.

After saying Seattle was the home of some of her family, she went on to cheer what she did in her teens: "I also had my first abortion at the Seattle Planned Parenthood. Yay!"

With equal exuberance, she also revealed her Seattle abortion wasn't her last.

Actions like Plimpton's do not help the Democratic cause in achieving power and influence back in Washington, D.C. At least not with Main Street voters. Nor does it help Democrats win local races.

"Democrats used to debate the legal right to have one, and that was a point of view that was shared by most voters," said Michael Wear, a theologically conservative evangelical Christian and Democrat who served in Barack Obama's faith outreach office in the White House.

"I don't understand why, 14 months before a midterm election, why would you push 20 percent of voters who would love to support Democrats out the door? Better yet, why would you speak of pro-life Democrats as though they were some extraterrestrial who just landed on earth?" he said.

It is rare that anyone who has had an abortion celebrates it — Plimpton seems to fail to understand few in this country do. Maybe the privileged class celebrates abortions? Even if they did, that won't help the Democratic Party win back voters. Or is it the intellectual class that celebrates them? Even if they did, that doesn't win back majorities either. Or maybe it's the celebrity class that does? If so, there's not enough of them to win back the House or Senate.

In short, this is not the message you want to win every down-ballot seat the party has let waste away under the thrust of identity politics...

I hate to hate, but I do hate Democrats, and on this issue particularly.

More.

Jennifer Delacruz Sunday Forecast

Same thing.

I went to post this last night but the clip wasn't available yet.

I sure do love Ms. Jennifer, though. She's so sweet and worth the wait.

At ABC News 10 San Diego:

Rachel McCord in a Tank Top

At Taxi Driver, "Rachel McCord Braless in See-Through Tank Top."

President Trump Shows How it's Done

From Jill Lawrence, at USA Today, "Trump shows GOP how it's done: Scrap absolutism, deal with reality" (at Memeorandum):

The Freedom Caucus is the tail that aspires to wag a whole country though it represents just a sliver of Americans. Even within the House it's outnumbered by moderate centrists.

President Trump wrote a book on deals, and so did I. Mine is shorter and didn’t sell quite as many copies, but it was a deep dig into how political agreements are born. The process — slow, plodding, painstaking, strategic, and did I mention slow? — is nothing like what went on with Trump, Nancy Pelosi and Chuck Schumer. Nothing at all.

As a citizen, I’m thrilled by the lightning round between the Republican president and his two Democratic amigos. It feels strange but wonderful to get hurricane aid, keep the government in business and increase the U.S. borrowing limit (sparing the world a financial crisis) — all before we even began to type our traditional angst-ridden headlines about polarization, paralysis and brinksmanship.

As a liberal, I’m also pretty psyched. If Pelosi (the House Democratic leader) and Schumer (her Senate counterpart) are even half the geniuses Republicans seem to think they are, Democrats may be well positioned to help protect undocumented young immigrants in a program Trump just canceled, and to keep a lid on the deliverables to rich people who are anticipating huge tax cuts.

If I were a centrist Republican, I’d be intrigued by this hint of bipartisanship. Could it be that the GOP fever is finally breaking, five long years after Barack Obama predicted it would? If so, all it has taken is Obama’s exit from the stage, absolute Republican power, and a president like Trump.

It turns out that a lot of what Obama did wasn’t so god-awful. The problem was who did it (him) and in some cases how he did it — executive actions or, heaven forbid, party-line votes. Quick, pass the smelling salts.

The latest of many examples is the Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals program, or DACA. In the absence of congressional action on a new immigration law, Obama unilaterally started a permit system so people brought here illegally as children could work and study without fear of deportation. The conservative backlash was ferocious.

But now that Trump has canceled it, with a six-month grace period for Congress to “do your job,” as he put it, a growing number of Republicans — including Trump and House Speaker Paul Ryan — are looking for an escape hatch.  Whose idea was it, anyway, to destroy the lives of some 800,000 young people who are working, studying and have never broken the law? Who are engines of our economy, or could be, if we let them stay? It turns out it’s not popular to kick the “dreamers” out of America.

Turns out as well that repealing the Affordable Care Act, aka Obamacare, is not popular either — especially when the Congressional Budget Office has found that every variation on a replacement would cost people more, take away consumer protections, and insure far fewer — up to 24 million fewer in one case. Those protesting repeal at town meetings included conservatives and Trump voters as well as liberal Democrats. Those seeking a bipartisan compromise to stabilize markets and improve the law include more than a few Republican senators and governors. Those trying to get Congress to abandon repeal and move on include … Trump. At least as of Friday.

