Donald Trump has jumped to the front of Republicans’ 2016 presidential candidate field nationally, holding that position even after a spate of incendiary comments by the real-estate magnate about Mexican migrants, other GOP candidates and party leaders, a Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll has found.More.
The poll, the latest of several national surveys to register the Trump surge, found that 19% of Republican primary voters picked Mr. Trump as their first choice for president, followed by 15% for Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker and 14% for Jeb Bush, the former Florida governor who led the field in the last Journal/NBC survey, in June.
The new poll, whose full results will be released Monday, was based on a survey conducted July 26-30, after Mr. Trump made widely publicized controversial statements, such as when he disparaged former GOP presidential nominee John McCain.
The differences among the top-tier candidates are small enough that they are within the poll’s margin of sampling error. Still, the double-digit jump among Republicans picking Mr. Trump as their first choice—up from 1% in the June poll—was significant.
What’s more, Republicans who don’t see Mr. Trump as their first choice seem to be warming to him. The share of GOP voters who pick him as second choice rose to 11% in the new survey from 3% in June.
The poll could be a factor in determining which candidates appear in this Thursday’s prime-time candidate debate, the first of the GOP primary campaign. The event is being hosted by Fox News, which is limiting the 9 p.m. debate to 10 of the 17 declared GOP candidates, choosing those who rank highest in the five most recent national polls released by Tuesday.
Candidates who don’t make the cut will be relegated to a separate forum to be held before the main event on Thursday.
The new survey also underscores the unsettled nature of the GOP primary race as Republican voters survey a large field, including many lesser-known candidates. Mr. Trump, who announced his presidential campaign in mid-June, has the advantage of high name recognition, celebrity appeal and a populist message that taps into a powerful anti-Washington vein in the electorate.
The poll found that almost the entire GOP field seemed to suffer at least a temporary setback as a result of Mr. Trump’s abrupt rise. Most major candidates lost ground compared with last month’s poll. One exception was Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas, who was picked as a first choice by 9%, up from 4% last month. Mr. Cruz, like Mr. Trump, has been campaigning as an outsider with a blunt antiestablishment message.
Mr. Trump had a particularly strong showing among GOP poll respondents who said it is more important for their party’s nominee to be a strong leader than it is to share their views on issues. Mr. Trump does somewhat better among GOP women than do other candidates: 20% of female GOP primary voters name him as their first choice, followed by 16% who pick Mr. Bush.
In the race for a spot on this week’s main debate stage, the most uncertainty surrounds the fate of three candidates who are on the cusp of making the top-10 event—New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie; Texas Gov. Rick Perry and Ohio Gov. John Kasich. In the new Journal/NBC poll, all three were picked as first choice by 3% of GOP voters...
Plus, here's NBC's write-up, at Memeorandum, "Donald Trump Surges in New NBC News/WSJ Poll."
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