Saturday, November 3, 2012

Romney Momentum in Pennsylvania


One small problem is that the survey's two weeks old. Susquehanna's expected to have a new poll out in the morning, and boy, the anticipation couldn't be higher. The New York Times had this yesterday: "In Shift, Romney Campaign Approaches Pennsylvania With A New Urgency." And Dick Morris discussed the Pennsylvania polls on Sean Hannity's last week. And here's this, just in from the Allentown Morning Call, "Thousands greet Paul Ryan near Harrisburg":
MIDDLETOWN, Dauphin County —— When Mitt Romney suggested several weeks ago that he would win Pennsylvania, the challenge seemed almost insurmountable.

But when Paul Ryan asked a raucous Pennsylvania crowd of GOP faithful Saturday afternoon if they were ready to help the Republican ticket win the state, he was serious about the prospects.

"It feels really good to be standing in here with Pennsylvania today," the Republican vice presidential candidate said.

Throughout Ryan's 30-minute remarks inside a Harrisburg International Airport hangar, the crowd was deafening, at times chanting, "Three more days, Three more days."

A month ago, with President Barack Obama holding a 7- to 10-point lead over Romney in several Pennsylvania polls, the GOP likely did not expect to be having huge political rallies here with less than 72 hours until Election Day.

For most of the year, Pennsylvania was widely considered a sure thing for the Democrats. But in recent days, the Republicans have launched a concerted effort to win its 20 electoral votes. Democrats say the Republicans are looking to make up for shortcomings in other key states, but Republicans insist they see an opening in Pennsylvania.

Ryan's campaign stop touched off a whirlwind three days of political activity in Pennsylvania. Romney will headline a rally in Bucks County on Sunday. And former President Bill Clinton will hold three events across Pennsylvania on Monday to make the closing pitch for Obama.

When Romney was last in the state in September for a Philadelphia fundraiser and a rally in the suburbs, he said he'd win Pennsylvania. At that time, neither campaign and no super PAC was airing ads on Pennsylvania television. And Obama had a comfortable lead in the polls.

In the last week, both campaigns bought air time, as did a handful of GOP super PACs. And the most recent public poll showed Obama's lead in the state had narrowed to 4 points.
Well, the GOP ticket's taking it to Obama in the Keystone State. It frankly doesn't look nearly as close as Ohio, but Team Romney's got information that I don't --- internal polling, especially --- so I'll just hang onto my seat like everyone else. Twenty electors is a huge prize, and a win in Pennsylvania would basically throw the map wide open for the GOP ticket. Penn and Ohio for Romney and I'd have to agree with Price Foley: kiss it goodbye for the Democrats. I'll have more on this later...

MORE: I have to add this quotation from the Times' piece, since it's so out of place for a political report at the newspaper:
Pennsylvania has voted for the Democratic presidential nominee in every election for the last 20 years. Independent pollsters have called it the Republicans’ white whale. Indeed, polls show Mr. Obama ahead, albeit by a shrinking margin. And his senior political strategist, David Axelrod, even joked this week that he would shave off his mustache of 40 years if they lose here.

But there is a tangible sense — seen in Romney yard signs on the expansive lawns of homes in the well-heeled suburbs, and heard in the excited voices of Republican mothers who make phone calls to voters in their spare time — that the race is tilting toward Mr. Romney.
That's the enthusiasm gap, and it could be decisive in Pennsylvania on Tuesday.

Okay, back to our regularly scheduled programming.