Tuesday, December 29, 2015

The Republican Road to Absolute Chaos?

Pfft. It's not going to be that bad.

From Benjamin Ginsberg, at the Wall Street Journal, "Flirting With a Chaotic GOP Convention" (via Memeorandum):
Reports of Republican officials convening a closed-door session over the possibility of a deadlocked convention are feeding speculation over what happens if 19 weeks of primaries, caucuses and conventions leave a muddled picture.

The past nine Republican conventions began with a presumptive nominee. And the chances of delegates arriving at the convention in Cleveland next July with no clear nominee remain small. But the odds are no longer infinitesimal thanks to the multicandidate field, required early proportional voting, and the fact that only 16.2% of the delegates will have been chosen in decisive, winner-take-all contests.

Three convention scenarios can emerge after 56 states and territories choose their delegates between Feb. 1 and June 7: There will be a clear winner, a bunched up field of several candidates, or a leader who can’t get a majority of delegates on the first ballot. The latter two scenarios would make Cleveland uncharted territory.

Here’s how each of those scenarios could come about...
Keep reading, FWIW.

Actually, I expect we'll have a clear leader by Super Tuesday, March 1.

But we'll see. We'll see.