It wasn’t popular to pull America out of the Paris climate agreement, as Trump has done. It wouldn’t be popular to weaken fuel efficiency standards developed by the Obama administration, with consumers or even apparently with the auto industry.

And it won’t be popular if, as expected, the tax “reform” push by Trump and congressional Republicans turns out to be mostly about tax cuts for the rich. Three-quarters of Americans say Trump should not lower taxes on the wealthy and close to that many said a year ago that taxes should be raised on the wealthy.

Buoyed by gerrymandering and cultural shifts, Republicans have had years of success winning elections at every level. They have mistaken that as popular support for free-market health care, trickle-down economics, extensive deregulation and callous social policies. Will months of failure on Obamacare repeal, capped perhaps by a groundswell of support for DACA, finally drive the message home?

The aggressively conservative House Freedom Caucus has been like the tail wagging the GOP and aspiring to wag the whole country. But its three dozen hard-core conservatives don’t represent anything close to a majority of Americans. Even within the House, they may be outnumbered by the moderate centrists of the Tuesday Group, estimated to have as many as 50 members...

Trump needs to get Democrats to bend toward his will, not the other way around.

Bipartisanship is fine, as long as it tilts conservative.

That said, I like how Trump is going rogue. He's amazing sometimes.

More.

Thanks to the Reader Who Bought the Calphalon Classic Nonstick Omelet Fry Pan

We use Calphalon at our house. I love their cookware! Thanks for your support.

At Amazon, Calphalon 1932339 Classic Nonstick Omelet Fry Pan with Cover, 10 Inch, Grey.

Also, others purchased, Cat 6 Ethernet Cable 5ft ( 6 PACK ) (At a Cat5e Price but Higher Bandwidth) Flat Internet Network Cables - Cat6 Ethernet Patch Cable Short - Black Computer Lan Cable With Snagless RJ45 Connectors.

And, Favorest Garment Bag Cover Hanging Clothes Bag Dress Suit Coat Bag for Travel Carry Storage With Pocket Viewing Window Oxford Cloth Washable Breathable Durable Dustproof Mothproof (L, Black).

More, Household Essentials 14316-1 CedarFresh Red Cedar Wood Rings for Hangers - Set of 20.

And, Zober Premium Quality Space Saving Velvet Hangers Strong and Durable Hold Up To 10 Lbs - 360 Degree Chrome Swivel Hook - Ultra Thin Non Slip Suit Hangers - 50 pack (Ivory).

More, Storex Interlocking Book Bins, 4 3/4 x 12 5/8 x 7, 5 Color Set, Plastic (70105U06C).

Plus, Fire Gone 2 Pack with Brackets - 16 oz.

BONUS: Terry Goodkind, Wizard's First Rule (Sword of Truth, Book 1).

Professor Caroline Heldman on President Trump's Handling of Hurricanes (VIDEO)

She appeared yesterday at CBS News 2 Los Angeles:

Sue Townsend, Adrian Mole and the Weapons of Mass Destruction

I picked up a copy of Sue Townsend's, Adrian Mole and the Weapons of Mass Destruction.

The book's a bestseller, but not too many copies are available at Amazon (click that link for used copies).

So, check this one as well, which is fully available, The Secret Diary of Adrian Mole, Aged 13 3/4.

I love books. I just love 'em. I love finding little treasures I had no idea existed. I can't read everything, but I swear the hunt itself is enough to keep me going sometimes.

Enjoy.

And I hope everyone is well and safe. These a naturally dangerous times (as in Mother Nature).

Barbara Palvin 'Cheeky' in Curaçao (VIDEO)

Nice.

Irma's Approach Shifts to Gulf Coast (VIDEO)

At WSJ, "Irma’s Approach Shifts to Gulf Coast, Keeps Florida on Edge":

MIAMI — After days of preparation, Hurricane Irma—one of the most powerful storms to cross the Atlantic—is forecast to hit the Florida Keys around daybreak Sunday before continuing on a path that threatens catastrophic flooding along Florida’s Gulf Coast.

Deadly storm surges could inundate parts of the state’s southwest coast with up to 15 feet of water, the National Hurricane Center said, and much of the state will see “life-threatening wind impacts” regardless of the hurricane’s exact path.

Florida Gov. Rick Scott hammered home the danger from rising waters Saturday. “There’s a serious threat of significant storm surge flooding along the entire west coast of Florida” he said. “Think about that: 15 feet is devastating and will cover your house.”

The state of 20.6 million people has been readying itself for Irma as the storm barreled into the Caribbean, killing at least 22 people and battering islands with winds in excess of 150 miles per hour. Now Irma is headed for the U.S. mainland as a Category 3 storm that is expected to pick up strength overnight as it moves away from Cuba into warm open water.

