Will Rudy Be the Republican Nominee?

The Economist has an analysis of Rudolf Giuliani's presidential campaign. Will Rudy take on Hillary? Here's a key snippet:

Mr Giuliani's reputation as tough on terrorists rests largely on his unflappability after the World Trade Centre was attacked. That is a less substantial achievement than rolling back crime or welfare, but it is what television viewers remember about the man who has been dubbed “America's mayor”. He adds to his reputation with ferocious displays of hawkishness, vowing to remain “on offence” in Iraq and promising unflinching support for Israel. One of his foreign-policy advisers, Norman Podhoretz, urges President George Bush to bomb Iran's nuclear sites as soon as practically possible—though Mr Giuliani does not go so far.

Mr Giuliani's hawkishness could be a vital factor in his struggle to win over Republicans who think him too soft on social issues such as abortion. Many pro-life conservatives are also pro-Israel and convinced that Christendom is threatened by “Islamofascists”. Mr Giuliani addresses such audiences with deference. He admits to being an imperfect candidate. He admits that they will not always agree with him, but insists that they can always trust him. This is a veiled jab at Mr Romney, whose recent conversion to pro-lifery smacks to many of opportunism.

Some of these social conservatives are nonetheless so appalled by Mr Giuliani that they threaten to back a third-party candidate if he wins the Republican nomination. Others think that would be foolish, since it would virtually guarantee victory for the Democrats. But many Republicans fall into a third category—they are simply unaware that Mr Giuliani is socially liberal. A recent Gallup poll found that only 37% knew he was pro-choice and only 18% knew he favoured civil unions for gays.

This makes the race for the Republican nomination extremely hard to predict. As the primaries draw near, will voters learn more about Mr Giuliani and reject him? Some undoubtedly will. But others may not have bothered to find out where he stands on abortion because they do not think it matters much. After all, the president cannot ban the practice. The most he can do is to pick pro-life Supreme Court judges who, if confirmed by a substantially pro-choice Senate, might conceivably one day overturn Roe v Wade and hand the issue back to the states. This is highly unlikely, though, and most voters pay more attention to other issues.

For many Republicans, Mr Giuliani's chief virtue is that he has the best shot at beating Hillary Clinton. His boosters say his moderate social views could lure swing voters and bring big blue states such as New York and California back into play, at least forcing the Democrats to spend time and money defending them. Perhaps, but many swing voters will be repulsed by his hawkishness or his dodgy friends. (His third police chief, Bernard Kerik, is currently being investigated for tax fraud; were he to be indicted, that would be awkward for Mr Giuliani.)

Read the whole thing.

Giuliani's nowhere assured the nomination, and the article includes some polling data on voter preferences on both the Democratic and Republican candidates. As I've noted before, Giuliani's not my first pick, but I won't be upset if he wins the nomination.