Irma would bring a punishing cocktail of destructive winds, major storm surge, torrential rains, possible tornadoes and widespread power outages, said Alan Albanese, senior meteorologist for the National Weather Service in Key West.

“This is a very serious threat, potentially catastrophic,” he said. “A lot of people down here in the Keys have not experienced anything with the potential this system has.”

Florida officials have warned that Irma could be worse than Hurricane Andrew, the Category 5 storm that devastated South Florida 25 years ago. Andrew killed 61 people in the U.S. and caused nearly $48 billion in economic damage in 2017 dollars, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration—the costliest storm in U.S. history until Hurricane Katrina in 2005.

Parts of Florida were experiencing tropical-storm force winds Saturday evening. “We have been very aggressive in our preparation for this storm and now it’s upon us,” Mr. Scott said. “Every Floridian should take this seriously and be aggressive to protect their family.”

“The storm surge will rush in and it could kill you,” he said.

More than 76,000 electricity customers had lost power by early Saturday evening, mostly in Miami-Dade and Broward counties, a tiny fraction of the state’s total, according to the Florida Division of Emergency Management. The number is expected to grow.

Hurricane Irma’s westward shift toward the Gulf Coast brought some sense of relief to cities like Miami and Fort Lauderdale but heightened fears of catastrophic flooding on Florida’s Gulf Coast. The hurricane center warns the storm surge could reach 10 to 15 feet above ground from Captiva Island, west of Fort Myers, to the southern tip of the Florida peninsula. That warning is an increase from the 8-to-12-foot range forecast Friday night.

Residents on the state’s west coast quickly shifted plans and bunkered down.

Wrede McCollum, who lives on Pine Island off Florida’s southwest coast, had planned to stay at a friend’s house—despite a mandatory evacuation order—because of reports of log-jammed highways and packed shelters. But after seeing the storm’s projected westward turn, Mr. McCollum and his friends decided to go to a shelter.

“The current track seems headed right for St. James City,” where he lives, he said by text. “Jangling a few nerves here.”

Lisa Tilson, a Boca Raton native, has been through many hurricanes but she worried about this one. She drove to her mother’s house in Sun City Center, a retirement community near Tampa on the Gulf Coast, only to find herself more squarely in Irma’s path. The family rushed to protect the home.

As the storm approached Saturday afternoon, Ms. Tilson planned to stay in one hallway with her daughters, while her mother, her mother’s partner and Ms. Tilson’s 80-year-old aunt stay in another, she said. “That’s where we are going to ride it out,” she said. “I’ve had a weird feeling in my stomach about this storm since I first heard about it.”

More than 6.3 million Florida residents, about 30% of the total, have been told to leave their homes, state officials say. Evacuations have led to long lines at gas stations, fuel shortages, traffic jams and overrun hotel rooms.

More than 70,000 Floridians have taken refuge in more than 385 shelters around the state...

More.

Shop Emergency Supplies

*BUMPED.*

At Amazon.

See especially, Mountain House Just In Case 4-Day Emergency Food Supply.

More, Pack of 4 Flashlights, BYBLIGHT 150 Lumen Ultra Bright LED Flashlight, Zoomable Tactical Flashlight with 3 Modes for Indoors and Outdoors (Camping, Cycling, Emergency, and Gift-Giving).

And, ENERGIZER E95 Max ALKALINE D BATTERY Made in USA Exp. 12-2024 or later - 24 Count.

Here, Crystal Geyser Water Co Alpine Spring Water.

Plus, TITAN Two-Sided Emergency Mylar Survival Blankets, 5-Pack | Designed for NASA Space Exploration and Heat Retention | Perfect for Marathons, Emergency Kits, and Go-Bags.

Here, Amazon Jungle Survival Knife with Sheath.

Still more, Military Outdoor Clothing Never Issued U.S. Military Canteen.

BONUS: John 'Lofty' Wiseman, SAS Survival Handbook, Third Edition: The Ultimate Guide to Surviving Anywhere.

Irma’s Surge Poses Big Risk to Coast

Oh boy, this one's a doozy.

At WSJ, "Hurricane Irma’s Surge Poses Major Risk to Florida":

The size of this monster...holy hell. pic.twitter.com/naM5tQpXZC

— Alexis In NH (@AlexisinNH) September 9, 2017

Hurricane Irma, the most powerful storm to take aim at Florida in decades, is on a path that presents the worst-case scenario for deadly storm surges and powerful winds when it strikes the state Sunday, threatening millions of homes and businesses.

Irma is a massive storm, covering an area more than double the size of Florida, and generating sustained winds of more than 150 miles an hour. It has already killed more than 20 people after flattening the Caribbean islands of St. Martin and Barbuda as it arced north toward Florida. The hurricane’s impact could reach as far north as Indiana and Illinois, forecasters say, affecting about 50 million people.

Long lines of cars clogged Florida’s highways after authorities and forecasters implored the state’s 20.6 million people to leave low-lying coastal lands expected to be inundated by hurricane-driven seawater.

Storm surges, one of the most deadly threats of Hurricane Irma, are forecast to be 9 feet to 20 feet high, depending on whether the storm hits the peninsula from the Atlantic on the east or the shallower Gulf of Mexico to the west.

“If it comes in from the Gulf side, Tampa Bay could just get hammered and that really is one of the big catastrophic events we have been worried about for some time,” said Kyle Mandli, assistant professor of mathematics at Columbia University.

But Mr. Mandli warns the entire state could remain at risk if the hurricane tracks up the middle of the state and causes storm surges on both coasts, though those would probably not be as high.

With Irma now projected to make landfall in the Florida Keys about daybreak Sunday, weather experts say the flooding could begin hours earlier because surges from a hurricane start to hit land in advance of the storm’s center. The surge peaks as the hurricane eyewall crosses onto land, said Robert Bea, professor emeritus at the University of California’s Center for Catastrophic Risk Management. “We’re talking several hours of surge,” Mr. Bea said.

Storm surges, created when the high wind of a hurricane forces ocean waters onshore, account for half of the deaths and most of the destruction caused by the majority of hurricanes, weather experts say.

Miami-Dade County Mayor Carlos Gimenez cited a possible life-threatening storm surge when he expanded the county’s evacuation zone on Thursday, now affecting more 650,000 residents.

Much of the estimated $62 billion in U.S. damage from superstorm Sandy in 2012 was caused by the storm surge that slammed the Eastern seaboard, according to an analysis by the U.S. Geological Survey.  Storm surge was cited by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration as the major cause of the $75 billion in destruction along the Gulf Coast from 2005’s Katrina, which leveled beachfront communities in Mississippi and inundated the city of New Orleans.

On Florida’s coasts, which will face the brunt of the Category 4 hurricane’s destructive force, about 3.5 million residential and commercial properties are at risk of storm-surge damage and almost 8.5 million properties are at risk of wind damage, according to data provider CoreLogic .

The last Florida storm that was the size of Hurricane Irma, which was downgraded to Category 4 from Category 5 on Friday, was Hurricane Andrew in 1992. That storm was originally classified as Category 4 but was reclassified in 2002 to a Category 5.

Catastrophe-modeling firm Karen Clark & Co. said a repeat of Hurricane Andrew on the same path as in 1992 would cause $50 billion in insured losses. The same storm directly hitting Miami today would cause more than $200 billion in losses, the firm said.


Miami, however, is protected by a rapid drop offshore thanks to the continental shelf, which is unlike Florida’s mostly shallow Gulf of Mexico coast. As a result, the surge hitting Miami from a Category 4 storm like Irma is expected to total up to 9 feet, compared with as high as 20 feet if it were to hit more along the Gulf Coast, according to NOAA.

The highest waves are typically centered on the leading right side of the storm, where counterclockwise winds in the Northern Hemisphere push the bulk of a hurricane’s destructive force. The surge waves are made even higher when they travel across shallow coastal waters, said Robert Bohlin, a meteorologist with the Central Pacific Hurricane Center in Honolulu.

Historically, the biggest storm surges in U.S. history have taken place in shallow Gulf waters. Hurricane Katrina in 2005 produced the nation’s highest recorded surge of 27.8 feet at Pass Christian, Miss. At least 1,500 people died in Katrina—many from the surge—and entire beachfront neighborhoods were washed away by the waves, NOAA officials said.

But Irma is forecast to take such an unusual track—essentially up the length of the Sunshine State—that hurricane experts aren’t exactly sure how the surge pattern will play out. If it shifts slightly to the west, much higher surge could inundate parts of Florida’s Gulf Coast, said Columbia’s Mr. Mandli.

“Even a shift of a few kilometers could be the difference between a huge disaster and something more manageable,” Mr. Mandli said.

Damage from a storm surge is considered flooding, which isn’t covered by standard homeowners insurance policies. Flood damage is largely covered by the federal government’s National Flood Insurance Program, which provides homeowners up to $250,000 to repair a home and $100,000 for personal possessions.

Homeowners in high-risk flood zones are required by their mortgage providers to buy flood insurance, but consumers outside those areas often forgo the coverage.

Businesses can buy federal flood insurance, which covers up to $500,000 for damage to a building and $500,000 for its contents. Commercial-property insurance for large businesses often includes flood coverage...

Still more.